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Ben Henderson remains a 5-to-2 favorite over Clay Guida
By Zach Arnold | November 11, 2011
Clay Guida is very confident (ask Showdown Joe) about his chances of beating Ben Henderson. Extremely confident. Ben Henderson is also very confident, so much so that he pulled the Razor Ramon toothpick routine during his media session.
The folks at MMA Mania are discussing the rumor of the Guida/Henderson winner facing Frankie Edgar for the UFC Lightweight title. That fight would be the main event of the UFC Japan 2012 show. I’ll leave that item for you to comment on.
If you forgot who is fighting on Saturday’s card, here you go. All the talk about Guida/Henderson is why the fight isn’t airing on Fox TV. Even if it doesn’t air on television Saturday night, Dana White says he will find a way to get that fight on television ASAP. Speaking of TV, Comcast Sportsnet Bay Area will have a post-fight UFC 119 show (UFC 119 is in San Jose at HP Pavilion) w/ Josh Thomson. That’s a first for the network.
Courtesy of our friends at FightHubTV.com, here are some fighters making their predictions on how the Cain Velasquez/JDS fight will turn out. My prediction — Cain wins by decision after five rounds. I’m feeling slightly confident in this pick given that Dana White didn’t shoot down the fact that Cain got hurt a little bit during training.
A look at the rest of the odds for Saturday’s UFC fights:
- Cain Velasquez is a -175 favorite (nearly 9 to 5) over Junior dos Santos (+150). Initially when the lines opened, Cain was around a -140 favorite. The cash is headed in his direction.
- Dustin Poirier is a -300 favorite (3 to 1) over Pablo Garza (+250).
- Aaron Rosa is a -150 favorite (3 to 2) over Matt Lucas.
- Mike Pierce is a -350 favorite (7 to 2) over Paul Bradley.
- Mackens Semerzier (-120) and Robert Peralta (-110) are neck-and-neck.
- Damarques Johnson is a -270 favorite (14 to 5) over Clay Harvison.
- Kid Yamamoto is a -360 favorite (18 to 5) over Darren Uyenoyama. Kid has been busy training in San Diego for this fight.
- Ricardo Lamas is a -140 favorite (7 to 5) over Cub Swanson.
- Cole Escovedo is a -260 favorite (13 to 5) over Bruce Leeroy.
Media note: First, Jon Anik leaves ESPN to work for the UFC & FX. Now, Larry Pepe will do work for Fox Sports handling pre-fight and post-fight duties on radio.
If you’re interested in non-UFC fights on Saturday, there’s always Bellator on MTV2 & Spike.com. Here’s what’s on tap for that event at Casino Rama in Ontario:
- Welterweight tournament finals: Ben Saunders is a -140 favorite (7 to 5) over Douglas Lima.
- Middleweight tournament finals: Alexander Shlemenko is a -260 favorite (13 to 5) over Vitor Vianna.
- Light Heavyeights: Roger Hollett is a -350 favorite (5 to 2) over John Hawk.
- Featherweights: Alexandre Bezerra is a -400 favorite (4 to 1) over Doug Evans.
- Chris Horodecki is a -400 favorite (4 to 1) over Mike Corey.
The company’s new tagline is ‘where title shots are earned, not given.’ Joe Warren will defend his Featherweight title against Pat Curran soon.
Topics: Bellator, Canada, Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 13 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
[…] Fight Opinion breaks down the betting odds for tomorrow’s UFC on Fox. […]
Larry Pepe has parlayed that career of being a guy who knows very little practically about MMA into a dude doing radio interviews quite nicely. I still ask: Does he set up the cycles for the Ferittas and Dana or something?
Definitely excited for the fights Saturday night even if it means skipping all around the TV to watch.
My J2S Bendo parlay is cash money
[…] Henderson remains a 5-to-2 favorite over Clay Guida | Fight Opinion Clay Guida is very confident (ask Showdown Joe) about his chances of beating Ben Henderson. […]
30 Second UFC on FOX ads went for $100,000.
Hopefully the fight delivers. Never know with Heavyweights. That division is such a gamble. The two fighters will likely bring it because they know the stakes are so high….. But it could always end in a minute…
The good news for fight fans is that we know J2S has a good chin; he got hit clean by Carwin and Nelson and never moved backwards. The bad news for fight fans is that Cain doesn’t have a particularly stout beard. He does have a lot of guts though. It will be a great fight while it lasts. I hope it lasts all 5 rounds but I don’t think Cain can hold up that long given his chin and Junior’s striking acumen.
I am going to watch the Bendo v Guida fight on slow motion and savor every moment of what should be a 1-sided blowout.
BTW I like Zach’s smarmy line about how the money is moving in Cain’s direction to support his prediction of Cain winning. It reminds me of Zach claiming the only people who bet on Diaz vs BJ were stupid fans and that the “knowledgeable people” were all taking BJ. That didn’t turn out well.
Zach, pray tell who are the gentlemen of quality taking in this fight? Clearly they know more than the rest of us.
Huh?
You’re trying to connect dots where none were connected.
I had picked Cain by decision when the fight was first announced and I did earlier this week when I was asked by Low Kick in a group roundtable. Betting lines had nothing to do to influence or back my pick. Furthermore, I did not know that Cain had gotten injured during training. That, more than any reason, is something of substantive knowledge with value.
I was referring more to the way you handled betting on Diaz v Penn, when you made it seem that you knew every “insider” and that they were all picking Penn and that only fanboys would pick Diaz.
If Cain/JDS had gone down earlier this year like planned I would probably pick Cain, but now – after an injury, surgery, and a year long layoff – it’s hard to not pick Dos Santos, a fighter whose resume and performances have been just as impressive as Cain’s. Now throw in the a rumors of a Velasquez injury in training and it’s impossible not tot pick Junior.
While I expect Cain and JDS to deliver an entertaining fight, to me since it was announced the real draw is Bendo vs. Guida that has FOTY all over it. To me Guida won’t fall for the same things that downed Jim Miller in his fight with Bendo.
Guida will use his wrestling and cardio to outpace and outwork Bendo and unless he gets caught in Henderson’s guillotine he should win a close decision.
The worst case scenario for Dana tomorrow is that JDS vs. Cain ends in a quick KO and Bendo and Guida light it up and steal the show then he and Fox will both have egg on their faces on Sunday.
You are the only person I have ever met in person or online who enjoys watching Clay Guida fights.
[…] warriros. Check out our own odds guide for Saturday’s fights and for the Bellator action on MTV2. Speaking of […]