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UFC 114: Sportsbook guy Joey Odessa says Rashad Evans will win all three rounds against Rampage Jackson and Dan Miller will beat Michael Bisping
By Zach Arnold | May 29, 2010
He never fails to raise eyebrows and was on his game during this radio interview on Friday with Jordan Breen.
“The two plays that I like the most, I really like (Dan) Miller and I think that contrary to the entire world I think this is going to be an easy night for Rashad Evans and the reason I think it’s going to be an easy night for Rashad is I think Greg Jackson has Rashad at a good place, he came back, he beat Thiago Silva, and you know that was kind of his test, that was his litmus test right there. They put him to the test with Silva and he bounced back well and he’s mature and I think if he doesn’t let his ego get the best of him or even if the crowd noise, if he fights a smart fight I think he could win all three rounds against Rampage (Jackson). I think Rampage might have to knock him out to beat him.”
Click on full-page mode to view what Joey Odessa thinks is the best parlay play for UFC 114, along with his thoughts on other fighters including why he thinks Dan Miller will beat Michael Bisping.
How would you pick a parlay play for UFC 114?
“You know I would parlay Miller and Evans in a two-teamer. I’m not a big fan of parlays but if you’re going to pick two guys to parley together and have a decent payout you get almost 4-to-1 and if you do like Dong (Hyun) Kim and you put all three of them together you’re looking at like at a 10 or 12 to 1 payout for every dollar bet and I mean how could you go wrong there because they’re all really close fights.”
How were the money lines for Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans when the fight was originally booked for Memphis versus the money lines for the fight now?
“Well we actually opened that fight in July of 2009 and we opened it a pick ’em and we saw the line swing a little bit in Rampage’s favor but as the reality show progressed and you saw the maturity levels on TV between the two fighters money came back towards to Evans, so it’s really sat around pick ’em.”
How has all the media coverage influenced the lines for this fight?
“Well you’re right about people buying into things. I mean the media is the sportsbook’s best friend. You know the sportsbook generally moves the line based on the money that comes in on either fighter but if they have a good grip on where the media’s at with it because I mean the media and these 24/7’s and these pre-fight episodes all try to paint an even picture of each fighter one week to the next you think one guy’s going to win and then the next guy’s going to win, which is tremendous for the sportsbooks. You know, on the flip side, I mean you have to separate the hype from the reality and those reality shows and those preview shows aren’t necessarily the reality of what’s going on. You got a guy coming off a 14 month layoff here and undeniably it’s going to have an effect on him.”
Has the betting public warmed up to Rampage winning the fight?
“Absolutely. Rashad was as high as a 1.35 earlier in the week and it’s come back the other way. The line is sitting right around pick ’em. I don’t see either guy really going over maybe -120 either way. You know, it’s a great fight for the books because it’s going to [bring] two-way action all the way through.”
With Dan Miller as a +150 underdog, a lot of people seem interested in picking him as an underdog. Are people putting their money where their mouths are?
“You know, I like Miller here. I don’t see why (Michael) Bisping’s such a big favorite. I think the fight’s a complete toss-up and Bisping’s been on the right end of some really close decisions. You know he’s got the benefit of the doubt in him. I think the general feeling is that you know people remember that and they think that Bisping is a bit of a Zuffa favorite and he might get the benefit but you know there’s some sharp money coming in on Miller but at the same time the UK people, they support you know they’ll bet anybody, I mean they bet Carl Froch against Mikkel Kessler in the boxing in Denmark so I don’t put anything past them. They thought Hatton would beat Mayweather so the bandwagon guys are on Bisping and I really believe that Dan Miller wins this fight.”
How much money do we see from UK punters on the UK fighters like Dan Hardy, Paul Daley, and Michael Bisping?
“Well, the European scene in general in boxing is huge. It’s really underestimated with the Internet and whatnot and the ability for people to watch fights all over the world, but as far as you know there’s not that many stars in Britain and there’s not that many you know like Georges St. Pierre is in Canada. There’s not that many you know superstars coming out of Canada so they really get behind him and they send it on him on him. I mean they bet their [fighters] and the fans will bet the guys you know that they like regardless of what the number is or how out of line it is, I mean that’s how the sportsbooks make money.”
Which money lines stand out the most to you on the UFC 114 card? Amir Sadollah is a favorite…
“Well, about Dong (Hyun Kim), I mean that line is largely due to public perception, I mean Amir’s out there he’s doing some TV stuff. I mean he’s only had one real setback to Johny Hendricks and he got caught and that can happen to anybody. You know on the flip side, the Asian fighters with the exception of (Yushin) Okami have had like pretty mixed results in the UFC so far inside the cage and a little bit of success, so these guys you know the players look at that and they kind of put them all on the same [platform] and say, ‘well, these guys are coming over here you know these (Takanori) Gomis, they’re not winning, things aren’t going as well,’ so the line… Amir is the favorite in the bout but it probably should be a little bit closer than it is but again you know you take everything into consideration, I mean that one loss that Amir has, Amir’s got some good wins. He got good wins against wrestlers, you know with the exception of Hendricks naturally and I think that you know if you put a gun to my head I would bet Kim…”
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 5 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Bagels is wrong way more than he’s right (when he is speaking out).
[…] Joey Odessa picking Dan Miller to beat Michael Bisping — stupid pick or brilliant work to get fish to put money on a losing proposition? If it’s the latter, should Jordan Breen be bringing him onto his show? […]
Is the round table always transcribed here at fight opinion? I found through google.
Fluyid – No way mate. Its not the latter. I bet Evans big, Kim and Bisping small. He would not give out wrong plays.
The last 5 round tables he has hit close to 85%. He is outspoken and blunt (admit a 3 round sweep was an arrogant thing to say) but that has always been his nature since 2001 at the UG. Dana White Jr maybe? And I’d wager they asked him to go on and not the opposite.
Is this Joey?
You still in Costa Rica?
Fluyid – No. I told him on MSN that Miller had too many problems to overcome. I told you I bet Bisping and he liked Miller.
Do you have him on MSN? But original question: Are the previous round table chats archived anywhere where I can compare Rios, Breen and Sherwoods plays side by side without the odds?