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UFC 63: Analysis and predictions
By Stephan | September 20, 2006
Well UFC 63 is upon us this coming weekend. And as usual here is my fan review of the proposed matchups. This looks to be a very exciting card with a lot of fireworks in store (on paper anyways). Okay, here we go:
Preliminary Fights
Roger Huerta vs Jason Dent (LW)
Jason Dent replaces another Jason (Reinhardt) that was slated to fight Huerta because of a neck injury. Both fighters may be making their UFC debut, but both have much experience as fighters. This a striker vs a submission artist, as Dent has 9 wins by submission. Not knowing much more than that, I will give the edge to the striker here: Huerta by TKO.
Mario Neto vs Eddie Sanchez (HW)
Eddie is a late replacement for Gabriel Gonzaga (I didnt found out why he needed to withdraw). Neto has fought many top rated fighters. In his early career (10 years ago), he lost a decision to Dan Severn, he also lost by punches/submission to Randleman, but has wins all by submissions over Gary Goodridge by submission (I never got the hype about Gary), Travis Fulton and Seth Petruzelli. Eddie Sanchez is making is debut at the UFC, he himself says that he has a strong JiuJitsu, but also loves to hit. I smell an upset in the making here: Sanchez by submission.
Danny Abbadi vs. Jorge Gurgel
This is a fight between two TUF fighters that both need to win to remain active in the UFC. Jorge (TUF2) lost a close decision to Mark Hominick, and Danny Abbadi (TUF3), well we havent seen him since his lost to Kalib Starnes, Danny hasnt impressed me much, except for being nice to Mark Hamill on the TUF show. Gurgel seemed to have more of a drive to win and has more experience, therefore I pick Jorge Gurgel to win by submission (all his wins are by submission).
David Lee vs Tyson Griffin (LW)
Tyson Griffin is making is debut in the UFC, he is a highly touted prospect coming from Caesar Gracie’s camp (they have been active lately). Tyson actually holds a win over Urijah Faber! If you’ve been following KOTC, Faber has been tearing through most opposition. David Lee is also making his debut at the UFC, from what I could find he holds a purple belt in BJJ, and his record shows all his wins (and his one loss) by submission. Regardless, I a picking Griffin by submission, but its really too bad this fight is on the undercard.
Main Card Fights
Jason Lambert vs Rashad Evans (LHW)
Jason Lambert has been on a tear lately, not against any major opponents mind you, but he must be happy to now make the main card of a UFC event. He will have a tough test in Rashad Evans. To Rashad’s credit, he is a great wrestker, with decent stand-up and he just doesnt give up. The problem occurs when (not if) he runs out of gas, his fights usually become very boring. I always pick against him, and he always seem to pull out just enough energy for a decision to his advantage. So this time I do pick Evans by decision.
Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver (LW)
Joe Lauzon is a smart boy who just finished his computer science degree. He will need it, as he has a formidable task ahead of him for his UFC debut: facing the former UFC lighweight champion in Jens Pulver. “Lil Evil” Pulver is an intense fighter, he has won against some serious competitors; including none other than tonite’s headline BJ Penn (by decision). Jens then left the UFC for contractual reasons (sounds familiar? Ya another one). Pulver is actually slated to be a coach in upcoming TUF 5. In the end, Pulver is too well rounded; a great wrestler and he was actually also succesful as a boxer. He should prove to be too much for Lauzon. Pulver by TKO.
Gabe Ruediger vs. Melvin Guillard (LW)
Gabe Ruediger is making his UFC debut. He is a WEC champion, known to have a lot of heart and stamina. He is nicknamed ‘Godzilla’ for winning so many fights by overpowerng his opponents with brutal striking and also good submissions. He did lose by KO to Hermes Franca, but has bounced back since. Melvin Guillard, another TUF fighter with more mouth than game. Guillard is already talking trash about Ruediger, maybe he’s actually scared of him. I’m looking for the newcomer to upset, so ‘Godzilla’ Ruediger by submission here.
Mike Swick vs. David Loiseau (MW)
I’m really looking forward to this one. It is a very good test for both fighters. Is Mike ready for the top tier in that weight class? Mike has been going against better and better fighters. Was Loiseau just lucky with cuts to Tanner to get up there? Mike Swick has super crisp stand-up and super fast hands, Swick has also demonstrated that he can also apply submissions as well. “The Crow” while having lethal elbows and feet, has not demonstrated good technique in his last famous bout against Franklin. Really you say? Look at how he kept on crossing his feet while standing up, thats a big no-no in boxing. But he did demonstrate that he can take a LOT of punishment. Will Mike be able to inflict enough damage to KO Loiseau? Loiseau will also have be ready on the ground. Loiseau’s favorite way of getting out of the ground is by giving his back…Can Swick capitalize on that or on Loiseau not so tight stand-up? Or will it just be a stand-up war? So many questions. I have a real hard time picking this one, it should by TKO, but I dont see Loiseau getting knocked out. After saying all this, I can see Loiseau by KO.
UFC Welterweight Champion Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn (WW)
This is a dream rematch for both, Matt totally wants to avenge his loss to BJ Penn almost 3 years ago. Matt himself says that he did not take BJ seriously at the time. He was insulted at BJ Penn coming up a class to try to take away his belt. And BJ, well he’s just giddy to have a shot at the belt, after losing a slightly controversial decision to GSP (in his mind and Lindlands heads anyways). I’m looking forward to this fight very much, but have no problem picking Matt Hughes as the winner, I’m just not sure if it’ll be by decision or by GNP, probably by GNP, therefore by TKO. Matt will be very prepared this time. I expect him to be slamming BJ right, left and centre. BJ Penn altho super slick and with crazy leg flexibility has the problem of running out of steam/stamina as his fights wear on. BJ’s best chance is standing up to Matt in the first or second round, if it goes longer than that, he’s in trouble. BJ is probably addressing his cardio, but not to the extent that Matt will keep him busy. Remember this is for 5 rounds.
Topics: All Topics, MMA, Stephan Marceau, UFC | 12 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Obviously the author doesnt know who Mario Neto is…..an extremly tough and strong Bjj Black Belt…he might even lose, but it wont be by submission!
From reading his past UFC picks, I don’t think this author knows much of anything…
Man up and make your picks here. Go on record. 🙂
Man tough crowd today! 🙂
Check the record again, at UFC 62, I was 7-2. I actually won the pool at the Dojo, as I changed my mind on one pick (Rob Macdonald).
I enjoyed your viewpoints on the matches and echoed some of your insights on my fight picks for this upcoming UFC card. I couldn’t agree more with your take on Matt Hughes defeating BJ in that match. It’s definitely a dream match of sorts with BJ’s skills constantly posing a threat to anyone, but Hughes is a much better, wiser fighter now and he should definitely close out BJ’s claims to the throne.
Swick vs. Loiseau is a true pick ’em but I’m on the flip side of the coin on this one. Just as you said, Loiseau freely exposes his back with confidence and he defends excellently, but Swick is one determined, smooth and agile fighter who will do his best to devour an opening like that. If he gets that position, I feel he’ll get the submission. Either way its a close match, but I’m going with Swick by submission.
A lot of excellent matchups with some great talent making their debuts in the UFC, this could be potentially the best full fight card of the year for the promotion. Enjoyed the read, good luck on the rest of your picks.
I forgot to put a link for my full picks in my post.
Just in case your interested, you can read my full picks on my blog at http://www.mmaguru.wordpress.com .
tyson by submission? no way. you also failed to mention his win over Bang. it’ll be all GNP. and Hughes by TKO? c’mon…look at the hard time hughes had with Charuto. and he’s (Charouto) no where near as strong as BJ. BJ will keep him working on the ground, though hughes will eek out the decision. proly. who knows? Or hughes will expose something again that he shouldn’t, and BJ will capitalize. hughes by judges dec, or BJ by submission.
For the fights I care about…
I’ll take Gurgel
Swick
Pulver
and…
BJ Penn.
Huerta
Netto
Griffin
Gurgel
Lambert
Pulver
Guillard
Swick…maybe…
Hughes
🙂
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My predictions are up over at my blog: http://howtopreachalousysermon.blogspot.com/
Whoa, that’s some weird formatting there. It’s as if Captain Kirk was reading them…