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Playing a dangerous game with the planning of Fedor vs. Brett Rogers
By Zach Arnold | September 23, 2009
Update (9/23): The 11/7 show will take place at the Sears Centre at Hoffman Estates (near Chicago). This will be interesting to see how CBS handles the Gus Johnson booking. Johnson was able to work the Kimbo Slice/Seth Petruzelli fight last year because it was near Miami and the next morning he was able to make the game. This time around, the Bears host Arizona (a FOX game) and the only game nearby Chicago would be Indianapolis (hosting Houston) in Week 9. The normal protocol for the announcers and production crews for NFL games is to get into town two days before the game, talk to the players, do prep, and then be ready to make everything happen by Saturday. Would Johnson skip a week of NFL commentating simply for this MMA show?
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Original article – September 15th, 2009
What is it that we’ve heard rumored the last few weeks? That Fedor vs. Rogers would happen, on Showtime, on October 10th, and that it could happen in New Jersey. The other venue mentioned was Minneapolis (Target Center) or St. Paul (Xcel Energy Center) as options that would give Rogers a perceived hometown crowd advantage.
After contacting sources who would have information on the ground about what’s happening, there’s a simple answer — nobody is really sure. One source told me that if an event is happening in New Jersey, no one has heard a word about it. Unless something is decided shortly, then New Jersey may be out of the running here. Which leads us back to the Minneapolis/St. Paul area and the various issues that Strikeforce/Showtime would have in running in the area in the Fall/Winter season. The Xcel Center is home base for the Minnesota Wild NHL hockey team and the Target Center is the home base for the Minnesota Timberwolves NBA basketball team. The 10/10 date is open at both Xcel and Target, but Target has NBA on 10/9 and it would take a fast changeover to give Showtime crews time to prep the building for production.
Open schedule in list form:
- 10/10 – open at both Xcel and Target Center
- 10/31 – open at both Xcel and Target Center
- 11/14 – open at Xcel Center
- 11/21 – open at both Xcel and Target Center
- 11/28 – open at both Xcel and Target Center
- 12/05 – open at Xcel Center
- 12/12 – open at Target Center
- 12/19 – open at both Xcel and Target Center
In other words, unless Strikeforce plans on moving the fight to late November, then I don’t see it happening in Minneapolis/St. Paul. So, if it’s not happening in New Jersey or Minneapolis, then where does Strikeforce run the fight? San Jose Arena (HP Pavilion) would be the obvious answer given the ownership group that Strikeforce is made of.
If there really is an event set for October 10th, then it’s incredibly late to even start promoting the fight on Showtime let alone try to generate any sort of house show audience without giving away massive amount of free tickets, which is why I don’t believe the fight will happen on 10/10. There’s no way, even in San Jose, that Strikeforce could get more than a couple thousand paid for Fedor/Rogers if they try running on 10/10 (no matter how many mailing lists they have).
Topics: Media, MMA, StrikeForce, Zach Arnold | 38 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
If they run that October date with Fedor vs Rogers, it’ll be financial suicide.
They might as well just accept the fact that they will be counter-programmed by the UFC and get on with announcing a date.
November seems logical, there are already two ‘UFC weekends’ that month so there’s less chance of a supprise live UFC card popping up at the last second to counter it.
Still, they’ll probably be going up against a free airing of UFC 104.
It would seem that Strikeforce is going to need to draw a large gate to cover Fedor’s salary.
Also they are going to need time to hype Fedor up if they want to attract new fans. They should be selling this as, “Come see Fedor. The greatest fighter in MMA history. The man UFC and Brock Lesnar are afraid of.” Now the last part is blatantly untrue, but it’s advertising.
Coker being Coker
Mr.Roadblock – Re: Fedor’s salary, it may be lower because of the co-promotion deal.
My opinion on them announcing a “possibly AS SOON AS date” is to keep interest and buzz going. Clearly with your awesome investigative journalism skills, Zach, you eliminated that hype within a few hours. Good work.
I really liked Strikeforce’s last event, or maybe the first fight with Werdums submission left a strong impression, but I like their brand and LOVE Fedor and hope they can make success out of it all!
Mr. Roadblock,
Don’t worry about Strikeforce needing to draw a large gate, after all M-1 will be co-promoting so they’ll eat 1/2 the losses……right?
David,
Where is M1 going to get the money to cover their half of the “co-promotion.”
People keep saying stuff like that when it comes to Fedor’s salary, but where is M1 going to get the money to pay Fedor? If they were rolling in money, they’d be putting on their own events. Any money Fedor gets is going to come from the gate or from SF, some of it may go through M1 first, but it’s all coming from the same place.
As for this event, the Prudential Center Box Office told me on the 8th that there was a Strikeforce event there on Oct 10. They had no details of who was fighting or how much tickets would cost. They said tickets would go on sale next week and there would be more info, but they didn’t seem to be really sure about much.
Great job with the research Zach. I’d say it is just too late now for an Oct 10th event. It’ll be interesting to see when and where it is and of course how the UFC responds.
I really don’t understand the last second things they are trying to pull. It seems like the UFC has a card set up that they can pull out at the last second and will put on that day, so they will have at most a 24 hour head start on promoting the event, and they haven’t shown that they are able to outpromote the UFC before, I don’t see how they’d be able to do it on short notice.
If they are going to pull something off like this, I think they need to do it in San Jose. Forget a hometown advantage for Rogers, the company has a hometown advantage in San Jose. They’ve proved that they are a draw there, and I feel that they have a much better chance of pulling off a short notice card there than anywhere else.
A rundown of a few of the dates:
Oct 10th – Not enough time to promote it.
Oct 31st – Stupid to do it on Halloween
Nov 14th – Against Couture on SpikeTV? No way. And Pacquiao is that night too.
Nov 21st – Never go against Lesnar.
Dec 5th – Against TUF 10, potentiall Kimbo.
Dec 12th – Against Penn/Florian? Not the worst idea.
Dec 19th – Decent date. Only you have to be careful when getting close to X-Mas, people’s minds won’t be on MMA….
A few other points….
1) The UFC can financially take a hit by putting on a card last minute with no gate. Strikeforce cannot afford the same.
2) This shows a COMPLETE LACK OF FAITH by Strikeforce and Showtime. Why sign a guy for $1 Million per fight who ALSO puts a target on your back by the UFC if you don’t have the confidence he can deliver in the ratings or live gate?
Combine this news with the news that Bas Boon is trying to get Overeem out of the Strikeforce contract because he doesn’t want him on a card co-promoted by M-1…. And Strikeforce is already having MAJOR issues within a month of signing Fedor.
Can’t say it is a shock. Wherever Fedor goes, problems happen. It’s almost comical at this point.
Oh, and very good post by Zach Arnold, as always.
They screwed up here and Minnesota does not look like a worthwhile venue at this point. October 10th was the most viable date of the bunch as 45 pointed out.
Now that they blew it for that date either they hope for December (and if you’re doing it in December why not just work for a CBS deal?) or do it somewhere else.
Halloween would be suicide for any sporting event. As someone who works in the Halloween industry, October 24th and October 31st are going to be the biggest Halloween party dates of the year and people won’t be focused on sports.
November 7th would be interesting, but not available in Minneapolis. Maybe they could consider Chicago?
Also Zach I looked into Xcel and November 14th is unavailable because of the High School Volleyball Championships.
I do think 11/28 would be an interesting date. It’s the weekend after Thanksgiving/Black Friday so there’s not much going on during the weekend (since all the major activity happened on the Thurs/Fri before).
Either way it seems they aren’t really thinking this through. As soon as fedor was signed and booked they should have solidified a date and venue immediately. This is a Showtime and potentially CBS contract we’re talking about. Makes me wonder a bit about Mr. Coker.
It does appear that they didn’t think a LOT of things through when they signed on Fedor Emelianenko. They didn’t realize the UFC would be gunning for them. They didn’t realize it would require increased salaries for Fedor’s opponents (see Buentello). They didn’t realize the issues it would cause with M-1. Coker has been completely exposed in the last 2 months as not being up to par with running a national MMA promotion. The only thing is that it is hard to determine how much if this is Showtime’s doing. I have no proof of this, but something tells me somebody at Showtime (not Strikeforce) thought it would be a good idea to sign Fedor, without fully understanding the sport, the history, and the implications of it.
A question I am pondering is:
When, if ever, will the San Jose market dry up for Strikeforce?
So far SF has had solid success in this one market. However, they can’t go to the well too many times. If they do, they will hurt business there. Ohio has been a hotbed for the UFC events, but that is because they put on ONE event there per year, leaving the fans wanting more. If they put on 3 to 4 events there per year, eventually they would see a diminish in attendance and gates.
I think the only reason why Strikeforce has not seen this is because their ticket prices are so low. Fans can afford to do 3 or 4 shows a year. However, with the signing of Fedor, and being forced to pay more for fighters to not lose them to the UFC will require an increase in ticket prices. I would have to think that eventually this will hurt their San Jose business. And what other places have they established to bring in solid gates? Nothing so far.
So going to San Jose might be a viable option for this one event. But eventually they need take the risk and try and establish a few new markets.
I was intrigued by an op piece at BE that argued points for running the Fedor card head-to-head with Lesnar.
I think it’s risky, but I think it’s a great idea that could be a success for SF and Showtime.
Michael Rome is the one who’s idea it was. I think it is a horrible idea.
Forget about rankings. Forget about the UFC Hype Machine. Even forget about the fact that more eyeballs would be on Lesnar on a pay event then Showtime which isn’t. All are valid reasons to not go up against the UFC as it is.
Just think of it visually. You are watching Lesnar vs. Carwin. Two big Heavyweights with lots of muscle. Both very pleasing to the eyes. They LOOK like fighters. Turn the channel and see Fedor vs. Rogers. Two pudgy Heavyweights who don’t even appear to be in great shape. Fedor is small for Heavyweight. Rogers has a gut.
This alone will make Strikeforce look second rate. SF should not be putting Fedor up against Lesnar EVER. Even if they get some wondering eyes changing the channel, the difference visually will not be good to Strikeforce.
“Both very pleasing to the eyes“
You lost me there, my friend.
If they don’t want to go head to head with the UFC, just run a Sunday where there’s a WEC card. Or run the Friday before a UFC.
Yeah, I think whoever was trolling under Zach’s name last week has come back as 45 Huddle.
Going up against a Lesnar PPV is not a bad plan for Strikeforce, considering its few options. Neither is counter-programming the WEC on a Sunday. At least both choices are better than the “mystery date” strategy.
Obviously Strikeforce is at a massive disadvantage in any contest with the UFC. Any path Strikeforce chooses is bound to be risky, and the odds are stacked against Strikeforce in the long run. But Strikeforce does have options in its fight against Zuffa. It might as well take the aggressive path.
Thats not a shocker that 45 huddle would troll under Zach name. Quite pathetic I tell you. I think it would be best if strikeforce did not try to go head to head with Lesnar vs Carwin ppv.
Strikeforce should unquestionably go against Lesnar if they want any shot at surviving.
Any “safe” gameplan is a loser in the long run; they can’t win a straight-up contest with the UFC. They have to gamble, and gamble big, then hope to cash in and gain enough traction to stand toe-to-toe.
Running Fedor against Lesnar would very likely result in a total failure of the show and inevitable decline of their company. However, not running against Lesnar will certainly result in the inevitable decline of their company.
Running Fedor against Lesnar has a slight chance of gaining huge media attention as David against Goliath. If Fedor trashes Rogers and Carwin KOs Lesnar, Strikeforce could get a ton of positive publicity, publicity which would greatly benefit their future shows. That might just be enough to give them a real shot at long-term success.
Every other path will fail.
Of course, I’m hoping they fail, because I think M-1 is a blight on the sport. So I’m glad they probably aren’t going to go against Lesnar.
Strikeforce is sort of in a spot where they need to face down their reality and make a choice. If they choose to do the Lesnar date they have to go all in. Try to get the CBS date. Market it as if you could watch the #1 Heavyweight in the World or you could watch the other guy. Load the card top to bottom.
The benefit is you may peel some eyes away from UFC. Frankly I don’t think Carwin is a draw so for a lot of people that’s not a must see fight.
On the other hand though you’ve now stepped knee deep into the war UFC was readying for. For whatever reason Dana White decided that once SF signed Fedor they were going to war anyway. Coker for his part has tried to keep his group away from that. He’s either going to have to realize that Dana’s going to war either way and take a serious shot at this or he’s going to go the way of other fledgling MMA groups that overstepped their financial bounds and could not keep up with the top dogs.
I want to see SF succeed but like Affliction and EliteXC before them they don’t have the benefit Zuffa did of 10 years of UFC shows building a UFC fanbase up before they even got to reaching out and developing casual fans.
That 10 years helped UFC establish MMA to most people as UFC and not MMA. They were THE brand in the sport before Zuffa ever got there. Now with smart marketing and a decent TV deal behind them, they’ve been able to expand it into the mainstream.
Strikeforce has a lot to overcome and if they’re not willing to step up and play, White will take it to them until they end up collapsing under their own weight.
He’ll just keep running shows against them until the Showtime ratings sink into the toilet and once Showtime is gone, SF will die.
Coker needs to realize he’s in the fight whether he wanted to be or not and start punching back. Otherwise this is going to be a very quick KO on Dana’s part.
At no point have I ever trolled under somebody else’s name here on this site. Not sure why anybody assumes I did.
“Try to get the CBS date.”
That’s going to be impossible. Most networks have their TV schedule booked up through the end of the year. So the 1st Fedor fight will have to be on Showtime.
“Running Fedor against Lesnar has a slight chance of gaining huge media attention as David against Goliath.”
I disagree. It has no chance. The mainstream media barely covers 1 boxing or 1 MMA event as it is. No way they cover two MMA events on the same night.
I think what people are missing is that…. There isn’t much MMA Media to begin with. This isn’t baseball where they can have 15 games going on at once and enough media to cover each one. If the UFC has an event with Brock Lesnar on it, the vast majority of the media will be at that event. ESPN will set up their MMA Live stuff at the UFC’s arena. They will be using UFC fighters as commentators. They will be interviewing UFC fighters.
They might mention Fedor, but that it is highly unlikely they will send another entire crew over to the Strikeforce card to cover it. Not to mention GOOD LUCK getting anybody to travel to MN in mid-November when they could be in Las Vegas.
Then there is the FATIGUE FACTOR. Yes, I’m making up these terms as I go along. But it’s still legit.
The week before there is Couture/Vera and Pacquiao/Cotto. I’m not a big boxing fan, but even this fight gets me excited!! Fight fans will already be slightly tired from such a great weekend of fights. Then there is Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo on Wednesday. Then there is a PPV with Lesnar and Ortiz that Saturday.
Strikeforce and Fedor would absolutely get lost in the shuffle, not to mention from pure fight fatigue, fans won’t be half as interested as they should be.
Lastly, this idea that Carwin is not a draw…. Is hogwash. Lesnar is a draw against anybody. And Carwin has the look, and the countdown show will hype him up to make this a BIG fight. It’s a complete non-factor.
Strikeforce’s two best options were early October and mid-December. They already wasted October by being slow. They have to wait until December, to compete. Their best bet is going up against UFC 107 or going the following week.
I like how your newest angle of how a fighter’s looks and whether or not they’re “pleasing to the eye” being an integral factor as to whether or not they are a major draw. By that logic, Cheick Kongo should have had a Heavyweight title shot by now.
I don’t believe there is any way M-1 is paying for Fedor. M-1 is Fedor. That would mean he’s fighting for free.
I’m sure what they mean by “co-promotion” is Fedor gets a chunk of the gate, M-1 gets some of the foreign broadcasting rights and ancillary rights such as DVD and internet sales.
If you’ve ever seen the movie Goodfellas there’s a real good example of how the mob works in it. They go in with a guy who owns a restaurant and use the restaurants credit to buy all kinds of stuff, then they don’t pay the bill for the goods and sell the stuff on the black market at cheap prices. Then when the business can’t borrow any more money they burn it down. That’s what M-1 is doing. They ran Affliction into the ground and now they’ll do it to Coker.
I think 45’s point is that with short notice if SF tries to promote Fedor (who not many people know) and Rogers and all people are seeing is the fight poster, it looks like two out of shape bums are going to fight. Compare that to Lesnar/Carwin which looks like you’re going to see Godzilla vs Mothra on TV and the casual fan will pick the big monsters.
45-
I want to both agree and disagree with you on different points in this post.
First I totally am on board with the Fatigue Factor concept. There will be a lot of fight fans that won’t want to invest 2-3 weekends in a row on fights.
I think UFC will probably lose some PPV buys that month just because I think there’s a lot of crossover fight fans that would prefer Pacquaio-Cotto over Lesnar-Carwin. Strikeforce is going to have a hard time no matter what month they pick. December people are going to spend their money on The Ultimate show that UFC does every December (not sure if they plan to stack it like they have in past Decembers).
The point I disagree with is the whole “Carwin” has the draw argument you have made. He has the “look” doesn’t mean a whole lot. There’s a lot of UFC fighters that have a look that might seem interesting. That’s not what is going to sell. People haven’t really seen much out of Carwin and he doesn’t have an overly impressive resume.
Lesnar fighting Carwin is like if Pacquaio had not been able to come to terms with Cotto or Mayweather and took an Edwin Valero fight.
For hardcores, Valero would be an awesome fight just because of his incredible KO power. For people that have not seen him, Valero is a no-name and it won’t draw well on PPV.
That to me is what we’re talking about. Lesnar is going to be an overwhelming favorite and most people won’t give Carwin much of a chance. People will not pay money to buy a perceived blowout… even if it is UFC. They will obviously sell the show to hardcore UFC fans and hardcore Lesnar fans but the casual fans they rely on for really big PPV bumps won’t be there just because Lesnar is fighting. They will require an opponent that they know.
Say what you want about Frank Mir but he promoted the hell out of their fight, beat Lesnar and Big Nog prior to that fight and was clearly a bigger star than Carwin will be for this fight. Also that show was buoyed by a pretty good GSP fight as well as a bunch of other names being on the show.
Zheroen: Kongo would have gotten a title shot if he hadn’t lost to Herring. The “he looks like a badass” factor matters, though I wouldn’t put it the same way 45H put it.
Just to give you an idea, there used to be a ton of posts prior to Kongo’s loss to Velasquez about how Kongo would match up with Lesnar, because obviously he’s such a huge badass. In reality, Kongo is like 232 pounds and Lesnar would break him like a toothpick. That doesn’t matter in the marketing game, because people look at Kongo and think he must be a badass.
If Kongo beats Mir he’ll get a title shot.
Well it looks like the date has been decided,11/07/09, and they have plenty of time to promote that it’s on CBS. no venue yet, but showtime will announce that soon.
Absolutely huge for Fedor to be on CBS for Strikeforce’s first network fight. During the heart of football season, marketing to the target audience will be a piece of cake. Regardless of how many people actually end up watching, CBS will get Fedor’s name out there to the casual fan. Great move by Strikeforce.
Ed. — The big issue here is travel for Gus Johnson, since he does NFL games on CBS on Sundays. The 11/7 game involving the Bears is at home… versus Arizona, meaning it’s a FOX game. Will Johnson be able to make the Fedor show if it’s in Chicago and be able to hit another city on a red eye? I don’t know.
The announcer issue is not a big deal. Gus is not the main PBP guy for CBS’s coverage of the NFL. If they really want him to do the Fedor fight, they will make him available.
oh hell yeah!! they might be holding the event in Chicago!!
Strikeforce did it! They are doing the upcoming Vera vs. Couture fight! I couldn’t believe it at first, but it’s true!
Kim Couture vs. Kerry Vera, the wives of said fighters, got signed by Strikeforce for the fall. Why? Beats me.
I’ll do a quick ego boost for calling 11/7, Chicago and CBS in the posts above. Now I’ll deflate a little and say, Damn it! I have my annual horror movie party that Saturday and I rented a hall and have already plunked $325 into it! Chicago is really close. Now I wish I had kept my mouth shut. :-/
Rp
Chuck: The UFC matches up the fighters. Strikeforce. . . matches up their wives.
Sheesh. Talk about looking second-rate.
Robert,
Why’s Your party a week late?
Why not have it leading up to or actually ON Halloween?
Cool to see that there’s someone else here though that’s apparently just as much into my two top interests as I am. Those being, combat sports & genre films.
So, what’s your line up for that night going to be?
How many folks usually show up?
Of course, since it’s your event, there’s nothing saying that you couldn’t schedule a flick that you wouldn’t mind NOT seeing that night from 9 til 11 & then watching the STRIKEFORCE telecast on CBS during that time on a TV that you bring with to the hall.
Just a thought.
Knowing Strikeforce, it will be the main event! Hey, if Jan Nortje vs. Bob Sapp was a main event, then Kerry Vera vs. Kim couture should be a main event, or at least a headliner of some sort.
What’s worse? Vera vs. Couture 2? Or signing Walker? SF is definitely doing some weird stuff.
Signing Walker, by FAR! But the wives fight smells of gimmicky shit, but that COULD be a fight. Or a nice KO victory for Kerry Vera.
But I predict Walker’s first opponent will be Jan Nortje, headline a card in Tacoma, Washington, and Nortje will win via KO/TKO within a minute.