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UFC 61 Analysis
By Stephan | July 6, 2006
Is it me or is the buzz not as great for this weekend’s UFC as usual? I dont hear or see much of buzz in the fan forums about this event. Maybe we’re getting saturated…UFC will have to be careful with that. Well it looks like its not me after all…I just saw Zach posting about this after I wrote this entry.
Regardless, UFC 61 actually has a good card, it should be a great one to watch.
The undercard:
Welterweight: Drew Fickett Vs. Kurt Pellegrino
“Batman” Pellegrino may be making his debut at UFC, but he’s no slouch. Black Belt Jiu-Jitsu and he’s 9-1 with mostly submission wins. Fickett lately has beaten Koscheck and lost to Burkman and Nick Diaz. Too bad this wont be on the PPV. This should be an easy win for Pellegrino by submission.
Heavyweight: Jeff Monson Vs. Anthony Perosh
Jeff Monson just beat Marcio Cruz in his previous UFC fight, and the UFC said before that fight (and during the fight on commentary) that Monson’s next fight could be for the Heavyweight Title if he were to beat Cruz. The Snowman may be quite disappointed to have a prelim fight instead of a title fight. Anthony Perosh is a black belt Jiu-Jitsu that has nothing to lose. Jeff has already beaten a well known BB in BJJ in ‘Pe De Pano’ Cruz. For that reason I’m picking Jeff to win by decision.
Heavyweight: Gilbert Aldana Vs. Cheick Kongo
Kongo is supposed to be the real Muay Thai deal, this could be a very entertaining stand up fight! Aldana manage to stand up with Buentello for awhile. Its a toss up…TKO…okay for Aldana!
Lightweight: Hermes Franca Vs. Joe Jordan
Franca’s claim to fame is beating Caol Uno over three years ago…He has not seen any success since (in the UFC anyways). Joe’s Jordan record is not much better, many wins, but the only recognizeable names in his fights he lost; Jorge Gurgel, Jens Pulver, Melvin Guillard, Josh Neer (draw actually). Flip the coin again. Decision for…Franca!
The maincard:
Dan Christison Vs. Frank Mir
Frank Mir is on the main card because of his name value and the fact that he’s a former UFC Heavyweight Champion. We may have a passing of the torch here, Christison did well beating Brad Imes in his last fight, but Brad is not at same level as opponents that Frank beat (Tim Sylvia, Wes Sim). Frank also does not want to lose two in a row (his last lost came against Cruz in the first round). I’m looking for Frank here to win, by submission (but dont bet money on my account here!).
Josh Burkman Vs. Josh Neer
I am not sure why this fight is on the main card, I would have rather see the “Snowman” in action. So, Burkman if you remember left TUF 2 after winning his fight against Melvin when he learnt that his arm was broken. Since then he has wins against Drew Fickett and Sam Morgan. Neer has Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard and lost against Fickett. So using some stupid MMA maths (I know – but thats what I see now), Burkman should win…probably by decision.
Yves Edwards Vs. Joe Stevenson
Even though Yves lost against Hominick, dont count him out. Yves is the reason the 155lbs division is back. He is such an exciting fighter that I always look forward to see fight. Joe Stevenson is actually stepping down to make this division, he’ll be a big guy for this division. His Jiu-Jitsu is very good and he has a lot of strength; I still remember him doing that crazy exercise 200 hundred times in TUF2. Both are really experienced, but I give the slight edge to Yves.
Tito Ortiz Vs. Ken Shamrock
I used to be a fan of Ken for the sake of history, however TUF3 showed his true colors. Bad for the sport. Unfortunately, Ken turned out to be lacking class with his students and his peers. Ken laughed every time his team lost a fight. He really didnt seem to care. Shamrock was left with only Ed Herman who looked like a shell of what he was at the onset of the season. Then to top it off he finishes the show mouthing off to Tito?!!?
Dana ended the TUF3 season with a huge verbal shot at Ken saying “I don’t know why he was here”. Well said imo.
Dont discount Ken though, he is crazy at leglocks, if Tito is not in ready shape as he was against Forrest, he could be in trouble. I still think Tito will prevail again though.
Main event:
Tim Sylvia Vs. Andrei Arlovski
UFC has to get beyond simply rematches. But Tim actually requested this rematch to show that his win was not a fluke. He may just prove that it was indeed a fluke. This wont go past the 1st round, but I think Andrei will prevail by TKO.
This is all arm-chair MMA, if all my predictions work out, I’ll attribute it only to luck. These guys know more about each of their own fight that I possibly could. But it still is fun to do! As usual, I cant wait for the UFC to put on another great show!
Topics: Media, MMA, Stephan Marceau, UFC | 6 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Nice breakdown. Every site I’ve seen has different predictions all across the board. It will be interesting to see who turns out to be right. I think thats why this is a good card… a lot of the fights are toss-ups.
All these predictions are nice, but unless you live in Las Vegas don’t bother placing a bet. Online sportsbooks are a scam. I just got ripped off for $402 at http://www.mysportsbook.com I won 2 wagers on the Pride Absolute card. One wager on Cro Cop and the other on Silva. They refuse to pay me and have taken my deposit!!! Now I have to file an incident report at http://www.usdoj.gov/criminal/cybercrime/crimes.html and The Internet Fraud Complaint Center http://www.ic3.gov and my credit card company!
Any luck with Pinnacle Sports?
I’ve had no problems at all dealing with BetEagle.com. Pinnacle is good too.
As for this post…great job! The two best breakdowns I seen was from Dr.J at MMAHQ.com and this one. It’s why I plugged yall…haha.
I can’t access it because I’m at work but bet365.com is a very legitimate UK site which usually offers odds on the top three fights at PPV UFC cards. Sometimes their odds makers are a bit stingy but they badly underestimate underdogs and I made a killing on Silva when he first won the title.
[…] There are plenty of good previews for UFC 61: Dr. J has breakdown and predictions, as does Stephan Marceau of Fight Opinion, Gatties gives us his picks, Meanwhile Whaledog is doing an excellent job exposing the Zuffa myth here and here. […]