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Make your predictions for UFC 121 (10/23 Anaheim Pond/Honda Center)

By Zach Arnold | October 23, 2010

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Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 20 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |

20 Responses to “Make your predictions for UFC 121 (10/23 Anaheim Pond/Honda Center)”

  1. IceMuncher says:

    1.25 Million is my guess, up from 1.16 for UFC 116. I think the hype and buyrates for Brock are going to steadily grow until he loses or runs out of competition. He’s got that rare ‘it’ factor, like a Chuck Liddell with mic skills.

  2. 45 Huddle says:

    A fantastic card. This is a top notch PPV.

    The UFC has already done a better job promoting Jake Shields during the 30 second commercials then SF ever did. It’s nice to see them hype him up properly and really push his fight as a co-main event of a Lesnar card.

  3. CapnHulk says:

    I’m hoping that Gabriel Gonzaga can start picking up steam again.

    Is Ortiz vs. Hamill really necessary? Are they going to play it up as a “student fights the master” sort of thing, or do they “totally hate each other” now? Does Tito have any drawing power left anymore? Does anyone even care? I sure as hell don’t.

    • Brad Wharton says:

      Me neither.

      I gave up on caring about Tito a long time ago. I don’t even want to watch him in a ‘I hope this guy takes a comical ass-whooping’ kind of way.

      He’s averaged one fight per year in the last four years, with no wins. The last time he finished someone not called Shamrock was nine years ago. He’s too broken down or disinterested to put a run of fights together (but he’ll be 110%, best he’s ever been for this fight!!!). His name doesn’t even carry the ‘marquee’ value whereby a guy like Hamill is going to be elevated in people’s eyes by beating him.

      Where is the appeal in seeing him fight?

  4. Chromium says:

    I’m still interested in seeing Hamill fight, and Tito is still a highly recognizable name with casual fans that will give Hamill some credibility.

    Lesnar is still the big draw here for me, as I get to taunt his haters afterwards that no human can defeat someone who is part-gorilla.

  5. cutch says:

    His last four opponents were or went on to become champion, so this will be the easiest fight he has had since then.

  6. 45 Huddle says:

    The 2nd episode of Primetime got 1.1 Million viewers.

    This event is going to do huge numbers. I already bought my ticket to the local theater for this one. If Couture/Toney was 2/3rds filled, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this being a packed house.

  7. Fluyid says:

    Huge show.

    They have 100% Spanish language billboards for this card in my city, over in the area that is predominantly hispanic. I drove by two of them today. Really surprised me.

    Prediction? 19,000,000 PPV buys.

  8. david m says:

    The undercard is entirely irrelevant; Brock is the most compelling HW fighter since Tyson, and he is by far the biggest draw in the industry. UFC better pray to God that Brock doesn’t lose.

    • Steve4192 says:

      “UFC better pray to God that Brock doesn’t lose.”

      I really don’t get this line of reasoning.

      Why does everyone assume that a popular champion losing the occasional fight here and there is bad for business? The champ losing only helps to set up even more lucrative rematches and rubber matches. Randy Couture made a career of win two, lose one.

      Obviously, Lesnar can’t lose all the time and remain a draw, but if a loss sets up a meaningful two or three fight series with a young stud like Cain, that will only do good things for the UFC. As long as Lesnar wins 75%-80% of his fights, the odd loss here or there will only accentuate the UFC’s overall business by lending credibility to the guys who beat him.

      • Oh Yeah says:

        I agree. A dominant champion is good, but not always good for business either. Guys like GSP/Anderson have rendered the rest of their weight classes impotent and high level fights are looked down upon just because the next challenge for the winner is so huge.

        As long as Brock remains dangerous coming off of a loss, it won’t hurt his drawing power. The UFC needs him to be a compelling fighter to earn megabucks. Without that, he would only be one of their top 2 draws instead of being the top draw.

    • IceMuncher says:

      Even if he loses to Cain (assuming it isn’t a total one-sided beatdown) I’m still betting Lesnar’s next fight does near the 1 million mark, and if he works his way back to a rematch it would do much better business than the original fight.

      There’s also the possibility you build a couple draws from the loss to your biggest draw, similar to how Rashad and Rampage built a following off their wins over Chuck and are considered major players now. Rashad especially was considered a guy that couldn’t be a draw, and now he’s probably one of their top 5 or so PPV guys.

  9. cutch says:

    I don’t think it would be wise for Brock to fully commit to taking him down in the first round, I would try to press him against the cage and dirty box, with his size it will be hard to get out and as seen in the Brock-Mir fight, he only needs short punches to hurt someone.

    You can have as much cardio as you want but having someone that big leaning against you, it’s bound to take the sting off your punches. Then in the second round I might try for takedowns.

  10. 45 Huddle says:

    I’ve been leaning towards Lesnar for a little while and the weigh-ins sealed it for me. I think Lesnar is just too big and talented here.

    Lesnar, Shields, Ortiz, Sanchez, Schaub, McGee, and Cote.

  11. david m says:

    I got Brock, Kampmann (maybe just because I’m an optimist), Hamill, Thiago, and Gonzaga. If GG can’t beat Schaub, he should really just retire; what a waste of talent that dude is.

  12. Great show. Really excited to watch this tonight.

    -Picking Cain. Younger, does more things, does them well. Years ago the belief was that of the big three heavyweight prospects the UFC was lining up (Cain, Carwin, Brock) that Velasquez was the best talent of the three. I am not going to deviate from that belief. I think Brock tends to believe in his power too much and, like in the Carwin fight, may choose to stand and trade when it doesn’t benefit him. Anything could happen in this bout – Either guy could be KOed in thirty seconds. Either guy could win a grappling match. But the one thing Lesnar can’t do is win a 5 round decision that is primarily striking. Cain, in theory, is better equipped to do that.

    -Shields by decision. Kampmann can defend well enough to not get submitted and I think we might see the lay and pray of Shields return here. Interesting subtext from this fight will be Shields getting a title shot instead of Fitch in spite of both not providing “entertaining” competition. Still, Kampmann is good enough standing and in his submissions that he’s a very live dog and I’m excited to see this.

    -Ortiz wins by, yes, Decision. He’s a stronger and bigger man than Hammill and I think he takes him down and grinds him out over 15. It sets up some more legend fights like a third Forrest Griffin bout or a Wanderlei Silva rematch or a Vitor rematch (should he lose to Anderson) or a ton of other possibilities. Hammill might get cut or Jon Jones could get his win back, then get cut.

    -I like Diego Sanchez to get his support back by beating Thiago. I never really liked Paulo Thiago that much, even if he has a couple quality wins, but Sanchez is a solid wrestler and a more dynamic fighter.

    -Gonzaga by KO. I think the UFC doesn’t care any more if these guys are protected. Used to be that they would carefully match up their favs from TUF and it would be a situation of them knowing something we don’t. TUF 9 might have been the turning point.

    • Got the Schaub and Ortiz fights wrong. Honestly, might be time to let Tito go. Not sure he has any value anymore. Gonzaga looks like he totally forgot he was a BJJ fighter. Still slow as all get out too. Neither fight was very entertaining.

      I said after the Carwin fight that Lesnar couldn’t stand in front of Velasquez like he had Shane, nor expect Cain Velasquez to run out of gas in 3 minutes like Shane Carwin had. I didn’t expect, however, that Cain would be able to grab takedowns of his own and defend the shot as well as he did against Lesnar. Lesnar has basically nothing for Cain in a rematch, which is a pretty shocking thing for even me to say. How does he win should they fight again?

      Shields gassed out in a generally not good fight. He’s still the most dangerous guy to GSP, but he’s gotta get himself leaner ASAP.

      Loved the Sanchez/Thiago fight. Easily FOTN material there. Sanchez just broke the guy’s will, particularly with an uppercut that the announcers missed at the end of round 1. After that, Thiago had probably won the first, and yet went back to his corner with that facial expression of “What the hell have I gotten myself into?”

  13. EJ says:

    The only prediction I have for tonight is that there is going to be a record number of cuts afterwards. Because Yvel, Cote and Gonzaga all embarrased themselves in huge fights for their careers. And I have a feeling they aren’t going to be the only one’s that get the pinkslip, this has to be a record for most pathetic showings by quality fighters against decent competition and it’s early too.


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