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Talk Radio: Rating Chael Sonnen’s chances versus Anderson Silva and how a Silva/GSP fight in UFC would be different
By Zach Arnold | June 10, 2010
From Jordan Breen’s radio show on Tuesday, a caller asked him to talk about the best trash talkers in MMA and of course Chael Sonnen’s name got mentioned. The conversation also shifted to MMA’s worst trash talkers.
Then the conversation turned towards what kind of chance Sonnen has for winning his upcoming fight against Anderson Silva either by a finish or by points as opposed to losing but looking respectable in the process.
Afterwards, the discussion moved into how different an Anderson Silva/Georges St. Pierre fight would look in comparison to the upcoming Silva/Sonnen battle.
First, a conversation about MMA’s best and worst trash talkers:
JORDAN BREEN: “Yes, Sonnen has definitely taken the bar and thrown it several miles higher than it once was. One guy that I think is fantastic that isn’t necessarily getting loved for being fantastic, I think people will read his trash talking as like candor and so I don’t think they diagnose in the same way they do guys like Chael Sonnen or Dan Hardy or whoever is BJ Penn. BJ Penn is fantastic at saying incendiary things and mocking his opponents and turning them into figures for ridicule and most incredibly and very pro-wrestling or maybe not even pro-wrestling but just theatrical style, BJ Penn’s equally adept at sort of playing face and heel. He can be someone who’s supposed to be the good guy you know whether it’s like you know Sean Sherk and he’s exploiting the fact that he tested for steroids or portraying himself as the morally superior athlete or he can go an entirely different route and sort of be the devilish figure that he comes across as whenever Georges St. Pierre is in the equation. So, I think BJ Penn not even just in the trash talking sense but the overall pro-wrestling sense is a fantastic asset because not only can he sort of stir up any kind of opponent with both wit and sort of selfish depravity, he can also play either side of the coin as the good guy or the bad guy. So I would say BJ Penn for special commendation (for) that he doesn’t always get in that respect.
“That is the hard thing right now in the wake of Chael Sonnen. At this point in time his trash talking casts such an enormous shadow over everyone.”
TJ DE SANTIS: “I can say one that thinks he’s really good but I think in all reality is really bad and that’s Tito Ortiz.”
JORDAN BREEN: “If there was an award between differential and perceived trash talking ability, especially their own perception and the actual ability, really Tito Ortiz would be near the bottom of the list.”
TJ DE SANTIS: “Because Tito thinks he’s really good.”
JORDAN BREEN: “Think about this — at the time where Tito was christened this great trash talker and it really crystallized and coalesced for him he was dealing with guys who talked about living death and kicking chairs and this kind of thing. Like the standard, the best wasn’t particularly high.”
TJ DE SANTIS: “I mean Tito holds the biggest groaner for me and that’s the middle school Chuck (Liddell) holds his middle finger up, ‘you’ll always be number one in my book.’ I mean that one was just, oh man, really?”
JORDAN BREEN: “How can you leave out ‘The Iceman looks more like the Snowman’ to me?”
TJ DE SANTIS: “Ken Shamrock also is just notoriously bad. ‘I’mg going to beat you into a living death.’ I mean, I don’t know if it gets any better than that.”
JORDAN BREEN: “Ken Shamrock is also incredibly horrible due to the fact that he has pro-wrestling experience which should only make him better at this kind of thing yet has seemingly only served to make him worse.”
Bringing up Sonnen’s name brought up a caller asking about just what kind of performance Chael will be able to have against the Middleweight champion.
CALLER: “I’m not sure about his defensive guard. I mean he doesn’t have like active hips and dynamic guard game like say a Paulo Filho or something like that. And all he does is like you know the body triangle thing and just hope for the referee stand-up and I think Sonnen won’t mind that. He’s good from inside the guard… so what do you think about that?”
JORDAN BREEN: “I agree, but I think that that’s one of those things that reflects the difference between doing well and actually having a chance to win. I definitely think Chael Sonnen has the chance to go and not completely embarrass himself but that’s not really the same thing as doing well, is it? Because I don’t think he has a great way to win the fight. He would have to wrestle Silva for five rounds or at least three of the five rounds and then in the other two not get completely splattered. So I don’t think it’s a great match-up from that perspective. I think maybe it’s a match-up like a (Diego) Sanchez-Penn or like a Penn-(Kenny) Florian where a guy’s able to stick around for a while, not completely embarrass himself, but in general is going to be fairly outclassed and is going to ultimately end up losing when it comes to the actual idea of well who’s actually doing damage, who’s actually beating up his opponent. I don’t think Sonnen’s going to win the fight, but yeah I’ll agree that he’s probably get some takedowns and not completely look out of his depth.”
Then an e-mailer asked about seemingly everyone’s dream match-up of a fight between Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre.
JORDAN BREEN: “Cameron who I believe is in Edmonton writes in, what’s the difference between a Anderson Silva/Georges St. Pierre and a Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen fight? Well, I think a worthwhile question since after all Anderson Silva vs. Georges St. Pierre is the sought-after dream fight in Mixed Martial Arts and more than that Georges St. Pierre is certainly a very good wrestler. The problem with that is Georges St. Pierre also has far superior guard-passing ability and far superior submission ability to Chael Sonnen. We know that Georges St. Pierre has some holes in his submission game. His back control, for whatever reason, leaves a lot to be desired. But, he’s still a fantastic guard-passer and is still great at taking position and dominant position very, very easily and more than that is much better at threatening with submission than Chael Sonnen. At this point in time, I don’t want to hear about any guy beating Anderson Silva if he doesn’t have a viable submission game. Short of the most miraculous and amazing punch, there’s no guy that has the combination of power and technique to catch Anderson Silva clean enough to knock him out. Not just without sort of the most fortuitous lining up of the stars and I’m sick of hearing just about like standard-fare wrestlers. Chael Sonnen, the fact that as I lamented in the past, people think that Dan Henderson was always like this great match-up for Anderson Silva. If you can’t get this guy out of the cage, you’re not going to win. If you have to outwrestle Anderson Silva for 25 minutes, have fun getting only your show money, homie, you’re not going to win. 25 minute fights or really any fight beyond the 15 minute mark is always going to favor the markedly more dynamic fighter. Always. The guy who actually has a way to finish the fight, if you have to just keep taking him down repeatedly and you don’t even have a way to affect proper offense… It’s one thing if Georges St. Pierre or someone like that takes guys down repeatedly because you know they have the cardiovascular ability but as well as the actual technical grappling ability to hold them to the mat, to take dominant positions, and to do it repeatedly. But other guys who every time it ends up on the feet they’re in the danger zone waiting to get killed, praying for another takedown, not going to happen. At this point in time the only guys I want to hear about fighting Anderson Silva and hear about as legitimate threats, I shouldn’t say hear about fighting because for me that’s a different thing, I want to see guys who deserve to fight Anderson Silva fight Anderson Silva. So in that respect, for instance, even if I don’t think that Vitor Belfort has a chance that some make him out to have, I do want to see it. But, the only guys I’m concerned with talking about as a threat to Anderson Silva are guys who can get takedowns, pass guard, and submit him. Beyond that, you’re not going to win. Really. Realistically. Not going to happen. I do think Georges St. Pierre has a chance to do that while Chael Sonnen doesn’t and for me that would be the big shift between the two.”
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 28 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Chael Sonnen will beat Anderson Silva. Watch the first round of Silva/Henderson. The round that Henderson acted like a wrestler. Silva could do nothing.
Sonnen is a better MMA wrestler then Henderson is. And he has no delusions of being a striker, which will benefit him. Silva can always land a strike and end it, but it’s nit likely to happen.
And Silva would beat GSP. That’s just a size issue more then anything else. If GSP was the size of a normal MW, his wrestling would help him beat Silva.
Then Silva got mad in R2 and destroyed him. Henderson did very little other than cover Anderson’s mouth and tap him on the head.
Exactly why this fight won’t go past 2 rounds. Anderosn will get another big time KO.
45’s run of picking dominance will end on this fight if he’s truly picking Sonnen.
Sonnen and St. Pierre are different kinds of wrestlers with different gameplans on the ground. Sonnen comes from the Couture tradition of just grinding you down and wearing you out on the ground. Like Couture, he’s comfortable working ground and pound from inside his opponent’s guard, and he works it constantly (which is why he has been so susceptible to guillotines and triangle chokes in the past). St. Pierre, on the other hand, usually picks his spots on the ground. He focuses far more on getting to a dominant position than a grinder like Sonnen would. I suspect that Anderson’s guard is pretty nearly impossible to pass with his long legs and defensive awareness, so I would think Sonnen’s ground approach is actually the more effective one. I seriously doubt Georges, with a Greg Jackson gameplan in his mind, would really sacrifice position to go for a submission in a fight against Silva. That being said, I think Anderson is going to submit Chael with a triangle choke.
Silva is going to submit Chael? Highly doubtful.
The biggest myth in MMA is Anderson Silva’s ground game. He was submitted twice in Pride. Was useless off his back in the first rounds of both to Lutter and Henderson fights. And was literally avoiding contact with Leitas and Maia to avoid the ground.
It’s the 2nd rouds of both the Lutter and Hnderson fights that gives this false belief that he is some great sub guy. Lutter was completely gassed and Henderson was rocked. And there is never a fear of submissions with Henderson.
Leitas and Maia failed because they don’t have the takedowns to exploit Silva’s weakness. Sonnen does. He refuses to even try and strike and is a true ground and pound specialist. Silva is in big trouble for this fight. Which is probably why Sonnen is talking so much smack with a smile on his face. This is his fight to lose and he probably knows it.
All of the champions are beatable. Lesnar is at risk if he cannot get the takedown. Fedor is weak off his back. Silva has holes in his groud game. GSP is afraid to get hit. Penn can be out worked. Rua has trouble with strong LHW’s who he can’t finish quickly. Cruz can be out grappled (Faber will beat him again).
Too many people act like these champions are unbeatable. They are not. It’s all about a high level guy with the right style to exploit thir weaknesses. An Sonnen is the guy to do that against Silva.
None of what you just said indicates how Sonnen will avoid a submission when he gets the fight to the mat. Given how often he’s submitted when in top control over the course of his career, its pretty cut and dry as to why one would expect him to get caught in a triangle or armbar.
How did we get from ‘he’s a good matchup against Silva’ to “this is his fight to lose?” I didn’t say that Silva is some top-level ground guy, but he does have a very good defensive guard with those long legs. He used a leg sweep to reverse Lutter from full mount (!), and then he subbed him from his back in the second (after threatening multiple submissions in the first). Henderson had him on the ground, but was unable to do any damage. And why would he go to the ground against one-dimensional guys like Maia and Leites if he doesn’t have to? Sonnen has proven throughout his career that he is a guillotine or triangle waiting to happen. That is the reason why I think Anderson will sub him.
I will say that Silva’s takedown defense does indeed seem to be his true weakness. I’ve read some writers speculate that Silva isn’t afraid to be taken down, which is why it happens to him so often, but I don’t believe that. I think that his long legs and lanky frame make it hard for him to fully resist a takedown from a persistent wrestler. He has good instincts as far as knowing when a takedown is coming, and he seems to have decent technique, but this is definitely where Sonnen has a chance to win the fight.
LOL at “Fedor is weak off his back”.
Fedor is incredibly dangerous off his back. He’s got the fastest hips I’ve ever seen on a HW and his armbar transitions are the best in the business, even better than Big Nog IMO.
But…but…Brett Rogers landed three punches from his guard!
Wow, some Fedor nuthugging going on here. I point out the flaws of each #1 fighter in the world (put Lesnar in that since he is the UFC Champion)….. Excpet for Aldo…. And the only comments that come back are about Fedor.
Please, continue to hang from his nuts….
Maybe you could have picked a legitimate criticism then instead of a blind shittalker’s stance?
– cuts easily? undersized? can be pushed around? susceptible to a tight striker?
But no you picked a blind DW-nutsucker position and wonder why you’re getting called on it. *Yawn* you’re played.
“Fedor is weak off his back.”
Come on, man.
Fedor is weak off his back….
That is if a full grown kodiak bear was on top, and even then I think Fedor get’s the sub.
What does smack talk have to do with knowledge you’re going to win? That would mean Frank Trigg would have the best record in MMA history and Josh Koscheck would be getting ready to defeat GSP for the 2nd time. Nobody says “I think I might win, i don’t know. I’ll try my best anyway.” Every fighter is confident. They wouldn’t fight if they weren’t.
Yes, Silva was submitted twice in PRIDE, but that was, what 7 years ago? He is not the same fighter he was in 2003. People are always so confident this is the time the ground fighter puts him away every fight he has. I remember so many people were 100% sure Maia was subbing him. Granted Sonnen’s takedowns are a billion times better, but still, Silva makes fighters fight his fight. Don’t let your hatred of the guy blind you to his skills. Especially because of some stupid promos. “ANDERSON SILVA I’LL SEE YOU IN THE CAGE BROTHER~! WHATCHA GONNA DO WHEN SONNENMANIA RUNS WILD ON YOU~!”
I disagree that Sonnen is a better trash talker than Ortiz. He’s running a fun gimmick, but if you go back and watch the Countdown episode for the second Tito/Chuck fight, Tito is such a natural weasel that people really want to see him get his ass kicked.
He actually has a record of convincing a lot of people to pay to see him, unlike a lot of “better” trash talkers.
For sure – Tito is the “chickenshit” fighter who runs his mouth and you want to see get his skull caved in. And against guys like Liddell he can more than oblige.
However, Sonnen is playing the card of “asskicking” smacktalker and defender of the fans honor against a guy that “doesn’t respect the fans” because (more or less) he has boring fights and doesn’t want to take risks. Too bad that anyone that’s actually buying into his schtick will find out at bell time that Sonnen can’t really deliver on the exciting fight that he’s claiming the disrespectful Silva refuses to deliver himself.
If Silva wins, well Sonnen didn’t really deliver on his promises and if Sonnen wins the fans will be ready to run him out of the arena because it’s going to be on gawd-awful dry humping.
The issue I have with picking Sonnen is his limited avenues to victory. He’ll get taken to the woodshed standing with Silva and I really don’t see him having the submission skills to tap Silva (while also having some pretty large liabilities with his own sub defence), so his 1 path to the belt is to smother/control Silva for 5 rounds.
I’m not sure I like his chances when that means he has to last 25 minutes with a guy that possesses the tools and finishing capabilities that Silva does, regardless of whether we’ve seen them of late.
Yes. Exactly. Now add in how Sonnen looked in round three against Marqhardt, and remember how many times Silva has gone 5 rounds.
If you were looking for a good underdog bet with Sonnen, the train left the station. He was an obvious pick to beat Okami (I stated as much here) and thought he was better than 50/50 against Marqhardt (my prediction of the fight here leading to a flame war afterwards). This ain’t the right fight.
In fairness, Silva has never really gone 25 minutes of real fighting either (and many argued that he was dancing against Maia because he was gassed). The crux of Sonnen’s strategy is to wear down the opponent with relentless takedowns and GnP. So, I mean, if Chael is somehow able to keep this fight going into the third-fifth rounds, he won’t be fighting the same, fresh, cocky first-round Silva.
Sonnen’s act has jumped the shark and it’s still a ways until the fight. Anderson will sub him or TKO within a couple rounds. The only question is will he go for ground and pound or the sub.
Yes, his trash talk peaked long before the fight was even signed. What the hell does he have left to say for the big Countdown show push? I hope for his sake he paces himself better during the fight than he paced himself in trash talking. This was the equivalent of gassing out before round one ended.
And like I said before, people are crazy for letting their hate of Anderson Silva color their perception of the fight. I don’t care for the guy either, but if you think he’s going to get destroyed with ease you are crazy.
The only thing that’s jumped the shark is the idea that Anderson can just show up and do whatever he wants to Sonnen. Chael is going to take him down and smash his face in with elbow after elbow after elbow.
We’ll find out that off his back and against the cage Anderson will be useless and he will get stopped. Sonnen is a horrible match up because he provides a style that is tayler made for a guy who can’s stop takedowns and isn’t great off like Silva is.
The only way that Silva wins this fight is if Sonnen goes to the Florian/Sherk school of idiotic gameplans in title fights, if he fights is typical type of fight he will be Anderson.
WHUT?!
When has Sonnen EVER “smashed” anyone with elbow after elbow that wasn’t on some regional show? Sure he’s grinded some guys out – mainly wrestlers that sucked the high hard one off their back…but let’s get real here.
Oh let’s get real, Anderson’s going to put in another stinker where he dances around, humiliates himself and his opponent and disrespects the game.
Sonnen has nothing to win by taking this fight, because no fight will take place.
This is a very real possibility. Much more real than Sonnen smashing Silva out.
Actually thanks to Sonnen’s style or wrestling there is zero chance of that happening, Silva even begins to dance around and you can expect a double leg takedown asap. Chael is a wrestler that’s what he does he takes people down and imposses himself on them, Anderson on the other hand can’t stop takedowns the math in this fight is simple.
Chael is a greco wrestler and isn’t known for a great double. He imposes size by getting the clinch and pushing dudes around. I don’t think the clinch is where he really wants to be with Silva.
Sonnen can and has “danced” when he finds that the mat isn’t where he wants to be. See: The second Filho fight.
“Chael is a greco wrestler and isn’t known for a great double.”
Haha. Alan you’re reaching here. Chael is known as a greco guy, but He hit doubles non-stop against Miller, Okami, and Marquardt.