Friend of our site


MMA Headlines


UFC HP


Bleacher Report


MMA Fighting


MMA Torch


MMA Weekly


Sherdog (News)


Sherdog (Articles)


Liver Kick


MMA Junkie


MMA Mania


MMA Ratings


Rating Fights


Yahoo MMA Blog


MMA Betting


Search this site



Latest Articles


News Corner


MMA Rising


Audio Corner


Oddscast


Sherdog Radio


Video Corner


Fight Hub


Special thanks to...

Link Rolodex

Site Index


To access our list of posting topics and archives, click here.

Friend of our site


Buy and sell MMA photos at MMA Prints

Site feedback


Fox Sports: "Zach Arnold's Fight Opinion site is one of the best spots on the Web for thought-provoking MMA pieces."

« | Home | »

What should the realistic expectations for UFC on Fox 1 be?

By Zach Arnold | November 7, 2011

Print Friendly and PDF


Over 265,000 have watched this promotional video clip…

Saturday night’s the big night on Fox network. Fox has pushed the Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos fight hard during both college and football games on their various platforms. It’s a Heavyweight title fight with two guys that we want to see fight, but are we going to see the champion at 100%? Recovering from a torn rotator cuff is no joke and Velasquez hasn’t fought in over a year. He’ll be fighting JDS in the same building that he beat Brock Lesnar in last year. However, Cain has largely been off the radar in terms of making a splash in the media. Yes, there have been conference calls a plenty and a few pressers (including one on Wednesday at the Nokia Theatre), but I wouldn’t exactly call his media presence ‘magnetic’ by any stretch of the imagination.

Kelvin Hunt (Pro MMA Now): Will UFC on Fox ratings be a true barometer for future shows?

So, what kind of rating should the fight draw? Elite XC drew, what, 3.6 million viewers on CBS? I would say that the over/under rating here for the show would be a 4, given that it’s UFC, it’s a heavyweight title fight, and people will be in ‘fight fan mode’ because Manny Pacquiao is fighting late Saturday night. The only real network competition the UFC show faces is ABC airing Stanford vs. Oregon, a game that has big BCS implications and also is headlined by ‘The Next Peyton Manning’ in Andrew Luck versus an Oregon team that always scores a lot of points. There will be a smattering of other college football games on ESPN, ESPN2, and various regional outlets… but the competition, overall, is not particularly stiff for UFC in terms of whether or not they can appeal to the masses.

Sergio Non (USA Today): Junior dos Santos says that the world is ready for mainstream MMA fights

My biggest interest for this show is to see just how much Fox will be helping out UFC in terms of adding additional heft to the production values. If this show looks like the same ‘ol vanilla cookie-cutter Zuffa production, I’ll be disappointed. Fox likes to give bells & whistles with big sporting events, so I’m expecting at least better video promos & backstage access. I’d be interesting in some new camera shots as well.

As for Fox choosing to air one fight on the card… I think it’s a mistake. The network should have allowed UFC to put Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson on as an actual advertised TV fight. Two reasons: first, it’s going to be a good fight with actual meaning for the Lightweight division. Second, it would be the perfect “TV opener” for people who forgot about the broadcast or are watching for the first time to get pumped in preparation for the Heavyweight title bout.

I do not have high expectations in regards to this event being the kind of ‘statement show’ that will propel UFC to super-duper business heights. I think it’s a good benchmark for the organization and hopefully a much bigger preview of things to come under the Fox banner. I’m still not sure what to make of the Jon Anik hiring, even if he’s relocating to Las Vegas and working closely with Zuffa.

As for Fox Deportes, Fuel TV, so on and so forth… I don’t get those channels and I’m not paying extra money to go out of my way to get them. If Fox was smart, they’d allocate Fuel and some of their smaller TV networks as digital subchannels so that you can pick them up with rabbit ears (similar to what NBC does in bigger markets with Universal Sports). Fox Deportes will be airing the preliminary fights from Saturday night’s Anaheim Pond event. As far as UFC’s continued push of Cain Velasquez to the Mexican market, I don’t see it panning out. He does appeal to English-speaking Mexican-American households in the States but not to the public at large in Mexico (right now).

Nate Wilcox (SB Nation): Will UFC ever produce its own Smokin’ Joe Frazier?

I want to hear from you in the comments section in regards to what kind of rating you think the show will draw, how you think the HW title fight will pan out, and what positive/negative influences you see Fox adding to the UFC network broadcast (if any). I hope the network doesn’t overload us with Jay Glazer 24/7…

Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 41 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

41 Responses to “What should the realistic expectations for UFC on Fox 1 be?”

  1. Alan Conceicao says:

    My initial thought was that it would do a middling rating, but they’ve hyped the hell out of this show. Still, with all that hype, does it do better than EXC’s peak rating? That, to me, is the real question. After all, EXC’s ratings/viewership for a show had to be averaged over 2+ hours (since they often ran late) whereas this is one fight and one hour. My guess is they do a similar sort of rating as Kimbo Slice did in his first time out against Thompson when that fight was airing: peak is going to be 5.5 million viewers, probably an average of 5 million for the entire show because I expect the fight to be pretty lengthy. I’m not sure that its a raging success to only meet the Kimbo number nor am I very sure that they can repeat it, but that’s my guess.

  2. David m says:

    What are they going to do if there is a first round ko? Is that it? Are they going to show taped fights? Lord knows Clay Guida is a terrible fighter and awful to watch, but 1) he is popular amongst the white trash demo, 2) the fight might actually be good because Ben is going to thrash him.

    • Alan Conceicao says:

      They aren’t going to show any more fights. They’ll do post fight analysis and show commercials. Look at it this way: They will probably spend 15 minutes in the lead up to the fight between ring introductions, walkouts, the TV opening, some talking heads babble, and a quick rundown of the fight itself. The fight itself may take 30 seconds or it may take 29 minutes (plus any time that would need to be added in due to low blows, fouls, MD checks, etc). There will be post fight interviews, some reaction from the desk, and some commercials in between each of those segments. One hour will go by comfortably.

      What is the real story here is Fox dictating the structure of the program. Remember when the UFC got a 90 million dollar a year contract guaranteed for 7 years and they got everything they wanted in terms of control? So why can’t they air a prelim they supposedly wanted to show?

      • Steve4192 says:

        “Remember when the UFC got a 90 million dollar a year contract guaranteed for 7 years and they got everything they wanted in terms of control? So why can’t they air a prelim they supposedly wanted to show?”

        Because this show is not in that contract?

        This is an ad-hoc show thrown together to help FOX gauge what their ad rates should be when the real contract kicks in. They probably felt that limiting it to a single data point, with that data point being a HW title fight, was the best way to maximize those rates.

      • 45 Huddle says:

        If it wasn’t for the SpikeTV contract, the prelims would be airing on FUEL TV.

        This is a one time issue because they want to do a show before the contract starts to figure out how to sell this to advertisers.

        Moving forward we are likely to see 2 full hour shows on FOX that have the potential to go over the timeslot.

      • Alan Conceicao says:

        They signed a contract with the UFC for $90 mil a year and they aren’t sure what they’ll charge for ad rates? C’mon, really now.

        • Steve4192 says:

          I’m sure they have a preliminary number they are planning on, but that number is nothing more then a guesstimate based on the lightly promoted EliteXC & Strikeforce shows on CBS. This show is to help them gather better data on how the UFC brand will work on FOX when heavily promoted.

        • 45 Huddle says:

          I’m sure they did the underwriting and know they can get back the $90 Million based on the combined FOX, FX, and FuelTV Programming.

          But to maximize the profits, a test run is certainly needed. The UFC has never been on Network TV before. It has never been given a big promotional push like this.

          While there is room for growth, absolutely nobody (including White or FOX) knows what that true ceiling is.

      • RST says:

        Wow.

        I wonder if 5 minutes of fighting and 55 minutes of commercials and analysis is going to satisfy any new viewers.

        I’ve only seen Tyson get away with that.

        And there’s a very real possibility that it will end quick between 2 HW KO artists in the biggest fight of their careers.

        I wonder how set in stone that “only 1 fight” ultimatum is.

        Was it dana who said that?

        Because he has the ability to change his mind whenever he feels like it, if he ever even meant it at all.

    • Steve4192 says:

      “Clay Guida is a terrible fighter and awful to watch”

      Are you trolling here?

      Guida is neither terrible nor awful to watch.

      ‘Terrible’ fighters do go 9-5 in the UFC and beat guys Josh Thomson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, and Takanori Gomi. ‘Awful to watch’ fighters don’t win multiple FOTY awards (versus Huerta in 2007, versus Sanchez in 2009) or six fight/submission OTN bonus checks from Zuffa.

      • Alan Conceicao says:

        Clay Guida hate comes from the same place as “Every fight was a finish; who cares who fought? Great show.”

      • david m says:

        I am not trolling, but rather I have eyes. I don’t give fighters that many chances to impress; I will admit that Guida does have some wins, but his fights against Diaz, Danzig, and Pettis were such non-sporting, horrible to watch affairs that I really have no desire ever to see him fight unless I know he is going to get knocked unconscious. He is not a particularly good fighter; he basically is like a very poor man’s Fitch with long hair and even worse standup.

        • 45 Huddle says:

          Guida won’t beat Henderson so it doesn’t matter.

          I love watching Guida’s entrances. But he is the post boy for stalling in the UFC. His fights borderline on embarrassing for the sport.

        • EJ says:

          Come on 45 I expect that kind of ignorance from other posters here not you. Guida is going to beat Henderson who all of a sudden went from being underated to vastly overated with a win over Jim Miller. Guida is going to be the most over fighter in that arena, because the people enjoy him and the way he fights the only thing embarrasing is how much hate he gets from suppossed mma fans.

        • Aunt Jemima says:

          Bendo is gonna mop the foor with Clay Guida.Guida seems a genuinely nice guy but he’s cannon fodder in this matchup.

        • edub says:

          You guys are really overrating both guys here: Guida because of his win against an overhyped Anthony Pettis, and Bendo because of a win over a completely overrated Jim Miller.

          They’re both good, and on good streaks with a win here. But neither poses a risk to the top guys in the division (Edgar, Maynard, Melendez, Alvarez). Hell, they’d both probably get tapped by Aoki.

      • RST says:

        He’s not terrible.

        He’s just not great.

        He’ll never hold a belt except through luck.

        He can be tolerable to watch though, just because he’s always jumping around.
        But not really eye candy as far as technique.

        I’ve seen worse.

        I’ve seen worse on UFC’s current roster and PPV’s despite a corner on the market.

        • RST says:

          Actually now that I think about it (I dont think about Henderson or Guida very much), I find Guida MUCH more tolerable to watch then Henderson. Even though Henderson is probably the better fighter.

          A legitimate contender or and interesting fighter are good enough excuses to be on the current UFC’s roster/PPV’s.

          If they’re not panning out to be either of those they should necessarily be freebee prelims or shifted to a B league like SF if its available to reestablish themselves like Diaz.

      • fd2 says:

        Guida is another good example of why it’s a mistake to pay too much attention to mma blog comments and message boards. If you just read stuff online you’d assume that Guida was the most hated fighter ever, but in reality every time I watch the UFC at a bar everybody is psyched for Guida matches, and his last two or three fights have featured “GUI-DA!” chants from the crowd. He’s a popular fighter.

    • Aunt Jemima says:

      Guida does seem to hold some mysterious redneck allure despite the caveman hairdo but man does it suck watching him fight.Watching him lay on Anthony Pettis was tough to stomach.

      • Aunt Jemima says:

        Whatsay? I Think I just said I don’t get the Guida fascination.Perfectly consistent and in character.

      • Derek says:

        lol at Bendo getting submitted by Aoki. The same guy that Gil had no trouble beating and playing in his guard.

        You do realize that Bendo is a far better grappler and wrestler than Melendez right? Well I guess not or you wouldn’t of made that awful prediction.

        Go look up Bendo vs Melendez Grapplers Quest. Actually I’ll save you the trip. Bendo submitted Melendez in less than a minute. Bendo would murder Aoki. Btw lol at you blasting Bendo for beating overrated fighters than referencing Gils wins over JMMA fighters because we all know how they’ve fared in recent years against top American/brazilian fighters.

        • edub says:

          lol, jk, lmao, smh…

          Ok now that we got that out of the way, what in the world makes you think that Henderson is even close to the skill level of Melendez? He couldn’t outwrestle Anthony Pettis. The same guy who got taken down at will by Guida (who is the same guy that was damn near dominated by a much greener Melendez).

          Grappling only competitions isn’t the best judge of how a fighter would compare to another. Or else GSP would be under Leo Viera in MMA.

        • edub says:

          And yes, Aoki would probably tap both of them (Guida and Bendo).

        • EJ says:

          Calling both Guida and Bendo overated then hyping up the most overated LW in mma today is a joke. Guida and Bendo would both dominate and embarrass that one note wonder Aoki worse than Gil did in their fight. You should know better than to bring up Japanese fighters and try to compare them with their counterparts who actually fight top guys in the US.

        • edub says:

          What fucking top guy has EITHER of Ben and Clay faced and beaten? The best one out of both is Kenny Florian, and he smashed Guida.

  3. Fluyid says:

    Gonna be big. It’ll get bigger from there.

  4. edub says:

    Please tell me some of you have seen the awesomeness that was Angulo-Kirkland.

    If you haven’t I highly advise it.

    • Fluyid says:

      Amazing fight. I fear that Angulo might be damaged goods from this point forward. I hope he’s okay.

      • Mr.roadblock says:

        That fight was awesome. First round was right up there with Haggler Hearns.

        There are some real fun fights out there for Krkland now. Get him in there with Canelo Alvarez.

        Real fun KO on Bute/Johnson undercard. French-Canadian kid Cote starched a dude. Bute fight was terrible. Don’t waste your time.

        • edub says:

          Yea, I heard Cote looked amazing. Can’t wait to see his next step up.

          The Bute-Johnson fight kind of makes you think: Did Glen Johnson finally get old (because nobody looks good in a fight with him, and Bute dominated), or is Bute really that good.

          I’m hoping he fights Kessler befor the winner of the Super 6.

        • mr. roadblock says:

          I tend to think Johnson just got old.

          I figured he’d get inside on Bute and set up shop then batter Bute for the whole second half of the fight. He didn’t come close to doing that. Bute kept him at arms length and pretty much just pot-shotted him for the fight. Slow pace.

          I also thought Johnson would win the Super Six when he came in as a replacement.

          Now what I’m leaning towards is that Bute, Ward and Froch are better than I thought.

          Also I think Johnson missed his time. He got all those tough loses when he was pretty much an obscure fighter. He probably beat a Roy Jones and Tarver when they were a bit overrated. Then he got his time in the sun when his skills were waning.

          Great warrior though. Always brings it. That said, I hope he hangs it up. He’s had a career to be proud of. Even though he was never champ.

      • edub says:

        Fluyid- I was thinking that the whole time watching fight. He just got battered for 5 rounds after the first. I really hope he can come back from that.

        Glad the ref stepped in when he did too. Angulo would’ve fought on heart for 12.

  5. 45 Huddle says:

    It’s going to do over 6 Million viewers. It will end up being the most watched fight in MMA history in America. And actually I would not be surprised if it did over 8 Million viewers. This is going to be a big fight.

    As for FUEL TV…. I changed my my cable company in order to get the channel without an increase in my bill. Actually, it’s saving me about $10 a month. It’s not in HD which is a big stinker, but being able to get pre and post fight shows is fantastic. Really takes me need away from the internet to get most of the content.

    I don’t get Fox Deportes. Most cable companies only offer it as part of a spanish package or if you have the biggest package available. It’s not a big issue. once SpikeTV deal is over with, the prelims will be on FUEL TV.

    • Light23 says:

      I agree. If the over/under was 6 mil I’d easily take over. The UFC PPV buying fanbase could amount to 6-8 million viewers, let alone any casual UFC fans and a pile of interested sports fans.

      A preview show at 3PM in the afternoon did 2 million viewers, so the actual show easily bests 4 mil, unless the fight ends in 30 seconds.

    • Light23 says:

      It’s also relevant to mention that the last big title fight on free TV (UFC 75) did 5.6 million viewers. That was tape delayed on Spike, and without anywhere near as much promotion.

  6. Mr.roadblock says:

    I think he fight will do around 6million. Maybe a little less.

    I actually think Pacman will hurt UFC because a lot of fans will go to wherever they’re watching the Marquez fight early. So you’ll have a lot of bodies in each place but less TVs turned on.

    FOX has really hyped this up during the football games. Better than CBS did. I’m interested in seeing he rating.

  7. Kelvin Hunt says:

    Thanks for the link love Zach…if they best 6 million with a show that features ONE fight between two guys that many people don’t know…well…hold on to you hats.

  8. 45 Huddle says:

    SB Nation purchased MMA Fighting.

    By guess is that Helwani is gone within 6 months and starts doing FOX stuff…

  9. David M says:

    I haven’t heard anyone talking about the UFC fight. I really don’t think this will get as many views as Kimbo, because Kimbo had HUGE buzz, whereas these two have the combined charisma of a clock. Kimbo came into that fight with a massive internet fanbase built in; millions and millions of people had seen him fight.

    Cain has no internet beatings to speak of, only 9 fights, doesn’t look particularly mean or scary like Kimbo, and J2S doesn’t speak English. I think the UFC and Fox are going to be disappointed by this number. I hope I’m wrong. There is no story behind the fight, Cain hasn’t fought in like a year, and I haven’t heard a single casual fan even mention this fight.

Comments

*
To prove you're a person (not a spam script), type the security word shown in the picture.
Anti-spam image