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Gambling on upcoming big Strikeforce fights & TRT usage

By Zach Arnold | July 27, 2011

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Video courtesy of

We’ll get to the latest TRT developments in a minute.

First, the final odds (for informational purposes only) heading into this weekend’s Strikeforce event in Chicago (that will air on Showtime):

Keep your eye on Twitter for Nick Kalikas and his thoughts on the fights. Geno Mrosko asked why no one is considering Fedor’s current mental state heading into the fight.

If I had to make picks: Henderson (I think his conditioning is excellent heading into the fight), Coenen (feel like she’s being undervalued here and Tate, despite size/strength advantage, has had a big layoff), Kennedy (though I’m not entirely confident given the power Lawler possesses striking), Woodley (should be able to grind a decision though I’m not confident in his chin here), and Tarec (time for Scott Smith to retire for his own health & safety).

Speaking of Dan Henderson, did you catch a recent interview he did on Sherdog radio? He was asked about TRT and was not a happy camper that this information became public. He blamed it on someone from UFC leaking it to the media. Henderson looks in top shape.

Which leads us to Chael Sonnen, who told Dave Meltzer that he has no plans on stopping TRT usage. Given that the athletic commissions aren’t stopping him from doing so, we’re back to where we were before he got suspended.

On an additional TRT-related note, our friend Keith Harris has caught Nate Marquardt having some trouble keeping his stories straight in recent media interviews. The evidence? Keith read our transcripts. Well worth your time reading Keith’s article.

Here’s the risk for UFC. On a large public scale, the TRT scandals is not every-day water cooler talk. However, as Kevin Iole correctly pointed out, if there is a major accident or death in a UFC fight and the fighter in question is using TRT or doping, this will be a major black mark on the credibility of the sport. Furthermore, what happens if such an accident takes place in a state/country with a weak or non-existent athletic commission and the person in charge of the TRT allowance is UFC’s own doctor, Dr. Jeff Davidson? Zuffa does not need another TRT scandal or a Dr. George Zahorian-type scandal happening.

It’s easy to throw a fighter and their mark doctor under the bus, but it’s a whole different story if it’s your own company doctor involved in overseeing such medical matters amongst fighters booked on your cards.

Topics: Media, MMA, StrikeForce, UFC, Zach Arnold | 19 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

19 Responses to “Gambling on upcoming big Strikeforce fights & TRT usage”

  1. Light23 says:

    Dan Henderson is a steal at +200.

    He’s been constantly fighting champion level fights and top 10 guys, whereas Fedor is coming off two losses where he got dominated, and his only “good” wins in five years are AA and Timmah.

    People are in denial about Fedor still being a top heavyweight. He looked poor against AA before the KO punch, got busted up against Rogers and lost to Werdum. I saw the writing on the wall but everybody else thought he was going to kill Bigfoot. They still haven’t learnt their lesson.

    • Nepal says:

      Hendo is not a steal at +200. I have already put 110 down on Fedor to win 50. People are writing off Fedor due to his 2 loses. Consider he “got caught” by Werdum, who is as good as it gets. Fedor did what he did to Big Nog in their first fight. He confidently jumped into his opponant’s strength. It worked against Nog but it failed vs. Werdum. If Fedor has fought GSP-like, he would never have done that…. not that I want to see Fedor fight the GSP safe style.

      Vs Bigfoot, the 1st round was very competitive. Who won that round is a toss up. Bigfoot got the takedown in the first few seconds of the 2nd and dominated from there…. with a 55 pound advantage. He was 285 at fight time. Also remember the fight was stopped due to Fedor’s inability to see out of his right eye. He was getting ready for the 3rd round when the doctor stopped it. Who knows what might have happened in round 3?

      Hendo is a good fighter. He hits very hard but is soooo monodimensional. Good sub defense despite his sub loses to the Nogs. How many subs he escapes from vs Big Nog before Nog finally gets him. Pretty impressive. Fedor is/was a better sub guy than Big Nog (in my opinion) and is a far better stand up fighter.

      If Hendo can’t get a 185/170 fighter (Sheilds) off him, how can he get a 230 guy like Fedor off him.

      I can’t see a way for Hendo to win this fight other than getting caught with a big right hand.

      If the odds get better on Fedor, I might drop another 100 on him.

      • Light23 says:

        I don’t see how you can still pretend Fedor is a top heavyweight. His only decent wins in FIVE years are AA and Sylvia. He had a poor performance against Rogers while everybody else is clowning him. He lost in a minute to Werdum and got spanked by Silva.

        Hendo is an elite light heavyweight and has been for years. He’s been fighting Rampage to close decisions, taking rounds away from Anderson Silva, while Fedor was fighting guys who shouldn’t have been in the ring with him.

        Fedor is like any of the old guard. He was great back in 2005 when he was competing in a thin division of one dimensional fighters. His main strength was his quickness, agility and well-roundedness. At 205 the first two are negated since he’s no longer fighting huge guys, and everybody is well-rounded these days.

        • Nepal says:

          This discussion isn’t whether Fedor is a top HW or not, it’s about his fight with Dan Henderson. I’m personally not convinced Fedor is a top 5 HW now. He very well might be but he hasn’t shown it in years. With 20/20 hindsight, we can say everybody is beating AA and Timmy but Fedor did do it in style.

          However in this case, Fedor is not facing a top HW. He is fighting a middleweight. If you break this fight down.
          Who has better striking?
          Who has better grappling?
          Who is faster?
          Who is better off his back?
          Who is better on top?
          Who has better g’n’p?
          Who has better submissions?

          Is Fedor not the answer to all of the above compared to Hendo?

          I try to come up with an area that Hendo is better in. Perhaps pressed up against the cage, greco fighting? Even then, we’ve seen Fedor just body lock people like Big Nog and slam them to the mat. Power in their fists? Both have it in abundance.

          Cardio is the one area I can see Hendo having an advantage.

          But help me out here. Where does Hendo have an advantage?

        • edub says:

          -His fight with Rampage was 4 years ago. And it was a loss no matter if it was kinda close.

          -The last “elite” LHW he fought against was Rich Franklin, and he was an eyepoke away from being stopped in the third round.

          -He took a round away from Silva, not rounds. And he was blasted then choked out in the very next one.

          Nepal- Hendo’s big advantage is in wrestling.

        • Nepal says:

          You’re right that Hendo would have better “pure” wrestling. But for MMA, is it any better?

          Maybe this thread is getting old but nobody’s adding any real advantage for Hendo. If Hendo’s only advantage is pure wrestling, it will be a short night for him.

          I see the betting is more on Fedor now, he’s +260. Too bad, I’m likely not put risk more on those odds.

  2. 45 Huddle says:

    Dan Henderson is an easy bet, although I don’t gamble…

    As for the TRT issue…

    1) Many of the fighters are against it. Or at least pubicly they are.

    2) The UFC is against it, as is evident with the firing of Nathan Marquardt and Lorenzo Fertitta’s harsh words on the topic over the last few weeks.

    The only problem in the TRT issue right now is the Athletic Commissions. They need to ban it. It’s as simple as that.

  3. edub says:

    I’m not betting on Fedor, but I’m pretty confident he will win. People act like Henderson has been destroying top of the food chain guys at LHW. His two big wins in SF are Babalu (top 15 if he was lucky, and got blasted by Gegard 2 fights prior to that), and “Feijao” a borderline top 10 guy who’s chin has failed him in 2 fights already in his short career.

    Fedor is not what he used to be, but he still posseses the speed, submission skills, and size to beat Hendo.

  4. Larry Craig says:

    Fedor did not get “busted up” against Rogers.  He came into the fight with an unhealed cut on his nose, which easily opened up. 

    Also, you forgot to mention that henderson got ‘dominated’ by a 170lb fighter in Jake Shields… How quickly we forget… plus what what are all these championship level fights? Bisping?? Cavalcante?? Please.

  5. Vic Mackey says:

    I don’t know how you could stop TRT. It’s leaglly prescribed medicine. Insulin is anabolic, too. What about thyroid medications? Where does it end?

    • 45 Huddle says:

      There are a lot of over the counter medications that are illegal for the Olympics. Doesn’t matter if it’s legal or not.

      The way it needs to be enforced is by testing year round. Sure, some fighters will keep their levels in check all of the time and be fine. But most likely they will spike in their Test Readings once or twice, get caught for it, and be forced to stop….

      Plus, it’s a long term effect. TRT is really used for former users who can’t produce it naturally anymore. After say 5 to 10 years of the sport testing year round, you would have far fewer users…. Which means far fewer guys having to use TRT..

      • Mr. Roadblock says:

        The reality of banning TRT is that you’re going to see a lot more fights get canceled due to training camp injuries. Also fighters won’t compete past their early 30’s as frequently.

        I say just watch the fights and enjoy them if you enjoy fights. Stop pretending like you give a shit about the fighters and their mental health. Anyone that really cared about the fighters suffering from Alzhiemers and Dementia would push to ban fighting. Like the AMA has been doing for decades now.

  6. Bad News Allen says:

    “2) The UFC is against it, as is evident with the firing of Nathan Marquardt and Lorenzo Fertitta’s harsh words on the topic over the last few weeks.”

    And commission shopping for the next Chael fight.

    • The Gaijin says:

      And allowing/condoning it in Texas, NJ and Germany.

      Look, it’s basically something that’s up to the AC’s to address and I’m sure the UFC could “pressure” them to step it up and do something but then how do you think people react if it looked like the UFC was “influencing” or capable of influencing an AC?

      They’re in an odd situation in that basically all they can do right now is say they are against it and make an example of Marquardt, even if they look somewhat at odds with this stance given the Sonnen saga.

    • 45 Huddle says:

      The UFC goes to a “strong” commission state probably 1 out of every 3 events.

      It’s hardly commission shopping.

      • edub says:

        He wasn’t speaking on that. He was speaking on them finding Chael a weak commission state after going on a tirade about TRT abuse, and firing Nate Marquardt because of it.

        Chael’s fighting in Texas which is historically a terribly inept, borderline corrupt, commission run state. It’s not a coincidence he’s fighting there.

  7. Kelvin Hunt says:

    Henderson, Tate, Kennedy, and Woodley.

  8. Chuck says:

    Henderson has a legit shot of beating Fedor, but Fedor wins this fight. He has way more tools than Hendo and is bigger, and may even be a smidgen faster than Henderson.


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