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Pride Final Conflict Absolute 2006: analysis and predictions
By Stephan | September 8, 2006
I enjoy doing these reviews, but I’m no expert, just a fan! If you want a more qualified review, check out a great preview by Stephen Quadros.
First of all, wow, what an amazing card! I really hope that Pride survives, they do have the best fighters. Here are the fights that I’m looking forward to see.
Kharitonov vs A. Emelianenko
Sergei Kharitonov is very well rounder, a very good striker and very good grappler as well. You probably remember his last lost against Overeem at Pride 31, he was on his back and couldnt muster much, he was just taking a beating, the ref finally stopped it. As he got up he looked like he had a dislocated shoulder. It was very nasty looking too. Sergei is probably the most aspiring contender to Fedor.
Fedor’s brother, Aleksander, ya, the one with the grim reaper tattoo on his back holding a baby. He is an accomplished Sambo practitioner. He is coming off a loss to Josh Barnett (who looked much improved). Aleksander really beat himself in that fight, he ran out of gas and was submitted, not taking anything away from Josh.
Regardless, this should be a great war, both fighters are looking to bounce back from a loss. In the end I pick Kharitonov to win by decision, because he has demonstrated that he wont give up. I say by decision, but I can definitely see by KO here, but Emelionenko wont give in and neither will Kharitonov.
Ricardo Arona vs Alistair Overeem
Arona’s totally surprised many people last year in defeating Wanderlei Silva in the tournament. In the New Years Eve rematch, he lost by a slim decision. Ricardo has shown that he has the stuff to hang out with the bests. His ground skill and cardio are excellent, his striking however is not technically as good as Overeem, but his punch have a lot of power.
Alistair Overeem, was defeated earlier in this tournament when his corner threw in the towel against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (Nogueira in the rest of this article). Alistair was not happy, the reason the towel was thrown was because Alistair had a neck injury. Alistair is a formidable kickboxer with decent ground skills. His question mark is always his cardio and stamina dropping off.
Based on this, I think Arona will take it, by sub in the 2nd round.
“Shogun” Rua vs Cyrille “The Snake” Diabete
Shogun Rua is the ideal MMA fighter, and he’s young. His JiuJitsu is amazing and his stand up is also very good. His latest lost came from a freak fall to Mark Coleman where he broke his arm falling. Hopefully he review his “Breakfall 101”, because even though that qualified as somewhat of a controversy, any Judo and most JiuJitsu practitioners would have boken their fall properly, but I digress.
I dont know much about Diabete, he seems to be known for his excellent stand up. Based on that, and the fact that “Shogun” is so well rounded, he should be taking this easily, probably by submission. A loss would not be good at this point.
Tournament semi finals
Wanderlei Silva vs “Crocop”
The Axe Murderer is a madman, for jumping without hesitation in the Open-Weight tournament (above his natural weight class) and second to face Crocop. Both fighters have not met in a long time and are definitely different fighters now, specially Mirko. Last time they met under special rules and it was a draw. I cant see see Wanderlei wanting to stand up too long with Mirko, but he is a madman, and probably could hang there for awhile. His best chance is taking him down and pounding Mirko there.
Mirko has become a very well rounded fighter since his early beginnings. He has his sight set on fighting Fedor again, for this he needs to win the tournament.
This should not disappoint. Still because of weight advantage, I can see Crocop winning by decision, I dont see Wanderlei having an easy time of pounding Mirko, Mirko has shown time and time again how string his chin is.
Josh Barnett vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Josh has really impressed me lately with his conditioning and skills, he seems rejuvenated. He seems to be in his best shape ever. I can really picture him winning the championship. He used to fight sloppily, but now seems much more focused. However to win the championship, he has an incredible opponent to face.
“Minotauro” may not be getting younger, but experience is on his side. Nogueira also never gives up, he can and will go the distance, he will not be submitted easily.
I still think Josh will win this, but this should be a great grappling match between two masters of submissions. I give the edge to Josh because of his strength, although we have not seen him go long distance for awhile, while we know Nogueira can.
Josh to win tournament
In the end, I cant wait for this event. This is by far the best card of the year anywhere. As Zach pointed out, there does not seem to be such a buzz about it, but I am stoked for it! I pick Josh to win against Crocop, but regardless of who wins, this should be a great event to watch!
Topics: All Topics, MMA, PRIDE, Stephan Marceau | 5 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
I’m not a fan of Pride so I won’t check out this PPV despite the stellar line up. However I will say this, Stephan Marceau & Dr.J give the best MMA previews around. Always a great read. I’ll take a “fan” preview over an “expert” preview anyday.
[…] Stephan Marceau of Fight Opinion has wriiten a very nice preview of the show that you can check out here. […]
I disagree with the idea of Mirko winning a decision over Wanderlei just because Wanderlei will probably be far more active. The weight difference is really non existent in this fight as I see both guys coming in around 220-225 lbs. Mirko I would say has the ability to knock Wanderlei with a single shot, so I could see him winning. But I could see Wanderlei keeping close with Mirko and working the Thai clinch thus making it impossible for Mirko to go for his vaunted high kick. With every Mirko fight you have to factor how mentally prepared he’ll be. I just see Wanderlei having that killer instinct and Mirko just trying to hold on the whole fight. But again anything can happen.
To Me Barnett vs. Fedor is the most interesting challenge as Barnett is probably the most well rounded guy Fedor hasn’t fought yet. Noguiera is a hard guy to read cause other than Fedor he seems always outclass his opponents. I think on the ground he’ll have the advantage but Barnett is just to skilled in my mind to get caught. The big question mark on Barnett since his return following the shoulder injury has been his cardio. Training with Tito in the mountains has likely improved him tremendously in that regard. However if spends the whole fight going for takedowns and ground N’ Pounding by the last round he could start to lose it and that could allow Noguiera a chance to pull it out. I’ll take Barnett as well just because to me the answer the Noguiera’s style is to just ground n’ pound him for three rounds and avoid submissions and I think barnett can do that.
The finals as I’ve predicted them should end up Wanderlei vs. Barnett. All things being equal I’d pick Barnett in that fight as Barnett’s a good wrestler and Wanderlei seems to have a weakness in that area.
I dont know how Mr. Quadros holds such a position in the MMA world! His opinions are more like coments from an amature fan, who has never put on a GI or a Glove…very superficial, and lacking a real understanding of this sport. The result of Minotauro X Barnet should prove this, for Barnet, although a great fighter, does not have the tools to beat Minotauro, neither standing up, or downstairs, obviuosly!
I’ve already posted my predictions for the OWGP-matches in the other thread, so i’ll just stick to the rest of the card:
Kharitonov vs Emelianenko:
I see Kharitonov taking the win in this one. Kharitonov is just the more well rounded fighter of the two, and doesn’t gas as easily as Aleks does. I see Sergei taking the lead, just avoiding Aleks punches, waiting for him to gas, and then taking him down and submitting him, just like Barnett did.
Arona vs Overeem:
I must admit that this prediction is based solely upon my disdain for Arona. I think that he’s a whining SOB, and really hope that Overeem brings his A-Game and knocks Arona out with one of those nifty flying knees.
Shogun Rua vs Cyril Diabate:
Sorry all you nuthuggers, but Shogun just isn’t the second coming of Christ to me, even if you’re all making him out to be just that. Yes, he has come a long way since he lost to Babalu, but still, i’m not really sold on him. Everyone’s always talking about his BJJ being so great, so slick, so amazing – but yet he never finished a fight with it. Apart from one decision all his wins were via k.o. and tko. And those were all mostly against fighters that are known for their groundgame, then for being stand-up fighters (apart from Overeem). And therefore i’ll just go out on a limb here and say that he’ll be the one taking a nap this time against Diabate. His fight record may not be the best at 10-5-1, but he’s great at muay thai, so i’d say he’ll keep out of Shoguns reach (which shouldn’t be that big of a problem, being around 6″ taller than Shogun), picking him apart with some nicely placed kicks and punches.
Nishijima vs Santos
I like Cyborg, i really do, but somehow i have the feeling that it won’t be as easy for him to k.o. the former japanese pro-boxer like he did with his other opponents. I think when he tries to shoot in or clinch, he’ll be clocked in the head, and the fight will be over.
Nakamura vs Nakao
The battle of the Naka’s, only one will survive! And that one will be Kaz Nakamura. He has faced much better competition than Nakao, who’s only claim of “fame” is being knocked out by Heath Herring BEFORE their actual fight. Nakao may have a slight height and weight advantage in this, but still i see Kaz taking him down and submitting him…
Ricardo Morais vs Lee Tae-Hyun
It’s the mutant vs the new guy. To me Morais is the brazilian equivalent to James Thompson, big, muscular, but no talent. It may be Tae-Hyuns first mma-fight, but judging from his career in Ssireum i’d guess he should have no problem taking Morais down. I honestly don’t know what will happen then, because like i said, i don’t know what he’s capable of without having him seen fighting at least once, but i’m predicting he’ll win. Somehow.