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The obligatory “OMG! Fedor vs. Barnett” post
By Zach Arnold | May 21, 2009
See, both fighters have reportedly agreed verbally, but no contracts have been signed. Enough cold water to pour on the fight?
So, if the fight takes place, ponder the following questions:
- Does the fight impact the standing of both men in their profession as far as the outcome goes?
- Over/under the amount paid to watch the fight in Anaheim - 7,000.
- Over/under the PPV buys it draws - 60,000.
- Is this going to be the last Affliction MMA event?
Don’t worry, the fact that I asked these questions means that I am ‘quick to piss on the excitement’. Who used the Original Whizzinator in that guy’s cheerios this morning? *sigh*
Topics: Affliction, MMA, Media, Zach Arnold | | Permalink | Trackback | Share This
1) Only if Barnett beat Fedor. Which I don’t see happening.
2)I’ll say under 7K since it’s common knowledge if you want to see Affliction you can just wait until the day of the show and get a free ticket.
3) Unfortunately, Affliction doesn’t have the means to make people care about Josh Barnett the way they should, so I’ll say over 60K but short of 100K.
4) What else does Affliction have besides this fight? The only main event I’ve heard brought up as an idea is Tito vs Fedor which hell would freeze over if that happened. This is the fight they’ve been hyping since day one so where do they go from here? Add that to a lack of money and I see a grim future for them.
I see the UFC counter programmming on spike they have space on the schedule to do so
1. It that a trick question? If not, the winner either becomes or remains the no. one fighter in the world.
2. Over
3. Over
4. Nobody knows.
Does the fight impact the standing of both men in their profession as far as the outcome goes?
Well, yes. If Fedor wins, its yet another top name he’s dominated in a highly competitive fight. If Barnett wins, he’s the best heavyweight in the world.
Over/under the amount paid to watch the fight in Anaheim - 7,000.
Probably.
Over/under the PPV buys it draws - 60,000.
Everyone seems to agree now that they’ve done 6 figures for both previous PPVs and I’d expect this to be no different. If anything there’s a strong outcry for this fight than the Arlovski one, and they have a guy who speaks english to hype it (even if he’s not really marketable).
this going to be the last Affliction MMA event?
Probably. If so, at least they ran highly entertaining and competitive MMA shows. Count me as one of the people significantly more interested in this fight than Mir/Lesnar II. They’re the WEF/Battlecade of their time and will ultimately be remembered as such, even if they’ve crashed and burned.
1. Absolutely. Both men.
A Fedor win hurts Barnett because right now, he’s the only fighter who stands a chance at beating the #1 guy on the planet. Everyone else has not only been BEATEN by Fedor, but exposed by him. Especially if Fedor submits Barnett – or even wins a decision by dominating on the ground – that nullifies Barnett’s standing as MMA’s best Heavyweight grappler.
And Fedor is the only fighter to have never competed in the UFC that the non-hardcore fans seem to know (through Youtube, message boards or possibly cultural osmosis). If he loses before he gets to the UFC, his mystique is shattered.
2. Over. Maybe 10k-12k.
3. Over. They’ll do maybe 100,000 or so. Not significantly more or less than the previous PPVs.
4. Yes. RIP Affliction. They had two very entertaining shows.
You can’t possibly be saying this with a straight face.
Well, most places have him ranked in the top 3-4. Fedor is #1. If he beats Fedor, only Dana White and a couple people who like Dana White a whole lot won’t be ranking Barnett as #1.
Tito Ortiz will likely go to the UFC. He already so no to Affliction. Strikeforce is still an option, but I can’t see him saying yes to an organization that doesn’t allow elbows. That would kill his game.
With that said, without Ortiz, this is Affliction’s last important fight. They have done really nothing to build anything else up. They have just taken other companies fighters (Pride and UFC) and made some mega fights, while paying them way too much money compared to their earning potential.
When all is said and done, Affliction will only be a tiny tiny blimp on the radar of MMA history. And Tom A. will just come across as a bad promoter with money to throw at big fights.
Fedor should win this one. Winner of that fight is #1 in the world (and I don’t even have Barnett in my Top 5 right not). Winner of Lesnar/Mir is #2 in the world (#3 if Fedor loses, which he won’t).
No, most rankings are done by win-loss records, and even with a loss Fedor still has a better win-loss record than anybody.
And Barnett could beat Fedor but he still isn’t the best fighter in the world. He still got his ass kicked by Cro Cop who Fedor dominated. He still went 1-1 against Nogueira whereas Fedor dominated him every second of the fight twice.
There’s a difference between beating somebody and being better than them. Like nobody said Keith Jardine was a better fighter than Chuck Liddell after he beat him.
This is as far as Fedor can go without getting some ink on a Zuffa contract, so this is good if it does happen. Sure, it won’t break any ground for Affliction and this will probably be the end, but that is what happens. I don’t know if Atencio really imagined even accomplishing what they did accomplish.
I think those estimates are pretty much in line with what they’ll get, which is what it is.
Kid Nate is a worthless sack of dildos, wow.
He has a much different definition of “success” than anybody else on the planet it seems. “Success” means it made money or at the very least got worldwide recognition. Affliction has gotten neither. Sorry, Kid, but critical acclaim doesn’t mean anything.
Also I don’t see how this is going to get more buys than Arlovski did. Andrei is a much bigger star than Josh Barnett is. He’s not a better fighter, but he’s a much bigger name. And nobody was all that happy with what that did.
If Fedor wins he reinforces his status as the world\’s top fighter.
If Barnett wins, first, I eat crow (I have him ranked #17) and second, I\’ll rank Barnett as the #1 HW fighter in the world.
Mark, I think win-loss records are not very meaningful. Quality of competition is far more important. And there is no more definitive way to seize the top spot than to defeat the #1 fighter in battle.
No, most rankings are done by win-loss records, and even with a loss Fedor still has a better win-loss record than anybody.
If you lose, you drop. I don’t care if he’d be 30-2.
And Barnett could beat Fedor but he still isn’t the best fighter in the world.
Given linearity and all that, he would have the best argument for it. A lot better than either Lesnar or Mir, really.
He still went 1-1 against Nogueira whereas Fedor dominated him every second of the fight twice.
Beating Fedor would be the eraser. Look: Every heavyweight worth anything has lost a fight, if not multiple fights. Frank Mir was laid out by Brandon Vera after Cro Cop beat Barnett the third and last time (in a one night tourney). Oddly, Mir’s record is treated as if the Vera loss is no longer relevant. Barnett’s detractors happily remark about the Cro-Cop loss, though.
There’s a difference between beating somebody and being better than them. Like nobody said Keith Jardine was a better fighter than Chuck Liddell after he beat him.
I remember a lot of people doing that. Almost everyone had Jardine above Liddell in the rankings too. That changed again after their next fights.
I can almost promise that it aint gonna happen.
It would definitely be fun to see, barnett would definitely lose, but I’d give barnett a smidge of respect for finally taking his beating like a man.
But it aint gonna happen anyway.
barnett’s gonna weasel out of it with an injury, a contract impasse, something.
I’m not Barnett fan, but if he beats Fedor, he is #1 in the world.
It’s one thing to MAYBE put a guy like Paulo Thiago below Josh Koscheck because he was a complete unknown and the punch could have been a fluke. But typically I would still rank him ahead of Koscheck for one fight and then see what happens after that.
With Barnett, I’m not fan, but he already has name value and at least a Top 10 resume (not Top 5). That means a win over Fedor makes him #1 in the world.
I can’t wait to see the winner of Lesnar/Mir get ranked below Fedor, Arlovski, & Barnett in some rankings. Makes for some great comdey.
1. It’s another feather in Fedor’s fedora if he wins. If Barnett wins I bet he retires and calls himself the best ever. Fedor will win though.
2. They packed that building the first show. If they coheadline with Babalu/Tito or Tito/Vitor II they sell 12,000 tickets.
3. Around 100-150k.
4. Barring a tv deal it will be the end of Affliction running by itself. I could see them teaming with Strikeforce an doing 3-4 shows per year on ppv and calling them “Strikeforce: name of event. Presented by Affliction.” or powered by Affliction.
How would their most anticipated fight do 60k if the last two did over 100k?
It’ll do decent, probably 120k. Super stoked for this, hope it’s in Anaheim.
“I’m not Barnett fan, but if he beats Fedor, he is #1 in the world.”
That seems fair enough. Thats how it works with the UFC guys.
Remember Matt Serra #1 in the world.
But what about when he loses?
You think he’ll drop to #3 or just hover there at #2 with light coming out of his hair?
I think rankings should be linear even in the case of possible flukes (Serra-GSP or Thiago-Koscheck).
Then one of two things happen: either the “flukey” winner keeps winning and thus proves it wasn’t a fluke, or else, he loses soon after and is exposed.
If he loses and is exposed as a fluke, the rankings will seem skewed but only temporarily.
Over time, the rankings will self-correct as the flukester keeps losing and dropping below those who beat him, and as other figters beat people ranked higher than him and push him further down the charts.
If you beat the undisputed linear champions (Fedor, Evans, GSP etc) you automatically become the MAN/linear champion of the world.
It doesn’t matter where you are ranked before hand and even if you don’t deserve the title shot, you get credit for beating the true champion. Serra deserved it after beating GSP.
Barnett vs Fedor is a great fight, personally I would label it an MMA superfight but at the very least its a high level heavyweight championship fight (sorry Brock, but you are a paper champ).
It will be competitive, both fighters are similar but the problem is that Fedor is better at every aspect of the game. Barnett knows this and thats why he has been avoiding the fight, credit to him if he finally mans up. I don’t see how he can get the KO, sub or outwork Fedor.
MMA fans are to fixated on the “orgs”, too much of the pro-wrestling mentality that is holding back the sport. Sure its sad that a promoter which will have put on three great PPVs is going out of business and it raises the question if anyone but ZUFFA can succeed. However, who really cares? They are putting on a very compelling fight, Afflictions financial future won’t have any effect on me enjoying the show. Credit to them for giving Fedor the opportunity to fight three elite heavyweights instead of freak shows.
Put it this way - Barnett is retarded if he tries to stand with Fedor and it took Barnett 13+ minutes on the ground to put away Yvel(!!!). I wish him all the best.
So I guess you all believed in 1990 that Buster Douglas was a better boxer than Mike Tyson?
And I’m not a “Barnett detractor” I’m a fan actually. I’m just saying there’s no way he’s actually better than Fedor, even if he did win in August. And to me what you did over the course of your career means more than what you did in your last fight.
I hate rankings, but would go for the old MMAWeekly way of judging based on win-loss records than knee-jerk reactions over what they did in their last fight. Especially in a sport with so many upsets as MMA.
Buster Douglas won the heavyweight title. No one argues that. Holding that distinction means you’re the best heavyweight in the world. Same goes for any other sport: Hey, maybe the Giants would have lost 9 out of ten times to the Patriots, but they won the one time it really counted.
Fedor is the true heavyweight champion in MMA. Beat him, you’re the champ. The other belts are meaningless, regardless of how many people watch the fights.
BTW, can we stop talking about the “unpredictability” of MMA? 3 divisions in MMA have dominant champions. Everyone likes to point to Serra/GSP I, but those people aren’t so hot about discussing Cote/Silva.
I suppose I can see where you’re coming from, but your viewpoint seems a bit myopic to me.
The guy who is “#1″ implies to me that he is overall, the best in his weight class. That doesn’t mean that he can beat everyone, necessarily, just that he can beat more of the top guys than the others in his weight class.
I don’t think one loss changes this, especially to a fighter like Barnett, who I don’t think is in the Top 5, maybe not even in the Top 10.
If you want to consider the “#1″ title as changing hands like a belt, I can’t argue with that. But, then that means we’re not talking about the same thing.
I don’t think you pissed on the excitement. Those are honest questions.
If the fight comes off, MMA fans should really be grateful that Affliction was able to put together three Fedor fights where he fought guys in the top 5 or top 10. I think most likely it will be there last show.
I’ll buy a ticket, just like I did the first two times as well. Live shows are so much easier to watch and enjoy in a ring.
“Zach Arnold is quick to piss on the excitement:”
Geeks.
Whether Fedor wins or loses this fight means nothing because outside of the hardcore, mma board posting super fans, and fighters no one and I mean NO ONE outside of that small group of people even knows who Fedor is or has even heard of him.
I know people on the internets hate it, but to the general (MMA buyrate producing) public, MMA is UFC. So until Fedor fights in the UFC, whether he beat Barnett or not, whether Affliction lives or dies, Fedor will never be known or respected (as he should be) by the general (ppv/ticket/merchandise buying) public, until he fights in the UFC.
It’s meaningless to say “Barnett beat Fedor but Fedor is better”. So what does “better” mean if not the ability to prevail in a fight? And I’ll add, it should be the PROVEN ability to prevail in a fight, not a hypothetical ability.
People dis rankings because they use subjective systems based on their opinions of who is “better” in some abstract sense. If people just take rankings as measurments of ACTUAL ACCOMPLISHMENT - i.e. beating other ranked fighters - it starts to make a lot more sense.
I mean, who knows who is “better” in some cosmic sense - and who cares? All that matters is who won the fight.
Well, the heavyweight titles that Douglas won meant something. Fedor has the MMA equivalent of the WBO heavyweight title.
No, Fedor has the equivalent of the Ring Magazine title… he is recognized as the true heavyweight champion of MMA.
1. Absolutely
2. Under
3. Under
4. yes
I’ve got Barnett rated as #3, below Nog and, bizarrely, above Cro Cop (who has been slip slip sliding down the charts, but the picture in UFC is full of relatively new fighters…what are you going to do).
Probably not a shock given that they all were part of the Pride game, and had a lot of heads handed them on plates, in addition to having fought one another (fighting high ranked opponents will bump you higher with a win and drop you less in a loss in TS) frequently.
I don’t know if beating Fedor would pump Barnett’s rating high enough to be the number one or even number two HW on my charts. It would be a monumental achievement though.
If nothing else, Affliction did manage to put together three Fedor fights that were not going to happen in any other promotion given the demands of his managers.
I’d probably wait for HDNet to replay this one, though. The cards haven’t generally had a lot of depth for me. I guess I’d have to see the final card to decide. This one fight isn’t enough to motivate me to pay.
Jardine’s no where near elite, not even close. He’s a better fighter than 95% of the guys out there, but in the top 5%, he’s a blip, and most of the fighters that anyone cares about are in that top 5%. Barnett does not fit that same description.
45, I can guarantee you that if I ran numbers after Lesnar/Mir, they would still be ranked below Barnett, Nog, and Fedor. The UFC heavyweights are (with one exception), rated well below the “gang of three” former Pride guys. As noted above, that’s in part because of the way that Pride was run, but that’s how it stands.
Dismissing organizations is just silly in my book. Just who do you think is going to pay the fighters and make these events happen without promotions? Fedor and Barnett aren’t going to be barnstorming State Fairs this summer, unless they’re paid really well to do it.
Just going to play a little devil’s advocate here.
1. Fedor has never competed in the UFC. We have seen so many great fighters look unstoppable outside of the UFC, and then look horrible inside the octagon. Octagon Jitters are real.
2. When is the last time he has fought in a cage?
3. Fedor’s biggest blemish might not be a Loss, but will be the fact that he never fought in the UFC, with the true spotlight on him. Some will say Pride is the equivalent, but many fighters would disagree (and have said so).
It’s like the great players of the Negro Leagues, either never playing in the MLB or only getting a chance near the end of their career. There is always that question mark surrounding what could have been.
To say Fedor is the #1 Heavyweight, without question… when he has never fought on the biggest stage, kind of adds some questions to that equation.
“Whether Fedor wins or loses this fight means nothing because outside of the hardcore, mma board posting super fans, and fighters no one and I mean NO ONE outside of that small group of people even knows who Fedor is or has even heard of him.”
This is true. Lesnar/Mir 2 is the big Heavyweight Fight of the summer in the eyes of the fans.
“45, I can guarantee you that if I ran numbers after Lesnar/Mir, they would still be ranked below Barnett, Nog, and Fedor.”
So Mir beats Nogueira in their last fight, and is still ranked below. That’s illogical. It actually makes no sense.
I love it how the UFC basically has a 4-Man Tournament that had Couture & Nogueira in it. At the start of it, anybody would have said the winner is #2 in the world. But because Lesnar/Mir each won their first round bouts, all of a sudden everybody’s rankings go down in the UFC.
Typical hardcore MMA fanbase. Always putting down UFC fighters, while artificially inflating the rankings of non-UFC fighters, despite direct results to the contrary.
Single fights do not determine the sum of a career, 45.
It’s the same reason that the pennant was debased when MLB went to playoffs. Is it more exciting because something’s on the line? Sure, but the value of that objective is diminished because it wasn’t earned over the course of the entire season.
Of course, in baseball it wasn’t quite AS debased as it has been in other sports. Conference championships are totally meaningless in any other major sport at this point, because to get them you just win the game that qualifies you to compete in the real championship.
I may be old fashioned, but to me, the shield is always going to be more important than the cup.
And all of that doesn’t mean that I’m not looking forward to Lesnar vs Mir. I know that I’m more interested in that fight than I am in Fedor vs Barnett, and I know that a hell of a lot of other people feel the same way.
That’s totally separate from the results of a synthetic rating system, however. I find significant interest in that beyond who’s holding what belt, in part because analyzing how synthetics work helps me understand more about their limitations and reveal interesting fighters that I would never have paid attention to otherwise.
Hey Zach,
Wrote that post in a hurry, used poor word choice. Didn’t mean to offend. Must have subconsciously been responding to your phrase “pour cold water”.
I wouldn’t even try and compare the baseball system and the MMA system. In baseball, winning 60% of the games is great.
Against the current crop of Top 10 fighters (using Sherdog’s just for the sake of discussion), Nogueira is 2-4. Mir is 3-0. We all know Mir has had some losses when coming back from his surgery, but he seems to be back to old form (if not better). And Mir has a MUCH better history against current Top talent then Nogueira does.
So whether you look at it as a single fight (Mir vs. Nogueira) or against the current Top 10, Mir is above Nogueira.
1. Only for Barnett
2. Over
3. At least 100k like the other two
4. I thoroughly enjoyed both shows and look forward to purchasing future PPV from them.
Damm this post just dont have sens.
Im from Mexico and i know Fedor is the best, he change the way to train MMA, he beat 4 UFC champions. USA guys stop being puppets from UFC. There is more than Joe Rogan, TUF and that Dana.
please.
You say Fedor is not the best.
The best is for you:
Anderson Silva
George St.Pierre
Lyoto Machida
Shane Carwin
Brock Lesnar
etc….. and the list is gonna continue for all the time.
Fedor is the best, and a real example of a fighter. ¿Or you dont like he es Russian? I dont understand why you dont accept it. Fedor is the best.
UFC jitters? Fighting in front of 40,000 live fans and with over 10 million watching on network TV doesn’t count as significant enough?
The beauty of the linear system is its simplicity (as long as the line isn’t broken and the champion doesn’t face low ranking bums for the rest of his career, eg. the light heavyweight title in boxing: Michalczewski to Gonzalez to Erdei).
You beat the man to be the man. In 2003 that man/undisputed champion was Nogueira and Fedor beat him to become the new champion. Since then he has beat every top heavyweight outside if Barnett. Sure Mir, Brock and Couture are now relevant but they didn’t matter up untill 2008 and 2007 for Randy.
We are suppose to be the hardcore, educated fan base right? So gives a dam if some TUF noobs don’t recognize Fedor? He is fighting the best and making millions. Brand names don’t matter.
Buster Douglas was the heavyweight champion after beating Tyson, it didn’t matter what belt he had because he beat the MAN. He lost it in his first defense against Holyfield. Boxing hasn’t had an undisputed heavyweight champion since Lewis retired, but we are getting somewhat closer.
“UFC jitters? Fighting in front of 40,000 live fans and with over 10 million watching on network TV doesn’t count as significant enough?”
Happened to Rampage, and he even admitted it. Kang looked gassed after the 1st round in his UFC debut. Shogun looked horrible. It happens to guys who have fought in front of huge Japanese crowds and then come into the UFC.
And if people are really going on this linear championship thing…
Heavyweight: Fedor Emelianenko
Light Heavyweight: Rashad Evans
Middleweight: Damian Maia
Welterweight: Georges St. Pierre
Lightweight: Gray Maynard… Some people might say Satoru Kitaoka
As you can see, it doesn’t always work. It’s got two of them wrong. And if you want to go down to Featherweight and Bantamweight, neither Brown or Torres are the linear champions, as those would have come out of Shooto. And almost everybody agrees that both are #1 in the world right now. So that is 3 out of 7 using the linear system. FAIL!!
Linear works to a degree, but sometimes when a shift in a division happens, rankings need to be adjusted.
1. Absolutely. The winner of this fight is, most certainly, the best heavyweight outside of the UFC and most likely the best heavyweight in the world.
2. Likely under 7,000.
3. Over 60,000 buys.
4. No.
Now to address something. Since before Day of Reckoning, Zach, you have gone above and beyond out of your way to slander and criticize Affliction beyond a point that you even remotely criticize the UFC. You approach Affliction’s cards with this cold, calculated, business-minded perspective but ultimately all it does is take away from the two things that nobody can deny Affliction has done with it’s two cards.
1. Book some of the most interesting fights and best cards in all of MMA.
2. Pay fighters very well.
Is that the greatest business model for long term success? Maybe not. But I, for one, am grateful that not only have I gotten to see some fantastic fights but the fighters I appreciate have been paid very well for those fights.
Ultimately, why the negativity? What has Affliction done so terribly wrong that they deserve to be criticized by virtually everyone to such a degree that it makes it near impossible for them to build ANY momentum whatsoever? Let’s say Affliction has been spending far more than they’ve been making. And let’s say that ends up putting them out of business after this card. In three cards Affliction will have put on more important fights for the overall sport of MMA than IFL, EliteXC, and Strikeforce combined in three cards and paid their fighters much better.
Affliction needs to keep the undercard costs low
1. If Fedor loses, he is done, at least in USA. He also should feed the whole M-1 Global and support Red Devil, that’s why he said that he started to feel rich not long ago(???? ???? ??????, ?? ? ??????? ??? ?? ??????, ?? ? ???????? ?????? ??????).
2. Yeah, about 7000-8000 people should pay for their tickets.
3. We will never know the real numbers of PPV buys.
4. I don’t think this is gonna be the last Affliction event. Maybe it will take some time to buid-up another great card, but I’m sure they will return. Maybe Fedor-Overeem? Just imagine:
Affliction VI: Banned(2008)
Affliction VII: Day of Reckoning(2009)
Affliction VIII: Return of the Jedi(2009)
And after 15 years great comeback:
Original Affliction trilogy:
Affliction Episode I: Andrei The Phantom Menace(2025)
Affliction II: Attack of the Pro-Wrestlers(2026)
Affliction III: Revenge of the Fedor(2028)
And if you want to go down to Featherweight and Bantamweight, neither Brown or Torres are the linear champions, as those would have come out of Shooto.
Unless you had vacancies or departures. Guess what? That happened.
“Single fights do not determine the sum of a career, 45.”
Then you should have said your ranking system was for “lifetime achievement”. As a system that determines the fighters’ current rankings, putting Nog above Mir makes absolutely no sense and disproves the accuracy of your system.
Does the fight impact the standing of both men in their profession as far as the outcome goes?
No, the people who worship non-UFC fighters will rank them one way the people who are pro-UFC will rank them another.
Over/under the amount paid to watch the fight in Anaheim-10,000 sounds about right.
Over/under the PPV buys it draws-
85,000 it should do about the same as the other 2 PPV’s have but i’m sure Atencio will claim a ridiculous number as usual.
Is this going to be the last Affliction MMA event?-Probably but if it’s not it’ll be another 6 months before Affliction 4 so it won’t matter.
“Unless you had vacancies or departures. Guess what? That happened.”
In a linear system, wouldn’t the vacant title go to the next best Shooto fighter? You can’t have a linearly ranked #16 American fighter bump ahead of the other 14 because the #1 guy leaves. He would have to be #2, which is almost impossible because of the lack of cross fighting between Japanese and US fighters.
If the line is broken then the next consensus #1 is named (if there is one). That includes Anderson, Torres and Faber (before Brown beat him).
You get the distinction if you beat enough top guys.
Just to add, 45 Huddle you are right, the linear system is not perfect because the fighter might be inactive, defend against poor opponents, retire etc. You do have to make adjustments.
But we are going off track here, the whole point was that Barnett would become the champ if he beats Fedor, that is because Fedor is without a doubt the MMA heavyweight champion of the world. If you disagree with that then you are just being dishonest or ignorant of the sport. The linear thing is simple when you have a dominant champion.
“If the line is broken then the next consensus #1 is named (if there is one). That includes Anderson, Torres and Faber (before Brown beat him).”
That’s adding subjectivity to a linear, results based system. Surely you can see how this invalidates the entire premise behind a linear ranking.
One, a fighter can now move up or down in the ranks based on a subjective assessment of his skill. How is that possible in a linear system?
Second, you’ve just admitted that a “lower” ranked fighter is better than those above him, without having to win a single a fight or have others lose a fight. If the ranking admits that it isn’t accurate, what’s the point? It’s meaningless. Its existence is a novelty.
The only way to keep a linear system consistent is to give the #1 slot to the guy who was #2. If you don’t, the system is self-defeating and utterly worthless. And in the FW and BW divisions, the #2 would be in Shooto, because no American-based fighter ever fought his way up the established FW and BW ranks in Japan.
In a linear system, wouldn’t the vacant title go to the next best Shooto fighter?
Why would it be promotion specific? Pequeno left with the title to Hero’s and then on to the WEC: Linearity broken for Shooto at 143. At 132, their champ retired. The top two 135lb fighters in the world at that point were in the WEC. I mean, no one sat around after Lennox Lewis retired, no one sat down and said, “well, who is Main Events next best heavyweight?”
And in the FW and BW divisions, the #2 would be in Shooto, because no American-based fighter ever fought his way up the established FW and BW ranks in Japan.
What about having the established talent from Shooto come west? Certainly you’ve heard of Yoshiro Maeda? Mizugaki? Pequeno Noguiera? Akitoshi Tamura? Besides, I don’t even think there’s clarity in Japan these days. If you ask me, Mishma has a better claim to the bantamweight title than Ueda.
Nogueira has dropped multiple rankings due to a perceived change in his abilities. So has Chuck Liddell. I agree with it for Liddell, not Nogueira, as one bad fight should not make a fighter go from #2 in the world to #5, as he has in most rankings.
As for the linear #1…. Seems like nobody is actually putting a list together and just speculating:
FEATHERWEIGHT: Alexandre Nogueira, Tetsuo Katsuta, Alexandre Nogueira, Hiroyuki Abe, Alexandre Nogueira… Then it gets fishy. He fought at Lightweight, but really his first loss at Featherweight again was to Jose Aldo…. Which makes Aldo the linear Featherweight Champion.
BANTAMWEIGHT: Mamoru, Masahiro Oishi, Ryota Matsune… His last fight was in 2006. Which means the linear belt went to Akitoshi Hokazono. Who then retired himself. then it goes to Masakatsu Ueda, not Torres. I believe Ueda was ranked higher then Torres at the time of each winning the belt (which happened within a month of each other).
Linear works to a degree. However, once in a while, things need to be changed, and people’s opinion’s must enter the equation. Hence why rankings become pointless.
Give me UFC Rankings. Maybe Strikeforce Rankings once they get more shows under them. Everything else (including P4P lists) are pointless. Which is why the UFC Championships are just that much more important. They aren’t opinion based. They include all the guys in one organization, and it’s the man who beat the man who beat the man. Very simplistic.
I believe Ueda was ranked higher then Torres at the time of each winning the belt (which happened within a month of each other).
Not so fast. Linearity is based off #1 and #2 fighting one another, not #1 and #6 or #7 fighting one another, and in the case of Torres and Ueda, Torres was generally rated above him in most ranking systems. Shooto doesn’t have any special claim to the title.
As for the example of Very Little Noguiera, if you abandon a weight class and go elsewhere for years, again, linearity broken. By that point you had numerous 145 lb belts in various organizations and some legitimate contenders both within Shooto and outside of it. For the most part, they’ve not fought, and there was legit criticism about Faber getting claimancy to the top spot in the world. I’d argue the spot is up for grabs, and like heavyweight boxing, while there’s clearly one guy on top of the division, he’s not the “true” champion.
You pinpoint many of the problems with the linear system.
Give me all the best fighters in one organization with a fighter’s union, and all these ranking issues become pointless.
Its a nice pipe dream, but its not gonna happpen. Even Zuffa runs two promotions.
Also, I can see where there’s arguments about the bantams and featherweights, but they’re not terribly applicable to the heavyweights. The UFC lost all their top heavyweight talent to PRIDE and Fedor emerged to be the unquestioned champion. He’s not been beaten and he’s drubbed pretty much every top contender the time period of 1999 to the present. There’s some new contenders emerging in the UFC, and maybe in a year or two the cry could go out again that he needs to prove himself against them, but the argument that Lesnar is a more valuable win at this moment than Barnett doesn’t hold water.
“I don’t know if beating Fedor would pump Barnett’s rating high enough to be the number one or even number two HW on my charts. It would be a monumental achievement though.”
I’m reading a lot of interesting arguments about ranking, linear ranking, etc. but what doesn’t get discussed enough is the nature and specifics of the victory.
If Barnett beats Fedor by a narrow decision, does that affect his ranking differently than if he submitted him with an armbar 2 minutes into the fight?
And to make things more complicated, some of these specifics are highly subjective themselves. Almost to the point where it makes certain fighters nearly impossible to accurately rank.
Forrest Griffin is an excellent example of this.
He got annihilated by Kieth Jardine, and beaten decisively by Rashad Evans. Yet he hold victories against Shogun and Rampage. But the Rampage victory was a close decision, and Shogun was recovering from a series of surgeries when he lost to Griffin, and his cardio was nowhere near where it was in PRIDE.
Anyone else see the UFC Countdown show last night? Seems to me like the production team for the GSP/BJ thing stayed on to continue with these shows as well. Very well put together.
Also, interesting was that if I’m not mistaken, they spent at least double the amount of time on Lyoto as they did profiling Rashad. Not sure if they’re just backing the leading horse or if it’s a concerted effort to perhaps market to TMA guys who — with the exception of judokas — have pretty much ignored MMA.
Joachim Hansen is the hardest guy to rank in MMA.
I have not seen the countdown show yet, it’s on my DVR. However, I’ve noticed in the past that they have concentrated on certain fighters more then other’s. I believe it’s because Rashad Evan’s story has already been told. Machida’s story really hasn’t been. So it make sense to put more time into him.
If you’re doing single promotions, then yes you should rank by who has the most significant wins or losses.
But if you’re doing a “in all of MMA” ranking system, you’re just playing a guessing game going with any other method besides win-loss record solely.
For all we know Carwin could beat Fedor, or Lesnar could beat Barnett. There’s no way of knowing, so you’re just giving your personal opinions until they have a chance to fight.
In addition to them not being able to fight, there’s also different rules in various MMA promotions that significantly change games up. Like for example I think Aoki would look terrible in the UFC with elbows in play. But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t beat Sean Sherk under DREAM rules. And Fedor would probably be in deep shit like Cro Cop was adjusting to the Octagon, but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t beat Randy Couture in a ring.
If you’re doing single promotions, then yes you should rank by who has the most significant wins or losses.
But if you’re doing a “in all of MMA” ranking system, you’re just playing a guessing game going with any other method besides win-loss record solely.
This is seemingly fine, until…
For all we know Carwin could beat Fedor, or Lesnar could beat Barnett. There’s no way of knowing, so you’re just giving your personal opinions until they have a chance to fight.
By the same token, Carwin could beat either Mir or Lesnar, we just have no way of currently knowing. Being promoted by the same person at the same time doesn’t necessarily mean we will ever learn the answer either, since any number of events could occur to prevent it. Nor are rankings intended to be based solely on believed potential.
So again, I return to a common refrain: the best heavyweights in the world went to PRIDE because of money. When the smoke cleared, singular champions emerged, Fedor being the final one. He’s never taken a year off or left the division. He is not required to enter the UFC to fight, particularly if superior competitors can be coaxed from it or elsewhere to fight him. You may argue that Lesnar could beat him…hey, maybe he could! But if Fedor wins, is it a better win than Barnett? I’d bet we’d hear a lot about how it was no big deal that he beat a now 3-2 former pro wrestler with only a couple years of experience and only one top level win against a guy who’s almost AARP app age.
The major problem is….
The UFC is a completely different fighting environment. And desite what rankings say, Fedor is beating these guys who are not really the #1 contenders.
Arlovski was not the #1 Heavyweight in the UFC when he left. Sylvia was not the #1 Heavyweight in the UFC when he left. Barnett was not even the #2 Heavyweight in Pride when the company went under. And none of these guys higher ranked competition before getting their shots at Fedor.
So one could argue, and have a valid argument, that Fedor is constantly fighting good competition, but he is getting them when they are not the true #1 contenders.
That is complete different then Anderson Silva who fought Rich Franklin twice. Once when Franklin was champion. Next time when he was the #1 contender. Or Henderson when he was a legit #1 contender. Or even GSP who has fought Hughes, Fitch, & Alves…. All of who were #1 contenders at the time.
In a perfect scenario, Fedor should be fighting Frank Mir right now. Mir took over that spot as the rightful #2 fighter in the world.
And after Fedor beats Barnett, he will need to be fighting in the UFC to really fight his first true #1 contender since Mirko Filipovic in 2005.
See the point? No other champion has avoided fighting the NEXT best challenger for 4 years like Fedor has. He has beaten Top 10 guys, but has not fought the best when they were at their best.
The UFC is a completely different fighting environment. And desite what rankings say, Fedor is beating these guys who are not really the #1 contenders.
The UFC being “different” is irrelevant and untestable. As long as top contenders come to him, he can fight when and where he chooses within the realm of MMA. As is, he fights under unified rules with drug testing in a major commission state. I remember that criticism.
As for these guys not being the real #1 contender, take it up with every major rankings system. Apparently people with bigger soapboxes and more legitimacy don’t carry the 45 Huddle line. Oh well.
Arlovski wasn’t a top heavyweight because the “froze” him out. He won his last three fights (including one to a guy that spanked their current champ) and prior to that had only lost in title fights.
Sylvia had one recent loss on his docket and had been one of the longest serving stalwarts of the division. He left after killing off one of their rising stars and for bigger paydays.
It’s quite clear that either of them could still be one of the top guys in the division had they stayed there. Your argument on that angle is crap.
Name the last real #1 Contender Fedor has fought against. I’ll give you a hint. It’s almost 4 years ago.
That’s not an angle….
“As for these guys not being the real #1 contender, take it up with every major rankings system. Apparently people with bigger soapboxes and more legitimacy don’t carry the 45 Huddle line. Oh well.”
Using your linear system, Arlovski & Sylvia weren’t Top 5. And neither will Barnett be either.
Using your linear system, Arlovski & Sylvia weren’t Top 5. And neither will Barnett be either.
Champions are linear. Every other spot isn’t. What, you had Randy Couture the #2 heavyweight in the world till Lesnar beat him?
“Name the last real #1 Contender Fedor has fought against. I’ll give you a hint. It’s almost 4 years ago.”
According to what standard? Given the “depth” of the UFC’s HW division AA would have EASILY [quadruple underlined and bolded] been a “#1 contender” for the UFC strap (and likely beat anyone holding the belt right now) had he not left on his 3-0 streak. Sylvia probably THE #1 contender following his win over Vera - but he left too.
Give it up.
*Correction - following his win over Vera and loss to Big Nog. Given the propensity for rematches, the fact that he was far ahead on the cards before losing AND that UFC’s “#1 contenders” were a 2-1 pro wrestler and the guy that beat the 2-1 pro wrestler (based entirely off the steam of beating said 2-1 pro wrestler).
Given the propensity for rematches, the fact that he was far ahead on the cards before losing AND that UFC’s “#1 contenders” were a 2-1 pro wrestler and the guy that beat the 2-1 pro wrestler (based entirely off the steam of beating said 2-1 pro wrestler).
The best part Gaijin? Sylvia and Arlovski left the UFC and Sylvia got his fight with Fedor even before Lesner was actually 2-1. Until he beat Herring, he was still a guy who only beat some Korean tomato can.
And I don’t say it to take away from Mir or Lesnar who proved to be worthy of the title shot in the end. But to pretend “they weren’t #1 contender material - bc DW said so” when that’s who the “worthy alternatives” were is the totally typical 45 sycophantic company line bullsh*t.
The Gaijin,
I don’t think you really understood what I said, so I will give a real easy example:
1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Nogueira
3. Randy Couture
4. Tim Sylvia
5. Top UFC Challenger (Could have been Andrei Arlovski)
There was more to the rankings at this time, but I just put those names in there to show that Arlovski wasn’t even the Top guy in the UFC when he left. There were multiple others ahead of him. And Sylvia wasn’t the top guy either as Randy Couture has beaten him.
So when Fedor beat these guys, he wasn’t fighting them when they were on top. He beat the Arlovski who was post two losses to Sylvia. He beat the Sylvia that had lost to Couture and Noguiera. I’ll give you a real life example.
Georges St. Pierre beats Matt Hughes in their 2nd fight, and he becomes the #1 Welterweight in the world. When Thiago Alves beats Hughes at UFC 85, he is still beating a top contender, but Hughes wasn’t the same invincible guy people thought he was.
Another example, Floyd Mayweather laughed at people calling Manny the #1 P4P guy. His basic point is that they each beat the same guys, and Mayweather did it first and did it when they were better (which is true).
Since his 2005 fight with Mirko Filipovic, he has not fought a top guy who was a true sitting #1 contender. He has beaten a lot of solid Top 10 guys, but all guys who had already fallen from being at the top of the UFC.
It would be like him fighting Randy Couture now instead of when of when Couture was the UFC Champion. Couture isn’t even the best in the UFC right now. Same with Arlovski. He wasn’t the best in the UFC when he left, yet somehow beating two IFL Guys got him to the top of the dilussional rankings by fanboy sights, and everybody goes crazy.
Fedor needs to be fighting Frank Mir. That is the true #1 contender. I know people laugh at that, but logically, it makes the most sense.
I know what you will be saying now. That Fedor has to sign with the UFC in order to be fighting guy from the organization. And that is kind of the point. He really needs to be, because fighting in Affliction, he is getting the guys who are still Top 10, but have been beaten before coming over to fight him.
45 vs. Conceicao for the last Wamma ring IMO.
“Arlovski was not the #1 Heavyweight in the UFC when he left.”
You sure about that chief?
“You sure about that chief?”
He wasn’t holding the belt?!
How do you mean?
It’s true that a linear system can’t be perfect, and that adjustments must be made to account for irregularities, and that a degree of subjectivity enters into making these adjustments. So the question is not one of having a perfect system, but of minimizing subjectivity and coming up with a consensus on addressing irregularities.
For example, there is some consensus that there should be a cut off point in time before which fights no longer “count”. Some say 2 years, some say 3, and that is a subjective decision at the end of the day. But the principle is not very controversial. It makes sense that fighters evolve over time, and decline over time. Having a cut-off point introduces this momentum to the rankings.
There also needs to be a mechanism to address loops. Here again, subjectivity must enter the picture. I think it makes sense to privilege a more recent fight over an older one, as a way to resolve these loops. In other words, the winner of the latest fight comes out on top of the trio. Like all adjustments, this one isn’t perfect, but couldn’t some consensus be reached around this principle or a similar one?
Another complication to linear rankings, which has been discussed above, is the problem of parallel promotions with little or no crossover. Here again, subjectivity inevitably enters the picture. I think it is acceptable to disagree on this point, and to agree to disagree. Whenever a crossover does occur, even if just one fight with fighters from both parallel structures, that gives insight to the correct ranking and gives you something to organize your ranks around. It decreases the subjectivity involved. And the more crossover occurs, the more objectivity enters the rankings.
Some divisions, especially the lower weights, are so segregated it makes ranking very difficult. I would say each division from Lightweight on down suffers from this dearth of crossover. The Welterweight, Light Heavyweight, and to a lesser extent, the Middleweight divisions are held by consensus to be dominated by the UFC. The Heavyweight division is not monopolized by any one promotion, but benefits from a lot of crossover over the last couple of years. This makes Heavyweight one of the most rankable divisions in MMA using a logical, linear system. Below is my attempt at a thorough logical ranking of the division.
1. F. Emilianenko
2. Mir
3. Nogueira
4. Lesnar
5. Couture
6. Sylvia
7. Arlovski
8. Dos Santos
9. Werdum
10. Carwin
11. Gonzaga
12. Velasquez
13. Herring
14. Kongo
15. CroCop
16. Barnett
17. A. Emilianenko
18. Monson
19. Kharitanov
20. Overeem
Notes:
* Fedor is the undisputed champion. Nobody has dominated the division as thoroughly as he has. He holds wins against #3 Nogueira (x3), #6 Sylvia, #7 Arlovski, #13 Herring and #15 CroCop
* Nogueira is one crossover point. In addition to holding UFC wins over #6 Sylvia and #13 Herring, he also holds PRIDE wins over #15 CroCop and #16 Barnett. Mir\’s win over Nogueira earns him the #2 spot
* Dos Santos\’s high ranking is a potential irregularity. I say \”potential\” because time will tell, and his ranking might prove justified. But it seems intuitively odd for fighters with short records to rise suddenly due to a single win over a top-ranked opponent. I believe this level of potential irregularity is tolerable in the short run, and the wrinkles are ironed out by the system over time. In other words, if Dos Santos\’s knockout of Werdum was a fluke, he will steadily plummet in the rankings, as did Houston Alexander and Sokoudjou, for example. For the mystery to vanish, Dos Santos must not be matched against cans like Struve, but must be tested against top caliber competition to see if he belongs
* The other major crossover point is CroCop. His poor performance in the UFC is the main reason for ranking the UFC (and former UFC) elite decisively above the former PRIDE elite (with the exception of Fedor). CroCop holds wins over #16 Barnett and #17 Aleks, and losses to UFC\’s #11 Gonzaga and #14 Kongo
Match-making is the precursor to rankings. Most of the irregularities in linear rankings are the result of illogical match-making, due to lack of fighter availability, injury, marketing-driven match-making, or other factors that influence match-making.
In short, ranking perversions happen when an underdog gets the upset in a mismatch. A case in point is Dos Santos - Werdum. Whenever a top fighter is matched against a can with a puncher’s chance, the system is vulnerable to irregularity.
All the limitation will always exist, as well they should (such as promotional interests), so match-making will never be fully logical. However it is useful to come up with principles on what constitutes objective match-making, just to keep in mind.
1. The point of match-making is to determine the best fighter.
2. To be the champion, beat the champion
3. A fighter coming off a win should be matched against an opponent ranked higher than himself. This gives him the opportunity to rise in the ranks
4. A fighter coming off a loss should be matched against an opponent ranked lower than himself. This allows him to plummet if he loses again, or tread water if he wins
5. Fighters should face opponents who are not too distant from them in the rankings. This helps ensure fair, competitive fights and resolves apparent irregularities
6. It’s good to strive toward giving a tournament-like structure to determining title shots, or at least “#1 contender” fights, rather than giving fighters title shots out of the blue (like Anderson Silva’s last 2 opponents). For example, I would have liked to see Arlovski vs Barnett to determine Fedor’s challenger
7. It should take, at minimum, 2 victories over Top 10 opponents (and no losses between them) to be considered the #1 contender
Based on these principles, Velasquez-Kongo is an excellent match-up. The winner should be one more fight away from a title shot, and that fight should be against a higher-ranked opponent, such as the loser of Mir-Lesnar or the loser of Nogueira-Couture. Defeating Cain or Cheick, then beating any one of those four HW giants, earns any man a title shot
Dos Santos should be matched against Carwin to determine the #1 contender for the HW belt. It would be difficult to deny Dos Santos the shot given decisive victories over Shane and Fabricio. Alternatively, Dos Santos could be exposed, and an undefeated Carwin given the title shot.
There was more to the rankings at this time, but I just put those names in there to show that Arlovski wasn’t even the Top guy in the UFC when he left. There were multiple others ahead of him. And Sylvia wasn’t the top guy either as Randy Couture has beaten him.
And then Randy left and you campaigned that he drop in the rankings accordingly. And Sylvia dropped because after losing to a fight he dominated most of against Nog, he was wiped out by Fedor. Two of them dropped appreciably, one guy kept winning. What, you think Arlovski should have been penalized for Sylvia’s failures and dropped too?
In any case, your talk about some sort of linear #2 flies out the window because you removed Randy from that to slot in Noguiera over inactivity. Figure in that Noguiera lost to a guy that’s wasn’t in the top ten at the time prior to Arlovski/Fedor, and then suddenly Arlovski is the #2 contender. Ta da!
So Alan, don’t you see - at the time he fought Sylvia he should have been facing his true #1 contender in Nog (oh wait, he’s destroyed him 2x already). And when he fought AA he really should have been fighting Frank Mir.
Give me a break - so basically your giant gripe is that he’s not facing top talent because he hasn’t fought Mir? If Barnett fought Mir it would be even money. He tried his damnedest to fight Couture when Couture was the top dog in the UFC, UFC wouldn’t allow it to happen (can’t fault them for that), and I saw NOTHING from Couture that makes me think he wouldn’t get fucking wrecked if they fought.
I basically just have to give up with guys like 45, because they continually try to rearrange the chess pieces to attempt to make their failing argument work.
e.g. “He needs to fight fighter X, Y, Z to prove he’s fighting ‘top guys’” –> Destroys X, Y, Z —> “Well X, Y, Z aren’t even top guys, they were run out of the UFC, he needs to fight A, B, C to prove he’s fighting ‘top guys’.” Lather, rinse, repeat as desired.
I tried creating Top 10 Heavyweight ranking by going all the way back to pre-2000 and compiling a list of 15 top HWs and comparing their records up to 2000 and ranking them from there.
Then from there, I created a point system which I can’t really recall right now but something along the lines of a win against the #1 ranked fighter gains you 10 points. Losing to him, though, only drops you 1 point.
The crazy thing about it is that my rankings ended up like what most look like anyway. Fedor is #1, Mir is #2, Arlovski was #3 or #4, etc.
1. A Fedor win will solidify his dominance of the heavyweight division even more. A Barnett win would be huge but I don’t see it happening.
2. Not sure but it won’t be any more than the Fedor-Arlovski card. Probably less.
3. See number 2
4. Depends on whether this card will come to fruition. If it happens, it’ll be the last card. I don’t see a fourth Affliction event. I’m shocked there’s talk of a third actually.
1. If Fedor wins, this simply means another former UFC champion (during their caveman era) has fallen to the Russian. Hardcore fans will get on their knees and worship the Russian, while most mainstream fans will scratch their head, wondering where this Russian came from (assuming they actually know about the event).
2. Nope! Unlike the UFC, Affliction does not leverage Free TV or mainstream media outlets to promote the event. At least the fans got to see Arvloski on Free Network TV (via Elite XC) before his fight with Fedor. But we all know that Card was probably a financial failure.
3. Re-read point no. 3. In addition, FEDOR has a history of being a PPV bust (Bodog, Pride USA & now Affliction). Don’t expect anything to change.
4. Unless Affliction uses their MMA card as a loss leader to promote their fashion line as a LOSS LEADER, I see a dismal future for them in the MMA fight biz. You can’t run a successful MMA promotion by having a fight card every 4 to 6 months, especially without any effective promotion or any effective means to attract a larger audience, (other than Hardcore MMA fans).
The lineal title philosophy is all and good to an extent, but the BIGGEST knock against the lineal philosophy? Well, I will just give you an example……..Shannon Briggs was considered the lineal heavyweight champ after he beat George Foreman, and since that Ring Magazine discontinued their title policy during Holyfield’s title reign in 1990. Ring Magazine didn’t bring it back until during Lennox Lewis’ title reign in I believe 2002.
So who wants to recognize Briggs as a former undisputed world heavyweight champ? Not me! He had the WBO belt a few years ago, but that is it! Nothing more!
IceMuncher,
I’ve described the rating system (which then produces the ranking) briefly elsewhere on the site, and I make no claims as to its “accuracy,” only that it is systematic.
Linear is also systematic. 45’s rankings probably have some sort of method to them, but I suspect there’s a fair share of madness as well (as with all opinion rankings)
Any systematic rating that claims to be focused on recent performance is going to be lacking too much information to be valuable IMHO. Talking about just the fights in the last 12 months is kind of ridiculous unless you’re allowing for the ranking of those fighters coming into those 12 months, and then you’re talking about a lifetime system anyway, you’re just calling it something else.