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About the discussion of Brock Lesnar and ‘the changing of the guard’…
By Zach Arnold | November 16, 2008
Both Kevin Iole and Dave Meltzer have articles on Yahoo talking about how earthshattering Brock Lesnar’s win is for the sport of MMA and how Couture’s loss is a ‘changing of the guard.’
I’m sure UFC would love fans to believe this, too.
The fact is that Randy Couture couldn’t get Brock Lesnar to gas himself out in their UFC 91 title fight, and that opened the door for Lesnar to use his considerable 50+-pound weight advantage (and strength advantage) to bulldoze over the 45-year old veteran. Give Lesnar credit for pulling off the win.
However, to proclaim that Lesnar is going to change the game of MMA for a long time to come in the UFC Heavyweight division… arguable.
What I think I know…
Iole will push the UFC line as hard as he can that Lesnar will have ‘legendary battles’ with Cain Velasquez and Shane Carwin, but Lesnar would still likely lose to a lot of the top heavyweights in the business (outside of UFC). I’m not convinced that Lesnar would beat Andrei Arlovski, nor do I think he could beat Josh Barnett or Fedor. (The Barnett scenario would be interesting, as Erik Paulson would have to choose between game-planning with long-time friend Barnett or new champion Lesnar.)
In terms of marketing Lesnar’s next fight, you would have to assume that they are hoping Frank Mir can somehow pull a win against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Lesnar vs. Mir is the much more marketable match-up, but there’s also a bad aspect to it. In UFC re-matches and rubber matches, the fighter who wins the first contest usually has a close-to-70% win ratio in the re-match. I don’t see much of a different outcome for Mir/Lesnar II as I would for Mir/Lesnar I. If Mir beats Nogueira and Lesnar, will everyone be ready to proclaim him as better than Fedor or Barnett? I doubt it.
If we get Lesnar vs. Nogueira, it will be a fun fight to watch but likely a similar outcome in terms of Lesnar just using his brute strength to overpower Nogueira. While a less marketable fight than Mir/Lesnar II, Nogueira/Lesnar would allow UFC to push the ‘changing of the guard’ marketing storyline if Lesnar won.
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 75 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Nogueira can do something that Couture could never do: submit Lesnar from the bottom. Nogueira’s chin is unquestionably better than Randy’s as well. He can take a shot or two from Lesnar, end up on his back, recovery quickly, and submit in any number of ways.
If Nogueira beats Mir on 12/27, we’re talking about Spring ’09 for Nogueira/Lesnar. That will be almost 7 years after the beating Nogueira took from Sapp (August ’02) at Dynamite. It’s been a long seven years for Nogueira in terms of the amount of punishment his body has taken.
There’s no doubting his skills and his heart. However, the human body can only take so much punishment.
I agree, Zach. There’s no doubt that Nogueira has taken considerable damage. You’re also correct in that the longer it takes for this fight to occur, the better for Lesnar.
Nogueira is a bit heavier now and his reflexes look shot at times. However, there is one thing that will not erode and that is his instinct once the fight hits the ground. He could pull off those moves in his sleep.
I doubt he could sweep Lesnar, but I could see him winning by guillotine, kimura, triangle, or armbar.
I think Nogueira could submit Lesnar from the bottom. If Randy could avoid being dominated on his back then Nogueira can use his submission skills to do damage on his back.
I expect Nogueira to beat Mir and Lesnar…Nogueira has very solid stand up…Lesnar taking him down will be a favor to him.
Iole is a great mouthpiece for the UFC, so that talk doesn’t surprise me in the least. Your point is beyond valid, though. I’m not even sure how to properly rank Lesnar. Guy is UFC heavyweight champ, but he beat a guy who is 45, inactive, and frankly in the worst physical shape of his MMA career. And again, I don’t believe he can beat Barnett right now or for a couple years even. Whether or not he can have a lot of entertaining fights with some of their prospects is nice, but its gonna be very difficult to ever know how really good they are.
To use MMA math. Nog has dominated Herring for 3 fights minus about a minute 30 seconds in the third fight. Finishing him twice. On his feet on the ground Nog tools him and does it alot more impressively than Brock. I think Nog can easily outbox Lesner on his feet and as soon as Lesner shoots Nog pulls guard, creates a scramble, either takes Lesners back or sinks in some form of choke. Darce chokes work particularly well on meathead wrestlers.
I found UFC 91 very entertaining. A great buy and worth the parting of my dollars. I also buy most of the UFC PPVs on a montly basis.
Even though I enjoyed the PPV, Lesnar’s victory has once again proven that MMA has a long road to credibility with mainstream audiences, especially when a fighter with less than 5 fights can become champion.
Lesnar’s victory feel like the 1990’s again. A time when joe-blow from a given bar can enter the octagon and become champion.
I know boxing has its fair share of corruption. But I can’t imagine any modern day boxer, with less than 5 fights, earn a title shot with the IBF, WBC & WBA.
Well, at least the UFC gave birth to another white American champion in order to invigorate their white, middle class fan base; a demographic long forgotten by boxing.
Ohh…one more thing, a real changing of the guard happened last week, when Joe Calzaghe (a real white hope) solidified his legacy by beating a very old Roy Jones Jr. And it could happen a couple weeks from now with “Oscar De La Hoya vs Manny Pacquiao”.
I think the PPV had a lot of very expected finishes: I could be wrong, but I think every fighter favored by the sports books came home with a W. We did get to see every single fight though, and any time I can see a PPV and not have to download fights later for viewing, its a good thing.
Why fantasy book Lesnar against Arlovski or Barnett? Neither of those guys will probably fight in the UFC ever again.
I don’t know that he’s fantasy booking it as much as pointing out the obvious fact that most of the good heavyweights with which we could judge Lesnar against aren’t there.
“Lesnar’s victory feel like the 1990’s again. A time when joe-blow from a given bar can enter the octagon and become champion.”
If that’s true, it would really be hype over reality. Lesnar was a NCAA Div. 1 wrestling champ and, has great physical gifts. You don’t see that coming out of bars.
What this shows is that overwhelming physical superiority and, a great wrestling background will give you an advanage over a much smaller fighter, without that physical advantage, even though he’s a much smarter fighter. If Randy were 6’4″ and, 250 lb’s, the advantages wouldn’t have been as great.
The best results for business for the UFC would be to have Brock lose to Nog in a competitive fight, rematch and beat Mir then have a rematch with Nog and even in between Randy can fight Nog.
“Iole is a great mouthpiece for the UFC”
One more reason not to take Iole seriously, other than for what he his, which isn’t an independent journalist.
In that, it’s not that much different from mainstream journalism.
It wasn’t that long ago that Arlovski’s rematch against Sylvia was described by Rob Sayers as “a snorefest,” and the crew criticized Arlovski for fighting Sylvia’s fight by standing and trading.
We’re in an interesting time where you once again have two clear clusters of heavyweights who aren’t fighting one another. The rankings never like that.
We do seem to be getting too far ahead here though. Right now we’ve still got the contender fight at heavyweight, then the uncontested fight, and then we can start talking about the rest of Lesnar’s career, assuming he still has one.
Gonzaga is going to have to fight again before any second title shot (just logistically, I don’t think he wants a nine month freeze out right now), so there’s risk there as well.
Why is it that self-identifying hardcore fans hate uncertainty so much?
Apparently, for this event, the awards were $60,000 each.
Fight of the Night: Aaron Riley and Jorge Gurgel
Knockout of the Night: Jeremy Stephens
Submission of the Night: Dustin Hazelett
I think Lesnar is being overrated. Couture if you think about it isn’t as great at heavyweight as we thought he was. Couture is too undersized to fight someone like Brock. No disrespect to the legend. He beat a Tim Sylvia that wasn’t 100% with a bad back in a unanimous decision. He beat an overrated Gabriel Gonzaga. He’s superb for a 45 year old man but he isn’t as great as fans think he is.
Nogueira and Fedor aren’t strangers to fighting huge heavyweights. They are giant slayers. And if Mir plays it smart and comes into the fight in shape, he could beat Lesnar again.
$4.8 Million Gate. Not a sell-out. The PPV number is really the big thing to discuss.
This sport can always have relative newcomers come in and do very well. Especially at Heavyweight. Fighting is a very natural instinct. It can be learned very quickly. And when a guy has many years of high level wrestling… And who is a fast learner… Will always be able to make a fast transition into the sport. BJ Penn did very much the same thing, only he didn’t win the belt on the first try.
I don’t think that takes away from the credibility of the sport, as long as fans are aware of the long and successful grappling or striking career of that athlete to get to this point. If Lesnar wasn’t an NCAA Wrestling Champion, it sure would look bad this morning.
As for Lesnar against other top fighters:
Frank Mir: Lesnar wins this rematch. He would keep it standing and KO him. Mir does not have the striking ability to do anything.
Antonio Nogueira: Lesnar has a chance, but a slim chance. Nogueira typically eats guys like this up for lunch.
Josh Barnett: Brock Lesnar wins this. I don’t think Barnett can submit a guy of his size on the ground.
Andrei Arlovski: This is a tough fight to call. If Arlovski can keep it standing, he would use his speed to batter Lesnar. If Lesnar takes it to the ground, we would see Arlovski/Nelson.
Fedor Emelianenko: Lesnar would lose right now. 10 fights into his career, he would beat Fedor. Fedor shows some wholes in his game while being on his back. Lesnar would surely put him there. But as of right now, Fedor would still submit him.
Zach,
I think you’re wrong. Lesnar is the next big thing in MMA. After 4 fights, what I saw last night was the emergence of a great martial artist. His poise in the fight showed me a lot.
1. The way he used his knee to hold Randy’s arm when he had side mount and then proceeded to pound him in the face.
2. The way he lifted his knee pass his head to knee Couture in the head in the clinch. That was great athleticism for a big man.
3. The way he knocked out Couture then had the killer instinct to finish him.
4. Two great strikes in two fights that controlled the results of the fights. This is a wrestler after all and not a striker. His striking was very, very impressive.
With this win, there is no doubt that the UFC’s heavyweight division is the top in MMA. With the continued maturation of Cain Valasquez and Shane Carwin, I expect the UFC heavyweight division to be the second most exciting division in the UFC.
Stop the Lesnar hate. After a great win, dominating Randy Couture from begining to end, the best you can come up with is “Lesnar won’t beat Arlovski, Fedor, and Barnett?” Fedor I may agree with, but I have no doubt he’ll destroy Arlovski and Barnett. Give the man his dues.
Re sport credibility: I worry about how the mainstream media is going to spin this after Lesnar beat a 16-9 45 year old, inactive, overrated champion that belongs at 205. I can see it now. “Pro Wrestler beats MMA Superstar. MMA athletes are not real pro athletes like boxers. Their champions are amateurs who lose to 3-1 Pro Wrestlers.” etc.
It would seem that comparing Lesnar to Arlovski, Fedor, and Barnett is non-germane to the argument that Lesnar is a changing of the guard in the UFC, since, you know, none of those other guys fight in the UFC. But don’t let that get in the way of yet another tired anti-Iole rant.
I mean, really? Dude streamrolls Randy Couture and wins the UFC heavyweight title in his fourth pro fight and you don’t think it is a changing of the guard? Seriously? Zach, your site’s biggest strength is also its biggest weakness. You ask questions others don’t, which is usually good. But sometimes you’re just a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian and miss the mark wildly. This is one of those times.
Well, the changing of the guard was kinda forced. Even if Randy won, he’s not got a lot of time left. That leaves them with Noguiera as known top level heavies. Everyone else is a prospect or the MMA equivalent of enhancement talent.
The inevitable downplay of Randy Couture to devalue Lesnar’s accomplishment. It’s the fanboy mentality.
I think Lesnar takes any HW outside the UFC except Fedor. Barnett is horribly overrated. Not horrible, just horribly overrated. It is the up and coming guys in the UFC he has to watch out for.
I said before, Brock is not a “newcomer”, “rookie” or whatever else people call him. Two time NCAA champs are not rookies in MMA. You can’t look at this sport like other sports.
I think Lesnar is good, but given Barnett’s striking acumen, his size, his submission game, etc, I think he’d drown Lesnar. Not to take away from Lesnar’s performance last night, but Barnett did this 6 years ago.
This is a much better Couture then 6 years ago. That is like comparing apples and oranges. Even Couture admitted he went into that fight thinking like a BJJ Submission Specialist, instead of worrying about his greatest strength, his wrestling.
The way Lesnar shrugged off Couture when Couture almost got his back was impressive. The way he took down Couture and slammed him hard to the mat was impressive. The way he made Couture wobbly with an elbow was impressive. The way he knocked him down and pounded him out was impressive. This guy is the real deal. Hardocre fans can spin it any way they want, but Couture has beaten 2 legit fights to win the title. And for the casual fans… at least one’s with any sort of sense, they already understand that a guy that big is a force in the Heavyweight Division, no matter how inexperienced he is.
This is a better Couture than 6 years ago? Can’t say I agree. I decided to look in the search option and even you once mused that 9+ months off and his age weren’t gonna help him any. What changed your opinion?
It doesn’t seem like 7 years ago that I saw Sapp pound Nog, but my hopes now rest on Big Nog to become UFC champ, thus aligning the MMA landscape once again. Its Fedor and Nog always at the top.
Randy had a great first round, but could not dodge Brock’s boxing. I thought Randy did his best — but Brock is Brock.
Couture is more crafty. Against Barnett now, he likely would use the clinch and punish him against the cage. Avoid the ground all together. And win that way.
WHAT IF: Lesnar beats (and stops) Nogueira, then wins a rematch Mir. Is he the #1 Heavyweight in the world? I would think he is.
Couture is more crafty now that against Gonzaga? Based on?
The item about him beating Mir and Nogueira making him #1 is just too much. Never change.
Nog beats Lesnar standing or on the ground.
[…] Arnold reminds everyone that being the top heavyweight in the UFC doesn’t mean you’re the top heavyweight in the […]
45, if Lesnar does all that, it only makes him #2 🙂
I think that the rankings have to show Lesnar somewhere in them now, but where do you put him? Seriously, Sherdog’s rankings have Junior dos Santos, Werdum and Gabriel Gonzaga in them, but don’t have Mir, who is on the deck for a (contrived, yes) title fight. That heavyweight listing is looking pretty contrived right now, with two guys who lost their last fights and don’t have any fights scheduled for the foreseeable future above anyone in UFC aside from Nog.
The WAMMA rankings are just as bad, with Cro Cop still ranked.
I don’t know how good Lesnar is. He’s good enough to manhandle Herring in a three round decision, and he’s large enough and athletic enough and smart enough to prevent Couture from putting him on the fence for five rounds, to show that he could hang on the ground, and to take him out in the standup. Doubtless he’s going to be better before the end of his career, and by current standards, that could be ten years.
Think about that. The guy is just a couple years older than Gonzaga. Dos Santos is significantly younger and could do like Gonzaga and put on more muscle (neither of them is ever going to look like Lesnar, but that man is clearly half steer), and have a hell of a career, maybe.
People act like Mir is somehow washed up, but he’s the same age as Gonzaga. He’s not a part of the old guard, he just started his career early.
Nog is just a bit older than Lesnar.
All these guys have half a decade to a decade (or maybe two for Dos Santos) left on their career barring serious mishap.
The question of whether this is the changing of the guard is almost irrelevant right now, because if it isn’t, then you’ve got three guys fighting for the unified title that somehow fell into the chase and just all happen to be about 15 years younger than Couture, with likely future candidates who are just behind them.
The crazy thing is that these other guys out there, Barnett, Sylvia, Arlovski, Fedor, also fall into this same age bracket. None of them are close to the end of their careers. In five years, all these guys (well, maybe not Sylvia, he’s proven himself somewhat fragile physically) will still be fighting, and at this rate, they’re all going to be fighting in UFC (unless Barnett goes to pro wrestling full time).
The changing of the guard just involves getting rid of Couture. Now we’re on the precipice of the golden age of heavyweights, once Affliction goes away.
Being better than you were six years ago doesn’t preclude you being worse than you were 15 months ago (which I think is true for Couture).
People think Mir is washed up because he was in a motorcycle accident that nearly crippled him and his first three fights after that saw him looking horrible. Beating Hardonk and a 1-0 Lesnar are hardly proof that he’s fully back, and there’s the additional argument that he was never that good to start with.
The rankings are a total mess. If you rank Dos Santos high, what about Joachim Ferrera? Where does one put Kharitonov or Overeem? Overeem will probably obliterate Cro-Cop once and for all soon and continue what has been an impressive streak of wins.
One thing is for certain: If Fedor beats Arlovski, its gonna be hellatough for people to pretend he hasn’t fought anyone. It will be his second consecutive top 5 heavyweight, and he’s already run over the #2 guy in the division twice.
My point is this: Couture is an immense question mark. Fighters age overnight, and at 45, that might be the case. I look at Velasquez and Carwin and I think either could have done what Lesnar did last night. What he’s gained in technical knowledge he very well may have lost in physical attributes.
Barnett poses more threats to Lesnar than Nogueira does. Both technically and mentally. But the problem is they won’t fight each other unless Dana kicks the bully out of the UFC.
In my opinion, Lesnar’s MMA skill was already exposed in his fight with Herring. He just don’t know how to finish a fight at this level. He’s basically a bigger version of Sean Sherk with blue collar attitude or faster version of Tom Erikson with showmanship. I don’t know where Bob Sapp comparison came from….
Yes, clearly failing to finish Couture cemented Lesnar’s status as a grind it out guy who can only go to a decision.
“He doesn’t know how to finish fights”
After he just TKO Randy Couture in the second round.
It is amusing, but not really surprising, to see the UFC crying “poor economy, poor economy” in every press conference even though they openly mocked boxing promoter Bob Arum for doing the same thing.
“If that’s true, it would really be hype over reality. Lesnar was a NCAA Div. 1 wrestling champ and, has great physical gifts. You don’t see that coming out of bars.”
You also failed to point out that Lesnar is a failed NFL prospect, who couldn’t earn a spot on the practice roster with the Minnesota Vikings. Remember, football is a well respected sport where skill and years of experience earns you a spot in the big leagues. A type of respect the UFC is still trying to earn.
Don’t take me wrong, Lesnar deserves to be champion. He fairly beat Couture fair & square. Lesnar is living the American Dream.
But when you start handing out title shots to fighters with less than five fights (to boost PPV buy rates and gate receipts), the credibility of a sport still in its INFANCY remains a question mark. This is equivalent to giving a “Danica Patrick”, a top ride with the Ferrari Formula 1 team.
Nevertheless, Lesnar is a reason reason why the UFC is such a great PROMOTION. Their masters at catering to their lucrative fan base, thus manufacturing American “White Hopes” in order to keep white fans in check, glued to the tube and ordering PPVs. Too bad boxing didn’t figure this formula years ago.
I agree with many people who say that the Heavyweight Division in terms of ranking is a complete mess. There is really no way to do it properly at this point. Eveything feels very circular.
As for the age of the Heavyweights, I don’t put much stock in that. It is just a piece of the puzzle to determine how a fighter will do in the future. I think a guy like Nogueira might not be old, but he has taken so many beating in his career, that I just don’t see him being around in 5 years.
1. F. Emilianenko
2. Nogueira
3. Lesnar
4. Couture
5. Sylvia
6. Arlovski
7. Werdum
8. Gonzaga
9. Mir
10. Velasquez
11. O’Brien
12. Herring
13. Kongo
14. CroCop
15. Barnett
16. A. Emilianenko
17. Kharitanov
18. Overeem
19. Rizzo
20. Monson
21. Hunt
22. Rothwell
24. Nelson
25. A. Silva
(with corrections)
1. F. Emilianenko
2. Nogueira
3. Lesnar
4. Couture
5. Sylvia
6. Arlovski
7. Santos
8. Werdum
9. Gonzaga
10. Mir
11. Velasquez
12. O’Brien
13. Herring
14. Kongo
15. CroCop
16. Barnett
17. A. Emilianenko
18. Kharitanov
19. Overeem
20. Rizzo
21. Monson
22. Hunt
23. Rothwell
24. Nelson
25. A. Silva
The “Big White Hope” (which is kind of what you are referring to) has really no place in today’s fight sports. That is a thing of my Grandparents Generation, where the color of an athletes skin meant something. Young people typically don’t see color as much. It’s kind of like the difference between the McCain & Obama crowds. McCain had all white people. And when voting came in, it was only th 65 & older demographic that he actually won. Obama had a multi-racial crowd, and won all of the rest of the age groups.
The UFC has put Nogueira on TUF. They are talking about putting Maia. They promote Anderson Silva (who speaks basically no English), as the best P4P fighter in the world. Quinton & Rashad are promoted fairly. Color has nothing to do with it. Being exciting does, but that can be across nationalities and languages.
Brock Lesnar beat Heath Herring who many people had in their Top 10 (due to his win over Kongo). Behind Nogueira/Mir and Werdum, he was the most worthy challenger to the title. With Nogueira/Mir already signed for December, they really only put Lesnar over one person to give him a title shot.
I have been reading A LOT of hardcore fans crying this morning. As if this sport has been ruined. I just don’t see that. I have loved this sport for a very long time, and in no way do I feel like this is a downgrade in any form or way. Lesnar is the real deal, and just because he has been in the WWE in the past, doesn’t mean he isn’t a legit fighter who deserves the belt.
LOL @ Mir being in the top 10
Fuck, LOL at Carwin not being on the damn thing.
No changing of the guard here. Lesnar loses by submission to either Frank Mir or Big Nog.