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Can UFC sell a rematch between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian?
By Zach Arnold | July 9, 2010
From Sherdog radio on Wednesday, the setup for this question is based on the premise that Kenny Florian beats Gray Maynard and BJ Penn beats Frankie Edgar on August 28th in Boston, therefore leaving the promotion stuck with a rematch that on paper has to be booked but isn’t one that is easy to sell because of how lopsided the first bout was between the two men.
Actually, from a ‘business standpoint,’ a more difficult scenario would be having to do a rematch between Jon Fitch and Georges St. Pierre (something the Sherdog team addresses). However, that match (if it happens) wouldn’t take place until mid-2011 at the earliest.
Onto the radio passage…
JACK ENCARNACAO: “Kenny Florian and BJ Penn, both of course fighting August 28th and the question, would UFC be interested in that rematch? I have to say they would be, I mean I’m not entirely sure what, I guess the Sotiropoulos fight works to some degree but I didn’t really get the sense that they were promoting that Pellegrino fight as a potential contender’s fight. The real response seemed to be, you know, Sotiropoulos is now very much in the conversation and might be prepared for a title eliminator fight. It of course wouldn’t be the first time that, you know, that was said and then the guy gets a title shot due to circumstances calling for it. Maybe they have a show on the docket for Australia. I’ve been saying that over and over again that would be a huge fight for Australia based on the crowd response Sotiropoulos was able to get in February. But, yeah, I think they would have to do a BJ/Kenny Florian rematch at that point.”
LUTFI SARIAHMED: “The problem is just how captivating is it really going to be? Because I think Kenny Florian, for all the improvements we talk about him making, he’s still going to get run over BJ Penn in a rematch and I don’t even think it’s going to be a close. You credit Kenny Florian got getting there but I don’t think a rematch would be close between the two of them and I think the UFC knows that to a large extent, I mean they’ll push it, they’ll sell you on Kenny Florian’s improvements again, but it’s the same song and dance as last. Going from Sean Sherk to the first BJ Penn bout. So if Penn wins here, I mean… For as much as I’d hate it for George Sotiropoulos’ career because he’s not ready for a title bout at this point, he may be in fact be pushed into that bout whether or not he’s ready just because you don’t really want to see Penn/Florian because it’s not going to be any different from the first bout. I think, ideally for the UFC, you have Edgar and Florian win. And then you work with BJ Penn however else you can because Penn/Florian, that rematch, I mean do you see it going any differently? I don’t.”
JACK ENCARNACAO: “I don’t know. I don’t really know because he is very much changed his emphasis. That was his last fight training striking with Mark DellaGrotte and he hasn’t really explained why he’s split from Mark DellaGrotte after that fight but one thing we did see in the Clay Guida knockout which you know few people are able to put a shot, have ever put a shot on Clay Guida and put him to sleep, was a reemphasis on boxing. He said in interviews, Florian did, that you know I think we’re at a stage right now in the game where it’s much more important to emphasize boxing [instead of] Muay Thai and perhaps you know the time to emphasize Muay Thai has passed, at least in terms of my game and we didn’t see, we haven’t seen work the steady diet of standing elbow strikes and some of you know the more elusive circling and leg kick and stick-and-move that that got him to the Penn fight in the first place. So, I think he’s a much different stylist and will be a much different stylist against BJ Penn the second time out. It’s tough. I wouldn’t be any more inclined to pick him to beat BJ than I would be any Lightweight. I would say the same exact thing about that rematch that I said about the Edgar fight and we saw what happened. And really the way Edgar beat BJ Penn wasn’t appreciably different from how in theory Kenny Florian would beat BJ Penn. I think Edgar has better wrestling, but that’s not to say that Florian needs strictly wrestling to avoid getting brought to the ground again. I think what we saw in that first fight was a game plan where Florian wanted to tie up BJ’s arms, tire him out in the clinch against the fence, have an extended period of basically leaning on him to see if he would gas down the stretch, and he found out, Diego found out in the next fight that it isn’t that BJ any more and perhaps it’s never been that BJ when it comes to 155. You know, the sense that you beat BJ by taking him down, the stretch, tiring him out, and then picking him apart when he doesn’t have any gas left is a 170 conceit, is a way of looking at him pretty much in a Welterweight context and if he’s forced to make 155 and training with Marinovich on conditioning, that’s not going to be the way to beat BJ Penn ay more. It’s going to be point-scoring, much like we saw from Edgar. So I think Florian executes a completely different game plan. I think he’s just as capable of beating BJ Penn the way Edgar did, which admittedly is not decisively and I did have that UFC 112 fight scored for Penn over Edgar. You know, the UFC sometimes finds themselves in this position. I mean, if Jon Fitch beats Thiago Alves on August 7th, he probably will get another title shot against Georges St. Pierre despite a complete shutout at UFC 87 against him. Some guys just are so good that they deserve to be the top contender, but there might be a gap, an insurmountable gap even in talent and in ability with the champion. But it really doesn’t mean that you foreclose on the opportunity if you get him back in the picture. Sure, it’s more intriguing for the UFC to give someone new and fresh a shot at BJ Penn, but just because they’re new and fresh doesn’t mean you can more easily sell the public on the chances that they’ll beat them. You know, no one was sold, hardly anyone seemed to be sold on Frankie Edgar being able to beat BJ Penn and that certainly wasn’t why that fight was put together. But at the same time, you could have made the argument that Gray Maynard deserved that shot per beating Frankie Edgar and they picked Edgar because they thought he was more spectator-friendly and perhaps more impressive in his signature win toward the title shot than Maynard was in a plodding win over (Nate) Diaz. So, it’s a complicated picture, but I certainly don’t see the UFC holding out on doing a Florian/Penn rematch if that’s what presents themselves in going in the direction of anywhere else because I just don’t think there would be anybody else at that point in that position. If Maynard beats Florian, then we’ve got something perhaps. And we’re also assuming that Penn basically is the champ already.”
LUTFI SARIAHMED: “I mean, listen, assume that Penn and Florian win their bouts, yes. I think it’s, I’m not really excited about that bout, though. I’m really not and I understand what happened between Edgar and Penn, but… in a 12 month span because I believe 101 took place last [August], are we really talking… actually what will be probably, a 15-16 month span by the time the fight rematch happens if it were to, I really just don’t see it. And like you said though, we may not have another choice because George Sotiropoulos or Evan Dunham or one of those guys up is probably going to be a bit too soon for either of them.”
JACK ENCARNACAO: “Yeah, I mean, I’m not saying that it would be big business, although UFC rematches if they weren’t close at all the rematches in a sense, you know don’t sell, but we haven’t seen many of those. Most of the UFC rematches do better business than the first match and they happen to be close fights, which is why they’re rematches in the first place. It’s sort of rare that someone does what Florian is perhaps about to do on August 28th and what Jon Fitch perhaps is about to do on August 7th in that they get the shot, lost pretty decisively to the champ, and then still set themselves apart from every other contender in the division. We really don’t have much precedent for someone clawing their way back like that in a UFC context so I think it’s still kind of an open question as to how interested people are going to be because it’s so rare that a guy that gets totally shut out by a guy gets a shot at him again anyway.”
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 17 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Can they sell Kenny Florian in any sort of title fight going forward? It would be tough. It would need a solid co-main event to back it up.
45 Huddle’s point is well-taken, but I’d say that the UFC could sell ice to an Eskimo (or however that saying goes).
I know Kenny is not a draw, but he is a damn exciting fighter. IMO he has had two subpar performances in the last 3 years in the octagon. Against Huerta and Penn.
As to selling a rematch with Penn it would probably be very hard, and have to be a Co-main event on a super card.(Co-main with Brock vs. Cain on New years anyone). The lighter weights period just don’t seem to be as big of draws as the higher weight guys…
He might not be a draw in the sense Lesnar or GSP is but his UFN cards do consistently strong numbers and his PPV with BJ did really good business.
As far as “needing a good co-main event” goes, practically every fighter in the UFC needs back up to do a huge card
Thiago Alves has even less of a chance against GSP than Florian does against BJ. If Kampmann gets 1 more win then he may be next in line at 170 after GSP beats Alves/Fitch after beating Koscheck.
It’s really not going to matter since Florian will not beat Maynard and we will end up with Penn/Maynard. But if it somehow does end up Florian/Penn 2 then yes the UFC can sell that fight. They were able to sell Silva/Franklin 2 so they should have no problem with Penn/Florian 2. I understand Franklin may have been a champion and Florian has never been one, but the Franklin beat down was way worse.
And Florian did not KO or TKO Guida as Encarnacao claims, it was a rear naked choke. I don’t think anyone has ever KO’d Guida in his entire career. And I’ve been watching him for a long time since he’s a local boy.
I think you can absolutely sell Florian in a rematch. Kenny is taller and longer than BJ, and more importantly has redefined himself as a boxer. This comes into play because BJ himself loves to fall into predictable boxing mode which allowed Frankie Edgar beat him (in a controversial fashion though). To me, this sells, but perhaps is slightly difficult on a mainstream level.
Sometimes, the hardcores’ tendency to write off quality fights as not worth happening/watching is disappointing.
Kenny finishes Gray who’s undefeated and BJ wins then it’s a pretty easy fight to sell imo. Kenny had one of the worst gameplans ever in a fight, he wasn’t dominated like Diego who had nothing to offer Penn he lost because of a horrible gameplan. Kenny is one of their biggest name LW’s and considering how beatable Edgar made BJ look i’d give him an even shot at beating Penn in a rematch if he doesn’t have another idiotic gameplan.
What else was Kenny going to do? Box with him? Roll on the ground? He had no choice but to try to steal a page from GSP’s book and try to grind/wear out Penn.
I guess he really should have went out there and bounced around and done a gymnastics routine, because that’s how Edgar beat Penn. He “looked” like he was a “busier” fighter…whatever the f**k that means.
As soon as Penn turned it up when he needed to, Florian was done.
If Florian was trying to outpoint Penn via striking…that fight would’ve been over by the 2nd cuz Penn was going to catch him sooner rather than later.
That “gameplan” kept him in the fight til the 4th round.
You act like any LW could replicate what Edgar did. Edgar is fast as fuck, and that’s how he tricked the judges into thinking he was doing more than what was actually done.
Edgar didn’t trick anyone he beat BJ, I know it hurts Penn fans to ever admit that their guy got beat but Frankie worked him get over it.
Florian has much better and well versed striking than Frankie and if he used the same gameplan that he did against Huerta he would have beaten BJ.
Trying to fight BJ with GSP’s gampeplan was by far the stupidest thing i’ve seen a guy do in years. Kenny has been a killer since he lost to Sherk early in his career and has bounced back strong from the BJ loss too. He finished Gray a big strong wrestler who is a bad match up for him then it’s pretty clear that Kenny deserves another shot to make up for his failure in the first one.
I watched the fight and I dunno, maybe 80% of the “experts” felt Penn should’ve won. I think I’m not too far off in thinking Penn landed more than Edgar and should’ve taken at least the first 3 rounds.
Worse are the Penn haters or the guy who blindly follow what the judges say w/o their own opinion.
Learn to open your eyes and watch a fight w/o bias and maybe you’ll come to realization Penn won that one.
Doesn’t matter…Gray will beat Florian easy unless he has a terrible gameplan.
BJ vs Kenflo 2 would be nice but please don’t let us hear no more replay of “I want BJ’s belt”. BJ Penn won’t wear the belt again in the octagon.
BJ Penn was one of the best light weight ever but he’s definitely not the best right now in any weight division.
I think his lack of wrestling will be further exposed in this year and 2011 too. He’ll lose to Edgar again, then unless Zuffa tries hard to protect him, he’ll keep losing until Dunham finally submits and retires him.
I think it can happen, Kenny is improving his came, besides Edgar has grown confidence in the division.
Ken-Flo’s problem is he needs a new image. He already lost badly to Penn once, and he does not look like a badass. But he may well end up being the most deserving fighter.
He’s really gonna have to find a new way to sell himself, or a victory Gray Maynard fight alone may not be enough. The UFC is still a business and Penn vs. Florian II is just not a strong headliner.
If there is a god, this will not happen.
There have been too many instant rematches lately, and they’re crap. Also too many cards involving BJ Penn and Anderson Silva.
I know I can’t be the only one who feels this way.