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Tasty gambling odds/lines for upcoming big #UFC fights @FightOdds

By Zach Arnold | October 8, 2011

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Our friend Nick Kalikas continues to work hard at setting some good lines for upcoming UFC fights. In the video embedded here, check out the line he put on the Rick Story/Martin Kampmann fight (Story -140, Kampmann +110) & the Brian Bowles/Urijah Faber fight (Faber at -200). There’s lots of intriguing lines on upcoming fights, including some biggies that we’ll take a look at here right now.

For informational & entertainment purposes only.

UFC 136 in Houston

Frankie Edgar (-130, 13 to 10 favorite) vs. Gray Maynard (+110, 11 to 10 underdog)

The line sounds right and, yet, I’m compelled to think that Maynard should be considered here simply because of the damage he did early on to Frankie in R1 of their last fight. It took a mad comeback just to even things up after a five round battle.

The line has stayed relatively stable, although money has been coming in for Maynard.

Chael Sonnen (-260, 13 to 5 favorite) vs. Brian Stann (+220, 2 to 1 underdog)

The line has stayed the same since it was first made. I thought more money would come in on Stann given the long layoff Sonnen has had (even if he’ll be back to using TRT, right?).

The line has remained steady throughout.

Jose Aldo (-350, 7 to 2 favorite) vs. Kenny Florian (+300, 3 to 1 underdog)

Aldo being a 3-to-1 favorite sounds about right. Don’t tell Luke Thomas that, who absolutely loves Florian in this spot and thinks Kenny is a big step up for Aldo in competition. That’s probably accurate but look at Kenny’s history in title fights. He’s simply not the same fighter in title bouts as he is in non-title fights.

Since the initial line was set, virtually all the money has gone on Aldo here. The line on him went from -280 to -350. Florian’s line jumped nearly +100.

Melvin Guillard (-400, 4 to 1 favorite) vs. Joe Lauzon (+350, 7 to 2 underdog)

Melvin’s win over Evan Dunham has done his wonders in terms of gaining respect amongst the fans and bettors. He’s certainly more athletic than Joe and has great coaching, but 3 to 1 sounds rather large here.

The line here has dramatically risen on both sides. Guillard is the heavy favor amongst bettors. Lauzon’s line jumped nearly +100 like Florian.

Anthony Pettis (-300, 3 to 1 favorite) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+240, 12 to 5 underdog)

Even though styles make fights, I’m surprised that bettors have not had their confidence shaken in Mr. Pettis. He had a lousy showing against Clay Guida last June (you’ll remember that show as the one where Dana White was too busy fighting Bloodstain Lane on Twitter to watch the fights unfolding in front of him).

The one thing Stephens has going for him is that he’s fought some very tough, respectable competition in the UFC and as we’re seeing with guys being introduced into the Zuffa family from other promotions, there is no substitute for having a long track record against fighting real competition.

The money has sharply gone on Pettis.

UFC 137 in Las Vegas

Georges St. Pierre (-400, 4 to 1 favorite) vs. Carlos Condit (+350, 7 to 2 underdog)

In other words, the same standard line we always see with St. Pierre for his title fights. If you’re looking for a ray of sunshine as to why Condit stands a chance, read what Jordan Breen said here.

BJ Penn (-130, 13 to 10 favorite) vs. Nick Diaz (EVEN)

I am perplexed and befuddled by this line. BJ is only a -130 favorite? Are people sleeping on this line or are there so many hardcore Nick Diaz fans out there willing to put money on ‘their guy’ (ala Fedor) that you end up with crazy lines like this? I would not be shocked to see Penn up as a -200 favorite by fight time. If not, then that means there’s a lot of fish out there ready to get reeled in and you should love, love, love that -130 line on a lot of levels.

Someone please explain to me what Nick Diaz does better than BJ Penn and just exactly the course in which he wins this fight. By decision? How? Penn on top position is a win for BJ since US judges are hesistant to award points to guys on their back (rightly or wrongly). Striking-wise, Penn would love to drill Diaz with a few power shots. In terms of experience and quality of opponents faced, Penn blows Diaz out the water.

Matt Mitrione (-130, 13 to 10 favorite) vs. Cheick Kongo (EVEN)

This, right here, is a wild line. Do you put Mitrione in the same category as Pat Barry in terms of offensive striking? I get it, Kongo showed horrible defense against Barry in their Pittsburgh fight. Plus, Mitrione has won a string of fights recently in highlight fashion. However, he’s facing a guy that can easily knock him out fast and do so in very devastating fashion. I’m shocked that Kongo is not the favorite here and by a substantial margin, say, by a 3 to 2 margin.

Mark Munoz (-220, 11 to 5 favorite) vs. Chris Leben (+180, 9 to 5 underdog)

It sounds about right?

Cain Velasquez (-140, 7 to 5 favorite) vs. Junior dos Santos (+120, 6 to 5 underdog)

Wow, there’s a lot of people not buying into Velasquez as the man, yet. I think a lot of the concern here is about whether or not he has full healed from the rotator cuff surgery. I can definitely see some value here for Cain if you’re a big believer in him as being the dominant ‘ace’ of the UFC HW division for some time to come.

Mauricio Shogun (-160, 8 to 5 favorite) vs. Dan Henderson (+130, 13 to 10 underdog)

A dream fight for both hardcore and casual fans. A lot of people are already excited to pick Henderson to win here and feel that the money will come in on Shogun because of the ‘Forrest Griffin effect’ as our buddy Luca Fury likes to say.

Alistair Overeem (-140, 7 to 5 favorite) vs. Brock Lesnar (+120, 6 to 5 underdog)

That’s a much tighter line than I expected. I thought the initial line would be heavier in favor of Overeem.

Michael Bisping (-200, 2 to 1 favorite) vs. Mayhem Miller (+160, 8 to 5 underdog)

Like the Overeem line, I’m surprised that Bisping isn’t a higher favorite here.

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 20 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

20 Responses to “Tasty gambling odds/lines for upcoming big #UFC fights @FightOdds”

  1. fd says:

    “Nate Diaz (-280, 14 to 5 favorite) vs. Takanori Gomi (+200, 2 to 1 underdog)
    Nate got suplexed to death by Rory MacDonald at UFC 129 in Toronto but he’s not facing that kind of opponent here. It’s possible Gomi could tag him but it’s more likely that we’ll see Nate do the same thing to Gomi as Marcus Aurelio did several years ago.”

    Uh, not really. If Nate wins (which is not unlikely) it’ll be by doing the same thing his brother did to Gomi; wearing him down on the feet and subbing him from his back when he shoots out of desperation. What “Marcus Aurelio did” was take Gomi down and take advantage of his weak bottom game, and Nate’s wrestling isn’t likely to be good enough to duplicate that.

    • Steve4192 says:

      I agree with fd in regards to Gomi-Diaz. Nate thinks he is his brother. He is always looking to box people up first and use his BJJ only when his opponent puts him on the mat. He’s going to try and stand and bang with Gomi, and I don’t think he is going to like how that works out.

      I wouldn’t touch that Guillard line with a 10 foot pole. Melvin is about due to self-destruct in a fight, and Joe is exactly the kind of crafty opponent to take advantage of a vintage Guillard brain-fart.

      The Pettis-Stephens line about right to me. Stephens, like Nate Diaz, is always looking to stand and bang. As we saw in his fight with Guillard, he struggles with opponents who are quicker than him and can avoid his plodding footwork and haymakers. I think Pettis will take him to school in a striking battle.

      Unfortunately, Eddie Alvarez is injured and his fight with Chandler will not happen for a while. I agree that would have been an excellent fight to bet the favorite. 13-5 was not nearly high enough.

      Completely agree on BJ-Diaz. BJ is a MASSIVE bargain at that price. The only thing that worries me is BJ’s cardio. He has a tendency to wilt late, and Diaz has one of the best gas tanks in the sport. If this were a five rounder, I might hesitate a little, but I think even fat BJ can win two rounds and survive a third.

      Mitrione-Kongo …. meh. Both guys are mediocre. Mitrione has less wear & tear on him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kongo’s chin finally gives out and Mitrione KO’s him. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kongo bullies his way to a win. I don’t see much upside to putting money on that fight.

      Munoz-Leben could be interesting. I have not been impressed with how Munoz’s wrestling has translated to MMA. I wouldn’t be surprised if Leben stuffs him in the early rounds and then KO’s a gassed out Munoz in the third.

      • fd2 says:

        BJ doesn’t have a tendency to wilt late. He has a tendency to wilt when guys don’t let him set the pace.

        Against Sherk he was fine in round 3, against Florian he was fine in round 4, and against Diego he was fine in round 5 – all because those guys weren’t capable of forcing him to fight at a pace he wasn’t comfortable with.

        Frankie, Hughes (in the second fight) and Fitch all made him wilt because they forced him to fight at a faster pace than he wanted.

        I don’t believe that Diaz has the kind of game that can put that kind of pressure on BJ.

        • edub says:

          “BJ doesn’t have a tendency to wilt late. He has a tendency to wilt when guys don’t let him set the pace.”

          That’s a great point.

  2. 45 Huddle says:

    Jones beats Rampage – I can’t remember the last time I was looking forward to such a one sided fight.

    Koscheck retires Hughes

    Nate Diaz beats Gomi…. Not because he is that good but because Gomi is that bad now.

    Cruz beats Johnson…. Johnson is a Flyweight and isn’t on the same level.

    Edgar beats Maynard…. But of all of my predictions here, I am least sure of this one. a few small adjustments by Maynard and he will KO Edgar. Very hard fight to predict….

    Florian beats Aldo…. And i think he actually might submit him in the first round.

    Guillard, Pettis, Alvarez (fights being delayed) all win.

    GSP beats Condit, but I would love to see the upset.

    Penn beats Diaz…. And makes Strikeforce look even that much worse.

    Mitrione, Munoz both win….

    Cain Velasquez beats Junior Dos Santos…. The only reason JDS has a slight shot is because Velasquez was out for so long. but look at Velasquez actually stopping JDS and breaking his will be the 3rd or 4th round….

    Shogun beats Henderson…. Henderson just isn’t a top tier Light Heavyweight and Shogun is Top 3 in the world.

    Lesnar beats Overeem…. Overeem isn’t fast enough to make Lesnar pay on his feet. And that chin of his will get him in trouble once the first or second Lesnar hammerfist hits him. It will look a lot like Lesnar/Mir 2.

    Bisping beats Mayhem. Mayhem isn’t that good.

  3. edub says:

    Comments getting lost again…

    Man, money is gonna be put down here:

    -Nick Diaz is one of the best ones on here.

    -Overeem – Lesnar is close, but Overeem’s a beast early in the fight so he’ll be hard to take down.

    -Shogun has a lot of tools to beat Dan with.

    -Bisping will beat Miller, no question in my mind.

    -Cain – JDS is a pick em.

    -Mitirione has had like 3 fights, but I still see him picking apart Kongo.

    -GSP ain’t losing.

    -I will be putting down money on Alvarez asap if that line stays the same.

    -Already have an underdog bet on Stephens.

    -Jonny Bones is gonna smash Rampage.

    -Johnson will have absolutely nothing for Cruz.

    -Kos is gonna retire Hughes.

    Hopefully injuries don’t kill half these fights.

  4. Stel says:

    I’ll go with the pride alumni this weekend, rampage and Gomi are both due for KO victories over their hyperactive opponents.
    Diaz over penn, Diaz has the conditioning + reach advantage those are big right there, Penn has wrestling advantage which doesn’t mean as much when they are equal in grappling with the size edge to diaz, he’s too big for Penn on the ground and feet.

    If Penn wants to win he will need a Fedor v Nog 3 type game plan of zipping in punching and throwing diaz down. That’s going to tire BJ out like it did Fedor, but he could get a 29-28 decision if he works the gameplan.

    Dos Santos over CayIn(remember when they used to mispronounce his name?), Cain has a better overall game but its the layoff which I believe evens it up. Cain rusty, striking not as good as Santos, Santos confident(not always good thing) can take a punch and improved wrestling past year. Could very well be a 5 round tentative stalkfest.

    Condit goes for it and will take it to GSP all the time, gsp will counter him, but eventually he’s going to get gsp.

    • fd2 says:

      “Penn has wrestling advantage which doesn’t mean as much when they are equal in grappling”

      Yeah, but they aren’t.

      • Stel says:

        penn has a faster and better technical bjj game but he is smaller and works more of the top game, Diaz is a lot longer which evens out the skill level with leverage, and hes more of a off the back bjj guy. So I see it being an exciting battle wherever it goes but still going with Diaz on this one. If Penn doe

  5. david m says:

    I have seen nothing from Cain that makes me think he won’t get knocked out by J2S.

  6. Michael Rome says:

    I think Cain is a great bet here. He’ll have a hard time taking Junior down early, but as long as he keeps at it he will absolutely exhaust him by the end of the second round, and he’ll either finish or get the decision. Dos Santos is just not the athlete Cain is; he will gas in this fight unless he wins in round 1.

  7. Kelvin Hunt says:

    lol@ Florian beating Aldo…Aldo gonna test that chin early and often…and Florian will not be getting up once Aldo pounces on him…

  8. David M says:

    Michael what have you seen from J2S to make you think he will gas? When he has gassed in the UFC? He taxed the chins of Roy and Carwin for 15 full minutes.

    Cain got dropped multiple times by Kongo; his chin is really in trouble against Junior, who has fought better fighters than Cain has and showed no chin issues whatsoever to speak of. Carwin is the hardest puncher in the division, and he was completely outclassed both on the feet and in the wrestling department against Junior.

  9. David M says:

    The idea that Kenny Florian is somehow a different fighter in title fights is beyond moronic. He just is fighting better guys. Was Kenny a different fighter when he got embarrassed by Maynard? When Diego lit his ass up? No. He doesn’t do as well against better fighters. This is perhaps the simplest concept on Earth, yet mma conspiracy theorists, err, journalists, love to pretend there is a story when there isn’t one.

  10. bluerosekiller says:

    – I think Aldo tears Florian up tonight in what will likely be the first TUF season alum’s final chance at UFC gold. That is, unless of course, KenFlo decides to lose a limb in an attempt to move down to 135…
    Seriously though, I think Aldo’s blend of speed & power finishes him off via leg kicks & heavy punches in about the third round.

    – And I actually like Stann in a big upset over Sonnen. Via TKO.
    I just think all this long forced inactivity & the lack of “vitamin T” is going to take a big toll on the decorated wrestler & his chin won’t stand up to the Marine’s heavy punches.

    – And, in the main event, I think the third time’s gonna be the charm for Frankie via close decision.

  11. bluerosekiller says:

    And on the 29th?

    – Kongo’s a HUGE step up Mitrione.
    So much so that I’m really tempted to go with the vet in this one even though I’m a big fan of Matt’s. But, Kongo’s the guy that gave Heath Herring his final win & was life & death with Travis Browne & Pat Berry. So, if Mitrione steps his game up to the next level like I think he can, he wins this one.

    – And, although I hope like hell that Condit can do with his beauty of a left hook what another big ‘dog did to GSP with his right hand years ago, it’s not likely. As per usual, we’re in store for another W pts 5 for the Canadian.

    – In MY main event of the evening, I believe we’re going to see Nick Diaz rise to the occasion in the octagon & take BJ Penn apart. Via punches. Cutting, swelling & eventually dropping him enroute to a Ko or TKO victory in the third.

  12. edub says:

    Gave you a shout out on the Lowkick chat doing PBP tonight. Figured you loved the WWF moment with Chael Zach.

  13. RST says:

    I dont know much about this gambling, my luck doesn’t work that way.
    And I try to steer clear of it ever since I met my first degenerate gambler who disgusted me more then some crackheads I’ve met.

    But if I did, a few of those underdogs look like they have a pretty good chance IMO:

    Lebens got a good chance.
    Does pretty much anything Munoz can but has more experience and hardheaded as hell.

    Hendo’s got a good chance.
    Especially if the same shogun from his last 2 fights shows up.
    (I dont like this fight.)

    Santos has a good chance.
    His hands are better then Cains IMO.
    And he’s agile and powerful enough to stuff takedowns. A finish for Cain will depend on Cain getting him down IMO.

    The Brock has a good chance.
    Overeem cant wrestle.
    He can stuff a rudimentary takedown or two, but the Brock is an ACTUAL wrestler. Hopefully the Brock is smart enough to put all of his effort into takedowns.

    Miller has got a much better chance then those numbers IMO.
    Does Bisping have ANY ground game? At all?
    And miller might be an ass, but he’s smarter then to let Bisping KO him on his feet. Millers been there and done that before Bisping even heard of the sport.

    Although it should be noted that these opinions come with the caveat that whenever I predict something, usually the opposite will happen.
    (I’m not sure which comes first.)

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