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Joe Rogan: If NASCAR’s not a monopoly, UFC isn’t either (and they should buy K-1)

By Zach Arnold | November 1, 2011

Our friend Dave Walsh thinks K-1 would be a great buying opportunity. Joe Rogan agrees with him. However, I don’t think Dana White can buy out K-1 because, after all, Viacom buying out Bellator means that UFC is a “Mom & Pop” MMA organization.

“You know, people always say that the UFC is a monopoly, you know, they’re actually being even investigated by someone, Federal, Federal Trade, FTC, Federal Trade Commission and they’re being investigated as being a monopoly but… it’s not a monopoly, they just do it better than anybody else. It’s like you can’t say that NASCAR is a monopoly but… if you wanted to say, hey, let’s start up our own fucking car league, you know, we’re just going to race cars all across the country. What are you going to call it, the New Car League? Everybody would be like, ‘but it’s not NASCAR, right? No.’ Well, it’s not NASCAR has a monopoly, it’s just they’re the best at it. You could start your own car league if you want to.

“That’s the same thing with the UFC. The UFC’s not a monopoly, you know? They just have the best fighters right now because they have the most money and the most popularity. But they built this shit up, man! If you want to do it by yourself, do it by yourself. And Bellator’s doing it by themselves. There’s a company called Bellator, they’re fucking, they’ve got some good fighters, man. They’ve got a good show, they got this guy Jimmy Smith who does the commentary, he’s really good at it, he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu, knows what the fuck is going on, he gives excellent commentary, their color guy’s really good. They have a good show. They do a different format where they have tournaments and they hold this tournament and the tournament takes place over several weeks or several months rather and then they pick a guy who wins the tournament and then he fights for the title and, you know, they do a fucking real good job, man, they do a real good job of it and they just got bought out by Viacom.

Loretta Hunt: Eddie Alvarez almost bought part of Bellator before Viacom did

“So, it’s not that the UFC is a monopoly, there’s other people in the game. They’ve just been in the game longer, they spent more money, they invested more time, they do it better! It’s that simple. You know, it’s like… there’s a certain amount of people that whenever you get to a certain level of success, they want to think that you did something wrong to get there. But if it wasn’t for the UFC, man, nobody would have invested that kind of money. Eventually, I think, MMA would have slowly broken through to the mainstream over the course of who knows how many years or it could have been wound up like soccer where everybody thought it was going to make it but it never did. You remember soccer when we were kids? They were pushing soccer like soccer’s eventually going to be a big professional sport? I remember that. But they just never quite marketed it correctly, never quite got through…

“If someone’s smart, if someone’s got balls, listen to me right now… This is the thing… K-1 kickboxing. K-1 kickboxing is some of the much exciting shit to watch in the world. If you watch the highest level of kickboxers, God damn is that shit exciting. It’s so fucking fun to watch. They go at it, man, it’s only three rounds, even title fights are like three rounds, they fucking go to WAR, man. And some of the fights are five rounds, I think, but either way… they’re fun and it’s all striking, which is what a lot of people like, a lot of people don’t like the wrestling aspect of MMA. I love it because I think it’s the most realistic sport in the world, I mean, it is real fighting, it’s a sport of real fighting encompassing all the different techniques. So, to me, it’s more complicated, it’s more cerebral, there’s more strategy involved because there’s more variables. I’m always going to be a huge fan of primarily MMA. If I had one thing to watch it would be MMA, but I love fucking kickboxing, too. I love watching it. It’s so much more exciting than regular boxing and we know how boxing is still doing well, people still want to see a good boxing match, you know? If Manny Pacquiao’s fighting, people are still going to pack in to see that guy light people up. But, man, if you watch some high-level kickboxing, boxing becomes boring because they can’t kick! They’re not doing all this other crazy shit. You watch like, I went to the Muay Thai Professional League, they had a show in Long Beach and I went down to check that shit out… God damn it was fun, dude, there was some of the best kickboxers in the world and I was in the front row and watching these guys go at it, man, it’s wiiiiiilllllllld, wild shit because they don’t have to worry about being taken down, there’s no takedowns. So, they’re just fucking teeing off on each other, man. Wild head kick knockouts and spinning backfist knockouts and cutting people with elbows, it was nuts, man. It’s a crazy sport. I can’t believe that it doesn’t get the press that it deserves because maybe it’s not as good as MMA but, God damn, if it ain’t a close second. And it’s not being promoted! Someone’s completely dropped the ball, you know?

“The people who own K-1, they owe a lot of money, man. They want to start fights but they want to not half to pay all the fighters that they owe money to and they owe just fucking untold millions of dollars to fighters that they haven’t paid. So, they’re in a bad financial situation but it’s because they didn’t promote it correctly. If someone in like the UFC came along, if Zuffa came along and picked up K-1, they’re not interested in it, I’ve talked to them about it, but if someone like that did, if Mark Cuban did or someone with balls and a lot of money who loves the sport, God damn that’s a gold mine. It’s a God damn gold mine. Mark Cuban, go do it! You already got Michael Schiavello working for you.”

Topics: Bellator, K-1, Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 35 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Carlos Condit can’t fight GSP & Nick Diaz can’t live in a good neighborhood

By Zach Arnold | November 1, 2011

Agent Malki Kawa released a statement to Inside MMA regarding UFC pushing Carlos Condit to the side in order to book Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz for their Super Bowl weekend PPV event in Las Vegas. The message is delivered to you courtesy of Kenny Rice as Superman, Bas Rutten as Captain America, Ben Askren as a golden pimp, Tyron Woodley tripping out, and Don Frye as… Don Frye.

We are obviously disappointed in the UFC’s decision to cancel its commitment with Carlos Condit to give another fighter an opportunity at the Welterweight title based on emotional reactions from UFC 137. Contrary to what has been stated, Carlos did not step aside to allow this to happen, and would not just hand over an opportunity for him to achieve his greatest career goal, one that he has earned through his strong performances in the Octagon. No option was given to him.

For the second time in less than two weeks, Carlos has had an opportunity swept out from beneath his feet. He has shown nothing but pure class in his drive to the title, and will continue to do so. Carlos does not need motivation to fight for the title, he already has it. This situation will only motivate Carlos more. He will move forward and continue to train at the level that has made him the legitimate number one contender for the UFC Welterweight championship, and he is looking forward to the opportunity to earn that title.

I guess there won’t be main event butt patch ad negotiations any time soon. Ben Askren is not down with the way UFC has handled the situation.

“Yeah, if the UFC guarantees you a fight they should follow through on the guarantee even if that means making (Nick) Diaz wait. So, I could see where he’s real upset.”

Mr. Woodley doesn’t find the situation cool, either.

“I don’t think any fighter should step to the side. If you’re in this sport not to be in the #1 guy in the world and to be a champion, I mean it’s too grueling of a sport and too hard for you to be training just for you to be sitting around, you know, for giggles. So, I think, you know, any fighter in their right mind would never step to the side. And I don’t believe in a line. If you can jump the line, jump the line. Because on any day, any fighter can beat anybody. You get that chance, you take it. I can see his frustration. I definitely would be frustrated.”

Meanwhile, Nick Diaz wants you to know that he’s getting no sympathy from anyone about his struggles in life.

“I go running all the time around my neighborhood, you know, out of the bad neighborhood and into a good neighborhood where I like to run. I run by these nice, huge houses with these big yards and fountains everywhere and they have these people have like their, you know, little picnic patio, little side yard, pool, all this stuff, right? Then I take the circle around and go back into my neighborhood where my car gets robbed, you know, (people) out in front of my house looking for cigarette butts or something or some friends might have left some or its, you know…. It’s ridiculous.

“My brother moved and it’s like… it’s a long story, man. I don’t go buying a house in the middle of all this training. I didn’t go to school for that, you know? I started training jiu-jitsu when I was 16 years old. I went at it 100% because I already knew I could beat all these guys. So… If I had a half of a second to kind of situate something, then you know that’d be that. Everyone wants to make their little jokes and laugh and Dana says something and all you guys laugh at me. That’s not funny, all right? A fighter just backed out of the fight like Georges did, I could have gotten my life together. Yeah, I could have thrown some money on something, right? And I wouldn’t have nothing to complain about. But, unfortunately, that’s not the situation I’ve been in and nobody knows what it is, you know. But it is what it is and it’s not a good time.”

Don Frye has decided to step in and bring us some life wisdom:

“I saw some gal so beautiful, man, I’ll tell you… I’d drag my pecker in a mile of shattered glass just to stand in the shadow and…”

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 50 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

UFC 137 (10/29 Las Vegas): BJ Penn, Mirko Cro Cop retire after losses

By Zach Arnold | October 29, 2011

Location: 10/29 Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV

Dark matches

Main card

UFC 137 takeaways

BJ Penn didn’t take his conditioning seriously enough against Nick Diaz and paid the price. He finishes his career out with a great battle but once again got tired. I didn’t expect him to get tired the way he did… but it happened. By the third round, Diaz was able to take the advantage and it was over at that point. If the fight had been five rounds, I didn’t think Penn stood much of a chance. Three rounds? I thought it would be short enough for the conditioning issues not to pop up. I was wrong.

Mirko Cro Cop’s retirement hurts the UFC Japan show. Yes, UFC got a sold show deal with Dentsu, the second-largest Japanese ad agency. So, their risk in running the vanity show in Japan is limited. With that said, Dentsu reportedly wanted to run a PRIDE nostalgia show and that ain’t going to happen if you can’t have Nogueira or Cro Cop on the card. Mirko said that if he had beaten Roy Nelson that ‘back home’ his supporters would have said he beat up a fat guy. Well, he lost to that fat guy on Saturday night. I still felt that Roy as a 75% favorite was too high, but that doesn’t mean that I didn’t think he was going to lose at any point.

Tyson Griffin’s career is in crisis. Griffin started out as a -280 favorite against Bart Palaszewski and it swelled up to -320 because Griffin became a parlay play. If you had paired him with Donald Cerrone (-240) and BJ Penn (when he was -115), the parlay was paying out +260 odds. I was very nervous about Tyson in this fight because of what I saw in his showing against Takanori Gomi last year. That Gomi fight, for one reason or another, altered Tyson’s career path. He does not fight smart and he’s getting into these stand-up firefights that take the one strength of his opponents and magnify them. Of all the +300 guys on the card, Bart was the one I had the most confidence in. Very excited to see his hands fly like they did.

Donald Cerrone is ripping through the UFC competition. I love it. Not only does he win, he does it with style and takes no prisoners. He’s gotten better each time he fights. He finished Dennis Siver so fast, Spike TV had time to show Brandon Vera’s three round fight. Speaking of…

What the hell happened to Brandon Vera? He looks so damn average out there as a fighter now. It’s unbelievable. Eliot Marshall tagged him and had him in big trouble. I remember Vera when he was touted as the next big thing and now… he looks like just another fighter. What went wrong?

Hatsu Hioki barely broke the Japanese curse. I said the -320 line on him as favorite over George Roop was ridiculous and rightfully so. Roop may be inconsistent but the guy’s got some talent and Hioki’s going to find out that the level of competition in Japan in 2011 is so much lower in strength than what the UFC battlefield has in store for him. He escaped with a win here but I wouldn’t be very comforted if I was him.

When Cheick Kongo fights smart, he’s pretty damn good. That’s the key to every Kongo fight. Are you going to get the stupid crazy Kongo that you saw in the Pat Barry fight or are you going to get the superior Kongo like we saw against Matt Mitrione? I thought the odds were very low on the ‘books for Kongo. He was an underdog! This is the same guy who gave Cain Velasquez some trouble. At least Matt didn’t get knocked out but it was not a good fight on paper for him and we saw why tonight.

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, UK, Zach Arnold | 81 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

MMA Link Club: The even steven UFC 137 bout between BJ Penn & Nick Diaz

By Zach Arnold | October 28, 2011

Over/under on the UFC 137 PPV buy rate: 375,000. Give me your prediction.

I went back-and-forth on setting this line. I actually think 375,000 is a respectable number and here’s why:

1) This is an even, competitive fight in the minds of fans. The difference, of course, between an even fight like Frankie Edgar/Gray Maynard and BJ Penn/Nick Diaz is that one fight can draw due to the personalities & fight styles while the other one cannot. Nick Diaz has a hardcore following now that’s almost as loyal as the following Fedor had. Penn is the big-name veteran who people really like (except when he’s fighting GSP).

2) A lot of people are interested in betting on the fight. From the minute this fight was announced, there was respectable action and a lot of it was in favor of Diaz. There’s still a lot of pro-Diaz sentiment out there despite the fact that Penn has more paths to victory in a three-round fight. As we warned, the money was heading towards Diaz until fight week. This week, the veteran bettors and media writers have been betting on Penn and his price is now from -115 to -140 (and could go higher).

3) Potential for an emotional meltdown from Nick Diaz. This is the same guy who got into a fracas in Nashville on CBS and had Gus Johnson acting the way Gus Johnson does. You never know what to expect. He’s always blaming someone else for his problems in life and always has a chip on his shoulder about, well, everything. I definitely think that there’s just as big of an audience that wants to see the guy implode against Penn as there is an audience of hardcore Diaz backers who think he can do no wrong.

Throw it all together… and I expect a very eventful main event. The chances that the fight ends up sucking? Under 20%. I’m bullish on this fight delivering the goods.

One weird item, though — there’s a report claiming that Nick Diaz passed his pre-fight drug test. Wait, why are we hearing this news now about him when we never hear anything about pre-fight drug test results of other fighters? By the way, Mr. Kizer, same-day drug testing would be more effective at catching doping.

If you haven’t had a chance to check out MMA Payout’s Blue Book on business stats, you should go out of your way to do so. Great resource.

We don’t have an article link for MMA content on NBC Sports this week because NBC did not post any new MMA articles within the last week.

Member sites of the MMA Link Club

This week’s MMA Link Club featured stories

Five Ounces of Pain: BJ Penn focused on winning fights, nothing else

He seems very, very relaxed this week during his media interviews. Very confident. He clearly thinks Cesar Gracie is nuts.

MMA Fighting (Mike Chiappetta): Mirko Cro Cop says Saturday could be his last fight in the UFC

Prediction — it won’t. UFC Japan will end up being his last fight. Dentsu is going to want to see him there. Then again, given his past history with agent Ken Imai and how things fell apart in Japan, who knows if he wants to touch down there again. UFC Japan will now be a PPV show. As we noted in the last link club, Shu Hirata claims that Dentsu, Japan’s second largest ad agency, bought a sold show from the UFC. So, for UFC it’s an easy way to run a vanity show without losing much cash. Dentsu has plenty of experience with PRIDE & K-1. The only reason they would buy a show is if they thought they could pitch it onto a broadcast network. However, the political climate isn’t that favorable to them. I still think they will have to settle with a TV Tokyo deal, which is not that impactful.

I still think the odds are too lop-sided in favor of Roy Nelson for this fight. 75% is an awfully high number given how Nelson looked against Frank Mir. Yes, Roy’s had a good training camp and Mir has been helping out, but for a non-Top 10 heavyweight to get that much love?

Cage Potato: ESPN’s MMA Live host Jon Anik joins UFC broadcast team

This is a very intriguing story and a sign that Fox is going to have some power in their dealings with Zuffa. What this sets up is a scenario that is all too common with fans of other sports that Fox covers — announcer anger.

Take baseball for instance. If you put the SF Giants combination of Duane Kuiper & Mike Krukow on the World Series, you would have a hell of a call. Same deal if you inserted Marty Brennaman as the man. However, Fox has put Joe Buck and Tim McCarver on World Series telecasts forever and it drives baseball fans nuts. Same deal with the football coverage where you get Buck & Troy Aikman as the “A-Team” despite Fox having better commentators (merit-wise) doing lesser-watched games (e.g. Ron Pitts).

Do I think Jon Anik will embarrass himself on the UFC broadcasts? No. He’s a professional. He’s polished. He studies and does his job. There’s nothing outlandish about him. However, what his strength is also happens to be his weakness. He definitely fits the bill of a ‘network broadcaster’ in that he often can be anti-septic while being respectable at the same time. I personally have no problems with him at all doing MMA telecasts like he did with Bellator on ESPN Deportes. However, I suspect he’s going to catch a lot of hell from fans who think he’s not in Mike Goldberg’s league. I will say this in favor of Jon — he definitely will bring a different feel to the announce table.

I congratulate Jon for finding his golden parachute in getting out of what was a dead-end situation with ESPN & MMA Live and taking the gig with Fox/Zuffa. Just like Bjorn Rebney found his parachute with Viacom, Jon Anik found his landing spot. Good for him. With that said, the legacy of MMA Live is a show that had lots of potential and just didn’t go anywhere. It came off as a broadcast with no emotion or impact. Luke Thomas often talked about how the show could be so much more than what it ended up being. That is not a knock against the hosts who were involved in the show. I like Jon Anik, I really like Pat Miletich’s analysis, and I always think Kenny Florian is a pro on camera. However, the format always felt flat and unorganic. It’s too bad.

MMA Mania: Roy Nelson 2.0 — ‘I’d have to cut my leg off to make Light Heavyweight’

That picture of him and Forrest Griffin is just so ridiculous and freaky. That beard…

5th Round: UFC Undisputed 3 welterweight roster released

What’s your gut feeling on how this game will turn out?

Bleacher Report: Nick Diaz vs. BJ Penn head-to-toe breakdown

Actually a very good look at the fight and how it likely will play out.

Middle Easy: The not-so-unreasonable $25 UFC 137 bet that will put $12,631.70 in your pocket

Always count on the crew at ME to bring it. Check out their parlay slip from BetUS. I’d swap out Diaz in favor of Penn, but it largely looks like a somewhat respectable play. I am still baffled at how high the odds are in favor of Hatsu Hioki (-340 to -400) given the history of Japanese fighters in the UFC. Don’t get me wrong, I respect him greatly as a fighter but recent history isn’t on his side here. The Tyson Griffin line is getting out of hand as well. He’s gone from -280 to well over -320 this week. While he is a nice parlay throw-in, by no means can you say it’s a lock that he’ll win. It has nothing to do with his skill set but everything to do with what we saw in San Diego when he lost to Takanori Gomi.

Low Kick: BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz open workout photos for UFC 137 heat-up

Scott Hirano delivers the goods here. Check it out and support his efforts.

The Fight Nerd: UFC 137 betting guide

I have absolutely no clue why the author says that Kongo is a -160 favorite against Matt Mitrione. He’s not. Matt has been the slight favorite throughout. If Kongo fights smart and doesn’t do anything stupid like he did against Pat Barry, I definitely think he has the talent to win here.

As I’m reading through the rest of the odds on that guide, I have no clue where the author got his odds. They are all off the mark.

MMA Convert: Ben Askren vs. Jay Hieron — get ready for the man blanket!

While everyone is focused on Penn & Diaz on PPV, Ben Askren will get to show off the new tricks he’s learned since training with Duke Roufus in Milwaukee. He’s going to be a big cornerstone for Bellator when they head to Spike TV. Wonder if he’ll keep yapping about how his goal is the UFC now that Bellator’s going to have some cash to throw around?

Topics: Bellator, Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 10 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Dana White: Viacom buying out Bellator means UFC is a “Mom & Pop” MMA group

By Zach Arnold | October 28, 2011


Click on my incredulous face to see my sunny disposition during this MMAFighting.com interview with Ariel Helwani

So, after Nick Diaz says he regrets signing with the UFC and wishes he had gone boxing instead… and was busy blaming the UFC for why his fight with GSP got canceled… Dana White went into clean-up mode.

DANA WHITE: “He’s a man, he can handle himself and he’s been, I mean, as professional as you could be this week. The things that I’ve been hearing from my staff… he missed his flight the day that he was supposed to come here, then was on the next flight out of L.A. or wherever he flew out of and since he’s been here he’s been early to everything, he’s been… he’s been a pleasure to work with.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “Did you give him any kind of ultimatum that if he didn’t play by the rules that it’s three strikes and you’re out, sort of speak?”

DANA WHITE: “The last time Nick and I talked about the situation was… I was in L.A. a long time ago, it was right when I was making the BJ Penn fight and I have not talked to him since. So, we had that initial discussion about taking the BJ, you know, taking the BJ fight and then… why he didn’t show up for the press conference and all that stuff and that’s it. Since then, it’s been a homerun.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “It seems like both BJ & Nick were both interested making this a five rounder. Was that just talk or were they both trying to, sort of, you know, play each other’s hands and say, you know, I’ll up the ante if you up the ante, that kind of thing?”

DANA WHITE: “Yeah, well, what you guys hear and what goes on behind the scenes are two different things, you know? Listen, if both of those guys came to me and said ‘I want this to be a five rounder,’ I’ll make it a five rounder. What different does it make it to me?”

ARIEL HELWANI: “But they didn’t?”

DANA WHITE: “You have to do really seriously think about it and realize… you train for a three round fight a certain way, you train for a five round fight a different way. So… it’s kind of unfair to spring five rounders on people.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “What’s at stake for Nick in this fight? If he does win, is he still the #1 contender, the guy who will face the winner of Condit & GSP?”

DANA WHITE: “Yes.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “What about BJ?”

DANA WHITE: “I don’t know. We got to figure that out. We’ll see what happens.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “And how has it been with BJ? He had that issue with the Countdown. He said he asked for a little more money to make it a five rounder. I mean, how are things between you and BJ? It’s been an interesting road throughout his career.”

DANA WHITE: “I was just going to say, I thought you were going to say throughout this fight. It’s been an interesting road, you know, for 10 years with BJ. You know… it is what it is, you know… I, uh… We’ve uh, you know, we’re still here, we’re still working together and… whatever.”

ARIEL HELWANI: “Do you like him better at 155 or 170?”

DANA WHITE: “I think BJ Penn is a beast at either, man. I mean, that’s what I love about this fight on Saturday. You know how these two are when they walk out the Octagon, you know? They’re going to both be fired when they get in there, staring across at each other, and when that fight starts both guys are going to go after it and go for the finish.”

Dana White talks turkey on business, says Viacom buying out Bellator proves there’s no monopoly

Continue reading this article here…

Topics: Bellator, Media, MMA, StrikeForce, UFC, Zach Arnold | 10 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Bjorn Rebney: Viacom buying Bellator is a major statement about MMA’s future

By Zach Arnold | October 28, 2011

USA Today broke the story earlier in the week about Viacom (Spike) buying out Bellator and the promotion making its Spike debut in 2013. Hours after that announcement, Bjorn Rebney talked with Mauro Ranallo about how the deal came about and what it means for the landscape of the sport.

“It speaks volume to the strength of what I believe is the greatest sport on the face of the Earth. And, you know, we’re going to be transitioning to Spike in 2013. In the interim, we’ll be building out the brand and increasing and improving every element of what we do on MTV2 and EPIX & Spike.com. It just gives us an incredible opportunity to work with really smart people who understand our sport backward and forward to build this out and to continue to build traction around our tournament format, our objectivity and some of the greatest fighters on the face of the Earth. So, it gives us every tool to build this out for many, many, many years to come.”

One of the initial critiques of this news breaking is that it will Dana White & UFC time to conjure up a Vince McMahon-style hardball strategy to destroy the competition. Zuffa is ruthlessly aggressive and celebrates the fact that they are as efficient as we see them to be in the business. Mr. Rebney believes that the year off of Spike will give the promotion the proper time to make the right changes to be ready for the bigger television stage.

“From a planning perspective, planning in television happens six, nine months in advance. So, with this getting finalized and with us announcing it now, all the planning starts now for what we launch in 2013 or conceptually sooner. But at the very latest in 2013… and all the bricks being laid right now in terms of everything we’ll do and where we’ll be and how it will be promoted and all the shoulder programming and all the Best Ofs and all the highlights and conceivable other programming vehicles. So, it’s all in place and it’s all getting constructed and built out right now. But it’s exciting. It’s very exciting.”

Dave Meltzer has an old adage about Vince McMahon which is that you may not consider him your enemy or your competition but he considers you to be his enemy and you can either be prepared to defend your turf or else get vanquished. Mr. Rebney gave the smart and appropriate here in response to this scenario, even if it’s not totally a realistic one.

“I think the strongest place to kind of focus every piece of your energy and every piece of your team’s energy is doing what you can do with your brand in building out the fighters, finding the best talent, creating the best feature pieces and stories behind those fighters, improving every element of production for the TV audience, improving every element for the live in-house audience. I respect what the UFC does, I respect what they’ve accomplished. I’ve watched a lot of their shows and if you’re an MMA fan, and this is what’s always shocked me, and if you’re not a fan of the UFC then you’re not an MMA fan. The reality is that regardless of whether you started watching when Royce (Gracie) was fighting in a gi or whether you’ve been watching of late, they’ve got some great fighters and some great talent. We do things differently. We have an objective format. We have what I refer to as a true, real-sport format much like basketball & baseball & hockey & soccer & golf. Athletes complete and the best of the best makes it to the championship and if you win that fight, you’re crowned champion. They have a different format, neither of which are right or wrong, it’s just we’ve chosen one and they’ve chosen another. So, it is what it is. There’s two players in the (MMA) space. They do great shows, they got a great alliance with a great media conglomerate and we’ve got a great alliance with the people who kind of created this position in the sports entertainment arena. It will be what it will be relative to competition and the like.”

Dana White has gone on record about ‘awful MMA contracts’ in regards to boxing-style deals where there are ‘options.’ This is something people railed against when Roy Nelson had his squabbles with Roy Jones Jr. Will Bellator have some ‘poison pill’ clauses in their contracts to make it harder for UFC to raid their fighters? The company better be prepared for UFC to declare war on them and be ready for UFC to getting into some bidding wars.

“We’ve been kind of hyperfocused on developing our own talent. I mean, developing the Ben Askrens and the Joe Warrens and the Eddie Alvarezs and the Hector Lombards and the Pitbull Brothers and all these different fighters who have been kind of homegrown Bellator talent. So, I don’t know, I don’t know. I mean, the space has gotten much smaller. There’re very few of us in the (MMA) space at this point. There’s UFC and there’s Bellator, so I don’t know if that will mean that bidding wars will occur but, you know, we’re hyperfocused on recruiting the best talent out there from every conceivable corner of the globe. So, you know, we’ll see. We’ll see how it works. I think we’re going to continue our format of really trying to build out stars from within, develop them under the Bellator banner, and let them blossom and become stars.”

The one concept that Bjorn Rebney has been willing to fight tooth-and-nail to defend is the tournament concept. He truly believes that the tournament format is the best & fastest way to create new stars. I think there’s some doubt as to how long Spike TV will tolerate a tournament format as opposed to more subjective matchmaking focusing on stars rather than being a feeder system. Mr. Rebney says that you should expect to see the tournament format on all Bellator programming.

“It’s what we will see throughout the entirety of 2012 and it’s what will continue in 2013 on Spike. It just will have the enormous benefit on Spike of being able to complement it with highlight shows and Best Of’s and behind-the-scenes and unique takes on the athletes, real features, real focus put on the fighters who step in to the cage that make everything that I’ve been able to do possible and everything that Bellator’s been able to do possible. A big focus on them and their stories, who they are, where they’re from, and why they compete. And some other programming that will complement it as well. So, we’re going to have a real opportunity with Spike to expand the breadth of the Bellator brand and that’s what they did so brilliantly with the UFC and we’re very, very fortunate and blessed to have the opportunity to work with the people that were there from the beginning in ’05 when very few really understood what the sport was or what it was about. So, you know, that’s where we’ll find ourselves and that process begins today. I mean, we’re working on it literally as we speak.”

One of the difficult business issues Bellator has faced is being on MTV2, an audience mostly made of pre-teens and teenagers, who are sporadic in their viewer patterns of Saturday nights. One week, you have 130,000 viewers. The next week, it’s 275,000. There’s never any consistency. Saturday nights provide a lot of obstacles for Bellator in terms of television competition. So, will the network ditch Saturday nights once they head to Spike?

“I’m hardcore when it comes to objectivity,” exclaimed Mr. Rebney to Mr. Ranallo. “So, what I’m going to do is I’m going to review the numbers, I’m going to look at what household numbers look like. I’m going to look when people are around, I’m going to look at what the competition is vis-à-vis basketball, baseball, football, UFC, etc. We’re a year-round operation, we don’t have a season per se like football does in the Fall, etc. So, I’m going to look at all the numbers and then that’s going to ultimately, sitting down with our partners at Spike and at MTV networks, determine what night we’re on. I want to be on the night where we’ve got the opportunity to reach the largest number of fans and have the opportunity for them to see Bellator and some of the really exciting content, the really exciting events, and incredible Bellator moments that we’re putting on week after week after week. So, I don’t know. There are advantages to Saturday nights relative to audiences. … A lot of fans coming out to the fans but there are disadvantages to Saturday nights, obviously, as well because you’re going head-to-head with PPVs the UFC is doing. So, we’re going to weigh and balance. I don’t really have a favorite night because we haven’t sat down and looked at all the numbers but we will and then we’ll make a determination and those numbers will bare it out.”

As for what kind of programming Bellator will produce on Spike, it will not be 52 consecutive weeks of fighting. In other words, not a prototype of ESPN2’s Friday Nights.

“(We’ll have) two full seasons plus a Summer series and then it will be complement with the Best Of’s and the highlight shows and the behind-the-scenes and the features and conceivably even some form of reality programming that comes behind the brand. Doing a live event literally every week for 12 weeks is a very tough road to hoe and we’ll do it and we’re going to continue to do it and follow the format that we’ve followed. But there will be alterations and changes to that. We’re going to look to try to add more tournaments to each season so that we can get more title defenses in for our champions more frequently. We’re going to continue to adjust and tweak. And you just got keep tweaking it, you got to keep turning the dial a little bit here and a little bit there and making those adjustments to be able to create the best programming and the best events you possibly can.”

The news of Viacom owning Bellator brings up a lot of memories of when Turner owned WCW. It created quite a firestorm and led to some remarkable history being made. If Bellator is WCW and UFC is WWE, we could definitely see some big surprises developing over the coming years. Whether or not ‘corporate’ MMA is good or bad for the sport… time will tell. There’s no question, however, that Mr. Rebney found the appropriate golden parachute for Bellator by selling to Viacom. Without Viacom buying a stake in the company, it’s hard to see how long the company would have continued to survive. Now? Game on.

“(Viacom) purchased a majority stake in the company, over a 50% stake on the company and I am with the company as its chairman and as its CEO and I’ll be making the decisions at the company. But, you know, the wonderful part of this equation is that when I’m making those decisions, you know I always used to sit back years ago when I was conceptualizing this and putting the business plan together and I used to dream about a day where I would not be the smartest guy in the room. I used to dream about a day when I would be able to turn to people who knew far more about elements of this business than I did and say, ‘What do you think? What should we do with this? How would you construct this? What would you change with this?’ And now, you know, I’m a great spot. I’m in that position. I can turn to people who’ve really written the book ijn this space in many, many areas and say, ‘What do you think? Let’s chalkboard this thing. Let’s construct what we want to do. Let’s figure out what the best move is.’ And that’s just an ideal, ideal position for somebody like me to bei n because you’ve got access to people who just know it backward and forward.”

Look at how fast the landscape of the sport has changed in a year. Ari Emanuel brokers a huge 7-year, $700 million USD deal between Fox and UFC. Viacom, looking to replace UFC content on Spike TV, ends up buying a majority stake in Bellator. Whether or not you think Bellator can succeed on Spike TV, the truth is that Viacom is making a hell of a statement in regards to where they see MMA programming as an effective cable property play.

Just ask the man who cashed out big this week.

“It’s an endorsement by one of the largest, most powerful, most innovative entertainment companies on the face of the Earth. They reach 600 million people with their entertainment content. They are available in virtually every country on the face of the Earth. These guys… this team of people at Viacom are as smart as there is in the entertainment business and they have made a real investment in the future of Mixed Martial Arts. It happens to be Bellator and that’s great for me and for the people who work at Bellator and the fighters who fight here. But it’s a bigger statement. It’s a statement that a huge media giant that’s very powerful and has every conceivable piece of information at their disposal says that Mixed Martial Arts is here to stay, it’s going to grow exponentially, and we are behind it to make it grow exponentially and that’s a very, very loud statement for our sport. It’s a very loud statement for our sport. I’m thrilled that it’s our brand that they’ve committed to but it’s a big statement for the sport of Mixed Martial Arts. it’s a good day for MMA and at the same time a good day for Bellator.”

Topics: Bellator, Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 9 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

ONE FC press release on their expanding Asian MMA promotional network

By Zach Arnold | October 26, 2011

It’s not on the level of Viacom buying a majority stake in Bellator, but it’s good news nonetheless.

ONE Fighting Championship™ announces largest MMA network in Asian history

26 October, 2011 – Singapore: ONE Fighting Championship™ has signed mutually exclusive partnerships with most of the major Asian MMA promotions and MMA gyms in Asia as a part of its ONE Asia strategy to unify all the key players in the sport of MMA in Asia. The ONE Asia Partnership Network is the largest of its kind in MMA history in Asia.

ONE Fighting Championship™ has formed exclusive partnerships with the following organizations:

-URCC (Philippines)
-Cage Fighting Championship (Australia)
-ROAD Fighting Championship (Korea)
-DARE Fightsports (Thailand)
-Team Lakay Wushu (Philippines)
-Tiger Muay Thai and MMA (Thailand)
-Tigers Gym (India)
-Evolve Mixed Martial Arts (Singapore)
-Legacy Gym (Thailand)
-Tough MMA (Taiwan)
-Synergy Jiu-Jitsu (Indonesia)
-Juggernaut FC (Singapore)
-Fightworks Asia (Singapore)
-PAK MMA (Pakistan)
-Team Force (Korea)
-MuayFit (Malaysia)
-Leverage MMA (Malaysia)

ONE Fighting Championship™ currently remains in confidential discussions with many of the other top Asian MMA promotions and MMA gyms across Asia. Additionally, ONE FC has added another 17 of Asia’s top MMA fighters to its roster. Further announcements will be made in the near future.

Victor Cui, CEO/Owner of ONE Fighting Championship, said, ”Our goal is to unify Asian MMA and to build the sport that we all love dearly. With today’s announcement, many of the top MMA organizations and gyms in Asia have joined hands. Given our current discussions with various parties, we will be announcing another 23 additional MMA organizations and gyms to the ONE FC Network in the coming days and weeks. These strong partnerships will help to accelerate the development of Asian fighters and the sport of MMA in the region. Asian fighters need platforms to gain invaluable experience and to showcase their skills to the world. If you are a ONE FC fighter, you will automatically be able to compete in the biggest MMA events across Asia within the ONE FC Network. If you are a sponsor, you will be able to leverage and target your sponsorship dollars across multiple platforms. If you are a fan, you will enjoy many more high quality MMA shows around Asia. Ultimately, as it continues to grow, the ONE FC Network will multiply in benefits for all parties involved.”

Additionally, ONE Fighting Championship is pleased to announce the dates and countries of its next 3 events:

ONE FC 2: February 11, 2012 in Indonesia
ONE FC 3: March 31, 2012 in Singapore
ONE FC 4: April 27, 2012 in Malaysia

About ONE Fighting Championship™

Headquartered in Singapore, ONE Fighting Championship™ (http://www.onefc.com) is Asia’s largest mixed martial arts organization. ONE Fighting Championship hosts the most prestigious mixed martial arts event in Asia.

Topics: Media, MMA, Zach Arnold | 7 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Nick Diaz: It’s not my fault that UFC canceled my GSP fight, blame them

By Zach Arnold | October 26, 2011

When I think of ways to describe listening to Nick Diaz talk, the one effect I keep coming back to is the same effect that Tim Tebow has on the sports media, only Nick is the anti-Tebow. Both men, wittingly or unwittingly, polarize people to no end. Tebow more so based on his professional flaws, willingness to take heat, and strong will-power; Diaz more or less because of his rampant paranoia and constant need to blame others for his personal & professional problems. Not enough media ass-kissing? It’s your fault because you didn’t search him out even if he’s not comfortable in the media spotlight. His logic, at least what he verbally states, is beyond comprehension.

Take, for example, how much money Diaz lost by not fighting GSP when the fight was originally scheduled. Dave Meltzer estimated that Nick lost a $1 million USD pay day out of it. With St. Pierre injured, the fight wouldn’t have ended up taking place, but the table was set for Nick to make some big cash.

So, how does Nick summarize the events that led up to him losing out on the big pay day (on paper)?

“There’s always extra pressure on me, you know, I don’t get a lot of support. Not fan support but like I don’t get a lot of sponsorship support. … I don’t have a lot of people helping me out in that department.”

He goes on to complain about not getting media attention and yet needles UFC fighters for being on Twitter and all “being on the same team” as far as feuds are concerned. Furthermore, Nick says he did nothing wrong in regards to Zuffa canceling his bout against GSP and that the situation is their fault entirely.

“They went back on that. People want to blame me for spoiling that deal but they spoiled that deal for the fans, it wasn’t that I spoiled that deal. If you tell me what to do, I’ll do it. Nobody’s telling me, ‘hey, show up for this press conference or you’re not fighting.’ It’s like, yeah right, like I’m not going to show up and people are going to know that I don’t want to fight. I do want to fight and it’s why I’ve been fighting my whole life, training and representing my team. I’m not trying to let my whole team down and the rest of the fans for that matter, too.”

If you watch the interview, notice the tone of Nick’s comments about St. Pierre as a point-fighter. It’s a mixture of disdain and disgust without raising or changing his voice. He really dislikes watching GSP fight.

Look at the bright side — if Nick loses to Penn on Saturday night, Zuffa will probably keep him around so he doesn’t jump ship to Bellator which just found a golden ownership parachute with Viacom.

So, Cesar, will this fight be a stand-up or ground battle?

CESAR GRACIE: “You know what? I’d like to see it standing, I mean, if I had to pick. I think Nick is very durable and I think he would be able to his reach eventually and start picking BJ off. But on the ground, let’s face it, Nick is a incredible BJJ practitioner. He’s been doing jiu-jitsu for a very long time, he’s an awesome black belt as is BJ. So, I’m interested to see this fight. I think we’re going to see a lot of stand-up and we’re going to see a lot of ground work.”

KENNY RICE: “Freddie Roach has said that BJ Penn is the best striker out there in MMA and BJ Penn has said that Nick Diaz is the best boxer in MMA. That has all the ingredients that this is going to stand-up, you think?”

CESAR GRACIE: “You know… it does but, you know, BJ has also made a couple of statements after the Fitch fight, he said he was going to go back to his roots of taking people down and trying to finish them with his jiu-jitsu, you know, so he said that also and… who knows what’s in BJ’s mind right now? I would love to see a stand-up war like I’ve said but we’re going to see both of them, ground and standing.

“I think we’re going to see a great ground game and we’re going to go back to one of those fights where there isn’t any stalling and both guys are really going for it, at least that’s the plan for right now. I’m friends with BJ and he started off at my school back in the day when me and Ralph had an academy together, so I’ve known him for a very long time. The kid’s a phenom and a prodigy and I’ve been a fan of his since then and Nick is pretty much the same way, so it will be great, it will.”

KENNY RICE: “Cesar, we talked about this recently when I had the pleasure of coming up to your gym… Nick is one of the most misunderstood guys out there in MMA and he misses the two press conferences, he loses his chance at a shot at GSP back then. Have you talked about that much with him? Is that something that rolls off his back and he’s just ready to fight this fight or does it stay in the back of his mind a little bit?”

CESAR GRACIE: “You know what? I think it does stay in the back of his mind a little bit, you know. Nick is a hard guy to figure out.. .but it really did effect him and I think it effected me a lot, you know, definitely, you know, you bring a guy up with that kind of potential to a title fight and when it doesn’t happen because of something so stupid and silly, it’s going to effect our team obviously. But, you know, Nick’s got another opportunity to make up for it now and let’s face it, I mean, if they would have had that fight, let’s say GSP would have gotten hurt, Nick wouldn’t have a fight right now. So, sometimes things work out the way they were supposed to.”

KENNY RICE: “Obviously, a lot of respect for Nick. I mean, there’s times where he may have been thrown off the card completely but he gets a shot at Penn, so obviously that shows there is respect for the ability that Nick has even though I believe I’m using your words, again, it was a little stupid what he did missing those press conferences.”

CESAR GRACIE: “Yeah, I agree. Nick has a tremendous amount of respect for BJ. He sees him as a true fighter and Nick respects those kind of people. Now, that might work against us a little bit because, as you know, Nick really likes to hate his opponents as everybody knows. And here’s BJ, a guy he does not hate but actually likes. But, you know, I think Nick is a true professional when it comes to fight, I mean he’s going to put that aside and for the time we get to the 15 minutes we’re going to see them in the cage, I think we’re going to see mortal enemies.”

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 14 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Dave Meltzer: Piracy is a major factor in why UFC PPV buy rates are declining

By Zach Arnold | October 25, 2011

Jack Encarnacao had a very productive interview with Dave Meltzer on Sunday night and it’s an interview that I think needs some highlighting.

With the estimated PPV buy rate numbers for UFC 136 (Houston) coming in at around 250,000 PPV buys, there is concern about the short-term and long-term future of UFC’s PPV business model. It’s only going to get tougher with increased sports & entertainment events happening on Saturday nights.

Injuries & too many shows are the main reasons why UFC PPV buys are down this year. Those underlying causes are the reason for a reported spike in piracy of UFC PPV events being streamed online. Dave elaborated on this conundrum for the UFC during his interview with Jack.

“I don’t think that there’s one specific reason. I think that there’s probably about 10 different reasons. But the key ones… I think the increase in piracy is one of them. I think too many shows and the effects of… this last one, it’s two weeks between shows. That’s always going to be tough unless you got something incredible. Running a PPV two weeks after your last PPV, I mean we’ve seen it with pro-wrestling… it’s always been, you know, a major effect on it, that’s just too quick. And, you know, just… just so many shows, it’s hard to get people ‘up’ for so many shows. I think those are all factors and also, you know, the different champions as compared to last year.

“Last year, your heavyweight champion was Lesnar, a phenomenal draw. This year we haven’t even had a championship fight and won’t have one on PPV all year. Light Heavyweight champion was one that ‘s realistically probably a wash when you go from Machida to Shogun to Jon Jones. Jon Jones may end up being stronger but isn’t there yet. Anderson’s the same. Georges is the same. And then you’ve got BJ Penn for Frankie Edgar, which is a huge drop. So, you know, all those things play a part in it. And then you’ve got the introduction of the Featherweights and the Bantamweights championships are not over to the point where people are going to run and buy PPVs for them at the kind of level that they did for championship matches a year ago. So, there’s a lot of reasons.

“I have too many friends who started (streaming) in recent months. It’s picked up steam in recent months. How much? It’s impossible to say. I did a poll on my site and last year it was kind of like a 1:1 ratio and now it’s a 1:2 ratio in the sense of buying versus streaming. Now, it’s double the streaming versus the buying, that’s pretty significant.

“I think it’s also affecting boxing, too, because the one thing I’ve noticed… you notice they never did announce that Mayweather/Ortiz buy rate and the reason is obviously because I think they were embarrassed of it and, you know, Mayweather’s drawing… Mayweather hasn’t had a bad PPV number since he had the fight with Oscar De La Hoya four years ago and he doesn’t fight so often that it’s overexposure, either.”

The obvious question, given the upcoming big fight on Fox in a couple of weeks, is whether or not UFC can take their Ari Emanuel-brokered 7-year, $700 million USD television deal and gain a substantial business boost from it by transitioning from a PPV-based business model to a cable/network TV model?

“Well, I’m sure you can try to get as much money from licensing as you can. But the problem with the TV product is that you’re at a fixed number for seven more years, starting next year. So, 2012 to 2018, so they really contractually are going to be able to jack up that PPV price until 2019 unless they can renegotiate a deal and who knows if you can do that. So, that’s going to be difficult at best to make up all that lost money through televisions. Yeah, there are other ways you can do it, but that’s a lot of money to make up. It’s a huge issue and I don’t really know the answer to it and it’s one that’s going to effect everyone in the PPV industry as well as the NFL, the NHL, and all those that have the Ticket events, like Sunday Ticket and things like that. The NFL is going to Congress about this very issue so that tells me this season that they’ve felt a hit, too.”

UFC’s in a pickle right now with their PPV business. Because they’ve gone from a few shows a year to having shows every three weeks (or so), Pandora’s box has been opened. You can’t go back from 15 shows to 6 shows a year on PPV and draw the same amount of cash. We’ve seen this with the pro-wrestling promotional model. The pickle is that you can’t go back to fewer events but if you keep up the breakneck pace of PPV events, you’ll destroy the amount of people that make up your hardcore PPV customer base.

“If we talk about residual effect over the course of years and years, yeah but… the reality is that it’s not going to make a difference because that’s what they’re going to do. Until they feel that it’s hurting them, they’re not going to cut back and at that point, you know, again, will damage be done? I mean, if you cut back from 13 shows this next year on PPV, if you cut back to 6 they’re going to make a lot less money than they would with 13. Even the last show, they’re still making a profit on these shows.

“Now, at some point, when you erode the base, at what point does that come to play? I’ve mean, we’ve seen the example of pro-wrestling where 2001 in North America, 300,000 buys would be a bad show. That was kind of like the base. And now the base is, what, 71,000, 75,000, in that range, 10 years later. You don’t want that to happen because right now the UFC’s base is below 300,000 and you don’t want the day to come from 10 years now where it’s 70,000 in North America. Then, the damage is done.

“UFC could get better, it depends on the stars, it depends on so many things out of everyone’s control. But, yeah, I think that, you know, I think 8-to-12 is in my gut is the optimum number. I think once a month people will handle. I think it’s when you get to those two PPVs a month or two weeks between shows, that’s when people start going, ‘Oh my God, $110 on this month’s cable bill as opposed to $55,’ that’s a big difference I think in people’s eyes.

“I certainly wouldn’t add shows, that’s for sure. But I don’t think they are thinking as far as adding PPV shows, either. Dana’s mentality, to me, was always once a month is as much as you want to do but I think that this year they ended up with 15… Believe me, three weeks (for a gap) is better than two. I think four weeks os optimum in building it. I’ve seen them get away with three, but two I think… I think two is a big factor in this last buy rate (for UFC 136).”

The ‘hope springs eternal’ situation is that the Fox TV platforms will help Zuffa create new stars more readily and easily. Dave thinks the results will end up being mixed.

“That’s what you hope for but it’s not a guarantee. That’s what they said about the CBS thing and remember Robbie Lawler & Scott Smith on the first CBS show. They had a hell of a fight. But when they had the rematch, nobody wanted to see it. And it’s a rematch off a network fight that millions and millions of people, like six million people, five million people, whatever the number was, saw that fight and you’re doing a rematch and people didn’t really care. So, it’s… you got to still have something.

“But, you’re right, in theory you get these guys… that’s what you want with Cain (Velasquez). You want Cain or dos Santos, whoever wins this thing, in front of this big crowd and it will revitalize the Heavyweight division because so many people saw it and, you know, hopefully that works. I mean, hopefully, the live fights on FX which is a higher-rated network than Spike drives The Ultimate Fighting ratings higher and with more eyeballs, the winner of the Ultimate Fighter first season on FX can become a Michael Bisping or a (Forrest) Griffin or somebody like that who actually walks right in as a star as opposed to Tony Ferguson…”

In pro-wrestling, there’s always been a great debate about whether the man makes the title credible or if the title makes the man credible. From last year to this year, the value of UFC title fights hasn’t meant as much at the PPV box office.

“Well, I think that a title fight means more than a standard main event as a general rule but as far as the value of the titles diminishing, I don’t think you can argue that because I just remember when Shogun Rua and (Lyoto) Machida… I had thought that two Brazilians, this is going to be a tough sell, and they did 450,000 buys which is even then a good number. So, at that point, it was like, okay, you have a championship match in the UFC, I mean every championship match was doing real well.

“Well, this year, Edgar and Maynard on January 1st did not do particularly well and on this last one you had two title matches on the same show and did even worse. So, yes, the value of a UFC championship match has dropped. But again I think knew going in Featherweight and Bantamweight it was going to be like that anyways. But Lightweights… Edgar’s a struggle right now. Jon Jones is still doing fine but, ummm… I don’t know, I think people expected him to do better because he’s got a lot going for him including the hype that he might be the new all-time great and I don’t know if people are skeptical or they don’t believe the challengers.”

Give me your thoughts on what kind of impact you think UFC’s television deal with Fox will have on creating new challengers and what some of the hurdles of the new business deal will be (in your estimation).

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 34 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

MMA Link Club: The growing Nick Diaz betting bandwagon

By Zach Arnold | October 21, 2011

Top story

Our friend Shu Hirata was on Mauro Ranallo’s radio show this past Tuesday to talk about what’s happening with the fight scene in Japan. I’ll fill you in on a few of the interview notes and then give you my thoughts on the matter.

Here’s the problem on the item about Dentsu being involved in the UFC Japan show… Dentsu works with the major television networks to bring sponsors to the table. They would not put out millions of dollars in cash unless they were going to get the show on broadcast television in Japan. Otherwise, what would the point be of them running a live event that’s a no-TV show? Doesn’t add up. A live WOWOW cable broadcast is not worth it for Dentsu in terms of making serious money, so that avenue doesn’t make much sense for a powerful ad agency. This is the same ad agency that worked with the big fight promotions a decade ago and has experience in this field.

So, if Dentsu is the money mark for this event, there’s two questions that need to be raised here: a) are they going to play the role that Total Sports Asia played for WWE in 2003 when they brought their show to Yokohama Arena? b) What will Dentsu want booked versus what the UFC office accepts in terms of matchmaking? Shu alluded to Dentsu wanting a PRIDE-flavored nostalgia show. Even if Dana White woke up on the right side of the bed and gave Dentsu what they wanted, that show is not going to draw big numbers on broadcast television in Japan. There is no strong Japanese ace. The foreigners who could work the card aren’t household names at all in Japan (outside of Mirko and maybe Nogueira).

The more details that surface about the UFC Japan show, the curiouser it sounds.

Speculative, initial guess: Dentsu may end pitching a time buy or barter deal with TV Tokyo, the weakest of the over-the-air broadcast stations.

You can’t go wrong watching a program that features Bas Rutten and our friend Nick Kalikas. Enjoy.

By the way, the discussion of a battle between DirecTV & Fox networks has everyone up in arms. Realistically, I don’t think it’s that big of a story… yet. If there is no deal in place and you are a DirecTV subscribe, all you have to do is make a simple antenna to watch the OTA (over-the-air) channels. If push comes to shove, I’ll be happy to give simple instructions on how to make your own antenna.

Member sites of the MMA Link Club

This week’s MMA Link Club featured stories

Five Ounces of Pain: A look back at Wednesday’s Ultimate Fighter program

Josh decides to steal Dustin’s hat and jack his swagger back. Dustin thinks Akira did it, so now he’s ready to kill him. YES! kill him. Dustin takes all of Akira’s stuff in the kitchen and puts it in a trash bag. Then, at the gym, he throws Akira’s equipement all over the locker room. Akira wants a bareknuckle fight in the garden. Doesn’t he know that gets him kicked off the show?

*At the fight announcement, Akira and Dustin keep trash talking. Both guys want the other to perform sexual favors on them. No, seriously. Akira and Dustin is announced. They go nose to nose. Dustin tries a takedown, Akira stuffs it, and then throws down Dustin. Then Bisping and Miller exchange words. The guy who controls the bleep button earned his money just based on this segment.

Because nothing says promoting the intelligence of MMA fighters (in the spirit of Fox Sports boss David Hill) by having more and more slurs broadcast on television.

MMA Fighting: The Nick Diaz Phenomenon

“I think there’s nothing wrong with the media focusing on that stuff,” he said. “It’s something to talk about. It’s a story. I don’t want to say it’s good for the sport, the guy not showing up for the press conference, but it is another character in the sport, you know?”

That Penn ended his answer with a question seemed perfectly fitting, too. Sometimes Diaz leaves you with an uneasy feeling, like you’re not sure if you’re in the midst of watching someone unravel, or you’re just watching someone who’s conflicted.

He supplanted Fedor as the man the hardcores online root for unconditionally. The proof is in the pudding as far as people putting their money on the line at the sportsbooks to bet on him beating BJ Penn, which I find to be remarkable.

NBC Sports: Frank Mir answers the call to help out Roy Nelson with his training camp to prepare for Mirko Cro Cop

“My hair has grown out a little longer. My beard is a little longer. So definitely, we’re going to see a different Roy Nelson,” he said.

But what about your weight, Roy?

“I just want to basically wow people with my beard, so definitely going for that.”

You’re not answering the question.

“As long as I’m 266, I’m good to go,” he added.

This is why, despite the fact that he’s nearly a 3-to-1 favorite at the ‘books, that it makes me nervous to be heavy in his favor to beat Mirko. (Pardon my initially unwitting pun.)

Cage Potato: UFC 137 gambling addiction enabler

Stay the Hell Away From: George Roop. The man has never been one for consistency, and though he has scored brilliant knockouts over Chan Sung Jung and Josh Grispi, he was also blown out of the water by Mark Hominick, and has dropped decisions to Eddie Wineland and Shane Nelson. Shane who you ask? Exactly. Hatsu Hioki takes this with ease.

Hioki is over a 3-to-1 favorite to win. I think that’s a bit high given the history of people overrating Japanese fighters coming to the UFC, even if Hioki’s style is better-suited for the cage.

MMA Mania: Start remembering the name Zach “Fun Size” Makovsky during his Halloween holiday season

I think the guys who have the most success are the ones that constantly put everything together. That’s the kind of fighter I want to be. I don’t want to be a guy who strikes for a while and then randomly goes for a takedown. I want to use everything together, my striking, my takedowns and constantly having options available. I think that’s where you’ll have the most success.

Here’s a video interview of Zach after his latest win in Bellator:

5th Round: Joe Lauzon challenges Anthony Pettis to a February fight

Even with Ben Askren training Anthony, I think it’s a fairly competitive fight…

Bleacher Report (Gregory Chase): Is there inconsistency in the way UFC releases fighters?

While nationality may or may not play a significant role, there does seem to be this luminous ambiguity of what constitutes “cutting” criteria. Sometimes it seems based on how they lose, sometimes on what they have done for the sport. Sometimes it seems guys get cut solely because they lost X fights in a row. But if you look at Tito Ortiz, it contradicts some of them.

The true nature of why these guys are getting released when they are is unknown, but it is apparent there is a lack of system. This is where fans find frustration and where the organization starts to look more like a business than a sport.

Middle Easy: A Zeus-ish interview with Chuck Zito

He thinks that if Randy Couture vs. Fedor had been booked that Randy would have won. In hindsight, is he right?

Low Kick: Fabricio Werdum in talks with the UFC, could be there this December

The Fight Nerd: Victor Conte talks steroids in MMA & boxing

Interesting that no one is even asking about drug testing after Chael Sonnen’s fight in Texas…

MMA Convert: The injury bug continues to savage promotions & big fights

MMA Payout: Analyzing the value of Pro Elite’s new TV deal with HDNet

HDNet is struggling with clearance on many big platforms. Look what’s happened to them in Canada. That’s why MFC’s exposure on TSN is important.

Topics: Media, MMA, StrikeForce, UFC, Zach Arnold | 38 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

Opinion: Dana White is not the right man to lead the UFC during their era on Fox

By Zach Arnold | October 19, 2011

From time to time, we hear from opinion leaders who want to speak out about the current state of affairs in the sport but are afraid to reveal their name due to fear of repercussions. For this article, that is the case. We will not reveal the author’s identity but will publish this piece which addresses a ‘big picture’ subject.

Dana White has been the catalyst for the UFC’s growth from 2005 to present day. He is the most influential man in the sport and transformed UFC into an MMA empire. He avoided the kinds of pitfalls that doomed promotions like the WFA, the IFL, Affliction, PRIDE, DREAM, and Strikeforce. Thanks to Zuffa’s connections with Ari Emanuel, the promotion was able to bank a seven year, $700 million USD contract with Fox Sports to air UFC content on various Fox-related platforms.

Dana White was the right man at the right time to get the UFC to this business point. However, he is not the right man moving forward.

Out of touch with his fan base

Dana White no longer understands the fan base he is supposed to be catering to. This is a two part issue. The first is the number of PPV’s being run by the UFC. The second is the promoting of the smaller weight classes.

PPV quantity

Before we can get into the meat of this issue, let’s look at the data from 2010/2011. Outlined below are PPV buy rates for months where two PPV’s are promoted:

Running two PPV’s in a month in 2010 worked out well. In 2011, however, the concept has been an unmitigated failure. Only one PPV event in 2011 during multi-PPV months has drawn more than 400,000 buys. The reason is simple — the American economy is still in the toilet and unemployment rates are at miserable levels. Asking fans to pay $50-55 a month on MMA is reasonable. Asking those same fans to spend $100 or more a month is absurd and outrageous.

Promoting smaller weight classes

No matter how tough Frankie Edgar is, he is not Cain Velasquez. No matter how explosive Jose Aldo is, he is not Jon Jones. And no matter how technical Dominick Cruz is, he is not Anderson Silva. The fans know this. Dana White has yet to realize it. UFC fans care the most about Heavyweight, Light Heavyweight, Middleweight, and Welterweight. And yet, they are being sold Lightweight, Featherweight, & Bantamweight title fights like they are on the same perch as fights featuring Velasquez, Jones, Silva, or GSP.

Dana White seems unaware of what UFC fans not only want to see, but are willing to pay to see. Dana White could put on a FOUR CHAMPIONSHIP FIGHT PPV featuring: Frankie Edgar vs. Gilbert Melendez, Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes, Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber, & Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrius Johnson… and that four Championship PPV wouldn’t sell as much as a PPV featuring only Lesnar, Velasquez, or GSP.

These lower weight classes should be adding depth to PPV’s, not headlining them. They should be featured on free TV like Cruz vs. Johnson was on Versus, not placed in a double-billing like UFC 136.

A lack of understanding about his company’s roster issues

Dana White no longer understands his stable of fighters. Take a look at what a Fight Opinion site commenter recently stated about the amount of canceled/postponed fights due to injuries or drug testing failures.

That list does not include champions or main event fighters who were out for an extended period of time due to injury such as Cain Velasquez. The data is clear. Injuries to top level fighters happen at a high rate. The trend has lasted for a long enough period of time that we can now assume this to be the norm. This is an unavoidable issue within the UFC landscape. The problem is that Dana White has not adapted his matchmaking philosophy to alleviate the problems.

Look at UFC 135 as an example. The event featured Jon Jones vs. Quinton Jackson and Diego Sanchez vs. Matt Hughes. Now, out of those 4 fighters, there is a good chance that one of them will be injured. The UFC dodged a bullet and Diego Sanchez was the one who was injured. What would have happened if Jon Jones or Quinton Jackson were injured? The card instantly would have fallen apart. There is no leeway for error in Joe Silva’s matchmaking.

Much of this problem can be alleviated by running less PPV’s, therefore freeing up more fighters. However, Zuffa is going the same route as WWE by planning a calendar slate of 34 events in 2012.

Let’s now look at UFC 137. GSP is injured and now we are left with a contractually-scheduled three round Penn vs. Diaz fight. Once again, Dana White did not plan ahead. He gave no leeway for the main event being cancelled. Penn vs. Diaz should have been booked as a five round fight when the bout was signed. It’s a high-enough quality fight to warrant it and when the card was put together, it should have been viewed as a potential replacement for the main event just in case somebody got injured.

UFC must plan ahead and assume the worst-case scenario for fighter injuries in future matchmaking. This is the fairest methodology of matchmaking & preparation to serve UFC ticket holders who are expected to shell out big cash to go to shows expecting a certain level of competition.

Falling out of touch with the boys

“Do you want to be a fucking fighter?” – Dana White (The Ultimate Fighter: Season 1 – 2005)

Remember the context of those words? He was speaking to fighters who were trying to get into the UFC. They were relative rookies in the sport. Those words worked like magic back in 2005 as the UFC faced an uncertain future. It’s that same raw, uncensored attitude that helped Dana White build the UFC into what it is today.

Fast forward to today, six years later. The UFC is filled with a veteran roster. Over 50 UFC fighters have over 10 fights or more. These are proven commodities of the sport. Many of them are champions, former champions, or former title challengers. And yet, Dana White still speaks in this same 2005ish derogatory manner towards these fighters. He has not adapted to the changes of his own company. It’s like a father who speaks to his 25 year old son like he is still in elementary school, either unwilling or incapable of accepting that the person has evolved.

A great example of this is the recent comments by Rich Franklin. By all accounts, Rich Franklin is the model UFC Fighter.

After Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was injured for his UFC 133 bout, Franklin was then offered to fight Alexander Gustafsson. Franklin did not agree with the matchmaking, but agreed to fight him. In a future interview, Dana White threw Franklin under the bus and said Franklin turned down the fight.

Rich’s response?

“(I) was a bit disappointed… I’ll be honest with you, I was a bit disappointed listening to that, because the tone of the interview between you and Dana almost sounded like that. I thought, first of all, I’ve never ducked any other opponent in my life. For that kind of stuff to come out and to question, I guess, my motives or my character or whatever, it was very upsetting to me.

“That feeling of family, it’s dissipated a little bit. It’s not the same as it used to be when I first starting fighting for the UFC, and I basically told Lorenzo that. I said, ‘Hey, I feel like sometimes you guys don’t really have my back,’ and he told me that they’d been really busy with the FOX deal and all that kind of stuff.”

Dana White has thrown so many fighters under the bus in interviews that it has become a chronic problem. It has gone from a promoter being “honest” to a man who can’t help but trash anything he discusses. If the Rich Franklins of the world aren’t even safe from this behavior, then it is safe to assume that no UFC fighter is.

You know who else views their ’employees’ (independent contractors) like children? Vince McMahon.

Dana White was without question the man for the job for the Spike TV era. However, when you piss off an entire roster of fighters and treat them like kids, you start to build up a lot of mistrust between the promotion and talent. Fear is always a good motivator in the fight game but having your words, as a promoter, being viewed as ‘white noise’ is not good. Dana is showing cracks in his armor and is starting to build momentum for the case that he is not the right man for UFC’s future during the Fox era.

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 87 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

With GSP vs. Carlos Condit postponed, a second look at BJ Penn/Nick Diaz

By Zach Arnold | October 18, 2011

Our friend David Castillo tackled the path in which Nick Diaz could beat BJ Penn at UFC 137. That fight now is the main event of the show because Georges St. Pierre postponed his fight with Carlos Condit due to a knee injury. St. Pierre is getting heat online for making his call given that UFC has a show in Toronto on December 10th and that’s a good landing spot for him. Another fight in Canada?

Anyhow, we present to you round two of the Penn/Diaz chronicles featuring two different perspectives on the upcoming fight. The odds at the sportsbooks are still a pick ’em for each guy.

Jed Meshew can be reached at [email protected] or @stanleykael on Twitter.

Nick Diaz fights BJ Penn at UFC 137 and, if he wins, Diaz will get to reclaim the title shot he lost just a few weeks ago; however, that is a huge if. BJ Penn is quite possibly the worst stylistic match-up imaginable for Diaz. Nick’s primary weapon is his high-volume boxing which forgoes many basic fundamentals in favor of constant attack. Previously he did this without setting his feet which resulted in his shots lacking power and made his style one of accrued damage rather than that of a knock out artist. However, in his last couple of fights Nick has begun sitting out on his punches more which gives him much more snap and allowed him to put a hurting on Paul Daley. But, though he has begun to find his power Diaz’s defensive boxing game remains underwhelming, relying heavily on his ability to absorb punishment rather sound defensive skills. Against Penn this is likely to be his biggest downfall as BJ has fantastic head-movement and thrives on slipping punches and countering with power shots. BJ has quite possibly the best pure boxing in the UFC so standing with him is always a gamble, one that Nick is likely to embrace.

The other major weapon in Nick’s arsenal is his sneaky submission guard game. Against BJ that is all but futile. Penn has probably the best top game in the UFC and his guard passing is second to none. Nick will have a hard time maintaining guard much less throwing up subs from his back thus Nick’s best chance on the ground is to try and force scrambles to get back to his feet where he has at least a fighting chance. Should Diaz somehow end up on top of Penn, BJ’s guard game is primarily defensive so Nick would have an opportunity to grind away on top providing he can avoid Penn’s sweep attempts.

Stylistically, Diaz’s biggest strengths are Penn’s biggest strengths except BJ does them better. That being said there is one area of the fight in which Diaz has a significant advantage and that is in Penn’s oft-maligned cardio. The MO on BJ has long been his poor conditioning, particularly at welterweight while Diaz has an incredible gas tank. The question then becomes how can Nick Diaz wear down BJ in only three rounds when he is not the type of takedown-grind-em-out style of fighter BJ has had problems with in the past. To me, the key for Diaz is a skill which he has recently been using more and more and which will prove his most potent offense come his fight with BJ Penn, the body shot. In his last few fights Diaz has made excellent use of hooks to the body which against Penn could prove highly effective at draining BJ’s gas tank and tiring him out. Body shots also play around Penn’s ability to slip punches with head movement so there is a real avenue for success here for Diaz. The only problem is that often Nick throws body shots as punctuations on his combinations and when fighters are covering up against him whereas BJ is more likely to maintain range and move away. With that in mind, Nick will have to get inside while avoiding BJ’s very solid work inside the clinch. If Nick can do that then he has a great opportunity to take the wind out of BJ early and as Penn fades his defensive boxing begins to slacken and he starts eating more punches. So, if Diaz can work the body early his jab-heavy attack can certainly find the mark in later rounds.

For Nick Diaz to win, he needs to do the following:

He has no chance of submitting BJ, so to win he needs a TKO or a decision. After the Fitch fight, BJ said it was time he returned to his grappling roots and if that is the case here then Nick is in a world of trouble. To win, Nick can’t let himself get taken down and play guard. BJ Penn is not Cyborg Santos and he will not be tapped. If Nick is content to be on his back he will lose a decision thus Nick needs to either keep the fight standing or find a way to put BJ on his back where BJ is often content remaining defensive. The problem here is that BJ’s flexibility and balance make taking him down extremely difficult and often a liability as he actively punishes takedown attempts with uppercuts. Nick has never been considered a great wrestler (offensive or defensively) so he expecting him to takedown BJ is foolish and wouldn’t be Nick’s style anyway. So that leaves Nick’s options of winning this fight relegated to standing up with BJ. I envision Nick winning the standup battle with BJ by establishing range using his length to keep Penn away and when the fight gets inside working the body. The real key for Nick is to keep active on the feet. His continuous work-rate would both keep BJ active defensively, tiring him out and score points with judges who often mistake “effective aggression” with motion (like in the first Penn-Edgar fight, or any Leonard Garcia fight ever). If Diaz can combine his punches-in-bunches style with lateral movement and some strong body work he can certainly take home a decision over Penn.

To be frank, this is a nightmare match-up for Nick Diaz. BJ Penn is one of the most preternaturally gifted fighters alive today and his particular skill set happens to coincide perfectly with the deficiencies in Diaz’s game. To beat BJ you have keep him guessing by mixing up punches, kicks and takedowns. Nick can’t wrestle with BJ and never throws kicks and for all his offensive dynamism remains a relatively predictable fighter. Nick’s game is predicated on a high volume offense which plays directly into BJ’s wheel house so for Nick to win he will either need to make some dramatic changes to his style or come in with a well crafted game-plan. If not it is highly likely that he will suffer fifteen minutes of counter rights, left hooks, and upper-cuts. But if Diaz can get inside and work the body while avoiding Penn’s sneakily good clinch game and highly underrated takedowns then he can really put the screws to BJ and put himself in a position to win a crack at UFC gold.

Continue reading this article here…

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 1 Comment » | Permalink | Trackback |

David Castillo: Why the smart money’s on Nick Diaz beating BJ Penn

By Zach Arnold | October 17, 2011

Since the odds opened up at the sportsbooks for this fight, I’ve noticed that there is a strong belief that Nick Diaz will beat BJ Penn in two weeks at UFC 137 in Las Vegas. I’ve yet to figure out a way, in my mind, in which Diaz beats Penn. There’s just too many variables in favor of Penn winning the fight and more paths for him to win outright than for Nick to win. However, a lot of money has been coming in on Nick to win the fight. The fight is now a virtual pick ’em at the ‘books. This astounds me.

So, I set out to find someone who could articulate in a written article the way in which Nick beats BJ for this fight. For the most part, the responses I got were from people who think BJ is going to win but would be willing to put aside their feelings to make the argument for Nick. I wanted to find some true believers in Nick Diaz. David Castillo was gracious enough to send me this article in order to lay out the case as to why Nick Diaz should be as strongly favored as BJ Penn for their UFC 137 fight.

David Castillo can be found on twitter at @DavidCastilloAC and Head Kick Legend, the unlikely home for the intersection between combat sports and culture.

While fans may have felt something was lost when Nick Diaz fumbled his chance at the title with his antisocial behavior in playing the role of Dr. Richard Kimble at Cesar Gracie’s home, we’ve also collectively gained with one of the most intriguing matchups in all of MMA. Both Nick and BJ Penn are incredibly gifted fighters, and they bring as much attitude inside the cage as they do outside of it. I’m not sure Penn will be licking Nick’s blood off his gloves when all is said and done, or if Nick will be spouting vulgarities at Penn mid-fight, but I can’t wait to find out.

So who wins? With the numbers even on this match, do the oddsmakers know what the experts don’t? Part of why many people give Nick a good chance to win is psychological. Nick is on a ten fight winning streak. Regardless of competition (much of which was respectable enough), Nick simply has the “hot hand”. He hasn’t lost since 2007. Results like that go a long way with fans. Conversely, Penn is 1-2-1 in his last four, having dropped two fights to Edgar, and nearly became 1-3 against Fitch, who clowned him in the 3rd round of their fight.

However, for Nick, there are still questions about his competition “respectable enough” or not. He’s facing the same narrative many talented fighters outside of the UFC have always faced: the inexperience against top tier competition. Right now Jake Shields is dealing with his defeat: but not against GSP, but to Jake Ellenburger, a fighter who simply wasn’t high on many top 10 lists before his victory over Shields. Is Nick Diaz just a big fish in a small goldfish bag like so many other non-Zuffa fighters? Compounding the issue is that Nick Diaz already fought in the UFC with a 6-4 record. He wasn’t a washout, as is sometimes assumed: in fact, he was on a 2 fight winning streak before signing with Gracie Fighting Championship to leave the UFC.

But the blueprint had been written in his four losses: you beat Nick by holding him down. Or were they? Fans tend to be have short term memories. In Nick’s four losses in the UFC, two were lost in the grappling department; to Karo and Diego (this was especially true in Diego’s case, who nearly secured an armbar in the 3rd round of their fight). And the other 2 were essentially lost on the feet: to Riggs, and then to Sherk (who had trouble getting Diaz down, and resorted to boxing for significant portions of the fight). Nick has shown steady signs of improvement over the years, and if you want proof, compare him to his fights with Mike Aina and his first fight with KJ Noons all the way to the Noons rematch. Under normal circumstances I’d say the jump up in competition would too much, but Nick has been there before. Moreover, as Nick himself is all too eager to remind everyone, his losses were in hotly contested bouts.

Tag to that the fact that no one has ever run away with an easy victory over Nick, and given his improvement over the years, I think it’s fair to say that the jump up in competition won’t be a factor. Plus he’s motivated. Nick is nothing if not dedicated to the sport (despite the temper tantrums). He may seem irresponsible away from the cage, but inside he’s acutely aware of his duties, and that awareness tends to pay dividends.

I’m picking Nick, and in several hundred words I’ll explain why. Let me first say that I don’t think Nick is the better striker of the two. Penn is quicker, has more power, and has tremendous instincts as a counter puncher. For all of the praise fans and the media heap on Nick for his boxing ability, it’s only ever come in firefights against opponents all too willing to slug with him. Santos, Daley, Zaromskis, and Noons stood right there in the pocket and simply gave him too many opportunities to accumulate the kind of punishment Diaz needs in order to win the fight. He’s a “death by a thousand cuts” kind of puncher, and will never be mistaken as a bong worshiping welterweight version of Ernie Shavers.

For sure, Nick is neither fast (like Edgar), or physical (like Fitch). Penn has only ever lost this way, so if Nick can’t threaten in the way Edgar and Fitch did, why would Nick stand a chance? Well, I think the problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes Penn can only ever lose two ways.

Nick gives Penn a new look. Of all the strikers Penn has fought, he’s never encountered an opponent willing to get in his face. The guys that were, like Diego Sanchez, just weren’t very good on the feet. I’d never consider making the comparison of Nick Diaz with Frankie Edgar, but Edgar confounded Penn in the rematch. Yes due to superior speed, and agility, which Nick almost defiantly lacks, but it revealed that BJ can be flustered in fights.

Moreover, Penn can get caught reacting too much, making him at times inert. When you look at BJ’s losses, part of the problem stems from the fact that he’s too willing to let his opponents dictate the pace and rhythm of the fight. Even in his victory against Florian, Penn was content to let Kenny stall the fight against the cage. It wasn’t a big deal at UFC 101 because Florian was no GSP, but it’s how Fitch and GSP found success (despite the draw in Fitch’s case).

Of course, Fitch and GSP couldn’t be more different than Nick, but it illustrates BJ’s proclivity to react more than actively engage. And so it’s possible Penn, like the opponents Nick beat, does get caught in a firefight. But I just said Penn is the better boxer…

Well, I do believe that. Part of that believe stems from the fact that even in beating guys like Daley, Zaromskis, and Santos…Nick still had some trouble. For one, he’s pretty hittable. If a guy like Zaromskis can find the sweet spot, why not the much more brilliant Penn? I agree, but despite this, I think Nick’s ability to wade through the firepower of Paul Daley also illustrates what should be his ability to wade through Penn’s. Nick didn’t just get hurt, and win with a hail mary punch. He got hurt, got back up, and kept pressuring until his opponent broke. If Paul Daley’s left hand couldn’t discourage Nick, why would BJ’s? In a dogfight, you can’t ignore Nick’s resolve, and it’s a factor in this fight precisely because Penn will oblige Nick on the feet.

My argument more or less rests on the assumption that Penn won’t take the fight to the ground. Not because he respects Nick’s ground game (Penn is the one with a Mundials gold medal, not Nick), but because he himself loves to scrap. You can probably count on one hand the number of times Penn has actively sought to take the fight to the ground. Penn’s instinct to go for the takedown is usually motivated by a fighter that’s hurt (see Florian and Stevenson). But even where desperation requires it, as we saw against Frankie Edgar in the rematch, Penn doesn’t seem keen on doing so. In his fight against Jon Fitch, Penn was executing what felt like a fresh gameplan by initiating the wrestling, but he seemed to ditch it in the later rounds.

Even so, despite what I think is the advantage for Penn on the ground as well, it’s not as if Nick is chopped sativa on the ground. Diaz is comfortable on his back, and won’t be in any danger of being submitted so long as he has his faculties. But can Diaz actually submit Penn off his back? To torture the MMA cliche, ‘anything can happen’. Though I highly doubt it, if Rani Yahya, an ADCC veteran and winner of the 66kg division in 2007 could get submitted by Gesias Cavalcante, why not Penn by Diaz? Two different fighters, sure, but a medal isn’t submission proof and both have considerable experience, and know how to capitalize with a submission. 

If we fast forwarded to a parallel universe where Nick wins by TKO victory, Nick’s path is on the feet. He takes a few like he always does, loses the first round, but keeps coming. Establishing distance to keep from being countered with regularity, Nick maintains a boxing pace Penn simply can’t keep up with. Penn doesn’t always fight to his strengths, and he seems confused when things don’t go his way.

On top of that, perhaps it’s fair to ask whether or not Penn is fully motivated? One of the most bizarre narratives going into this fight was the promo dispute involving Penn and the UFC where BJ made an issue out of making a prediction for the fight. He’s only ever not fought for the UFC in five bouts. It’s weird to think how the UFC constructs their pre-fight interviews would suddenly be an issue. Does he have too much respect for Nick? Could that be a factor? On top of everything, a Penn win means a third fight with GSP should Condit lose. Is Penn keenly aware of his place in the division? Few people are interested in a potential third fight. Though Zuffa could always sell it as a faux-trilogy given the first fight’s controversy. But BJ took a significant beating in the rematch. Was the beating enough to remind Penn that WW is not his true home? For all of Penn’s talents, and accomplishments, he’s been chased out of LW, and WW with both current champs having beaten him twice. To what degree does this affect BJ’s mindset?

Regardless of who loses, the fans win. While much has been made of the UFC 137 switcheroo, I think these should have been the proper matchups in the first place, with Nick earning himself a shot at the title with a much better win than what his opponents in Strikeforce could offer.

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 58 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

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