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Evidence mounting that big UFC PPVs on days before big WWE PPVs are causing a big headache for WWE
By Zach Arnold | May 7, 2010
Yesterday, news broke that the number of worldwide PPV buys for this year’s Wrestlemania was 885,000. For WWE, that is a bad sign and an estimated 20% behind what people were expecting. WWE has PPV clearance worldwide in many more markets than UFC does, as UFC is just building up their international business right now with a lot of over-the-air or cable television deals.
Take note of what the trends are with weekends where a UFC PPV is on a Saturday and a WWE PPV is on the next day on a Sunday. Last November, UFC ran on 11/21 with Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz. The PPV didn’t draw great numbers for UFC, but it did enough damage to WWE’s Survivor Series PPV buy rate. Survivor Series was traditional one of WWE’s “original four” big PPVs. It has now been eliminated. On March 27th, UFC ran their Newark, NJ PPV with Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy. St. Pierre is the company’s second biggest PPV attraction and dominates the Canadian marketplace. The estimated PPV buy rate for UFC 111 in Newark was a little over 700,000 PPV buys. The next day, Wrestlemania took place and as you will see below in quotes from both Dave Meltzer and Bryan Alvarez, WWE drew below expectations both domestically and worldwide with their PPV buy rate.
Dave Meltzer: “In the last six months on PPV. It’s Wrestlemania and Survivor Series and they both came, the guy (on the WWE conference call) goes, the day after ‘a competing event,’ he didn’t use the words UFC. I think maybe he was afraid the words were banned or something, someone was in his headset about to scare him, so he just said “a competing event” and then Vince (McMahon) just was, ‘Absolutely not, the competing event draws from the boxing fans, they do not draw from the entertain fans, we draw from the entertain fans,’ it was like a complete denial of something that was so obvious, the minute I saw that buy rate it was like, ‘Holy shit!” you know, UFC did a lot more of a number, I mean I misread this one bad, you know, and it’s funny because the trending patterns were absolutely right, the trending patterns predicted 515,000 North Americans buys and I was just like, ‘There’s no fucking way’, you know, this is Wrestlemania, this was you know Michaels and Undeteraker was so well-promoted, but you know the thing is that people are going to have there, you know Vince also did blame it on more people, he used the ‘more people getting together and there were just as many viewers as their was in the past’ but you know that’s bullshit.
The thing is people are going to get together, you know buddies are going to get together, and if it’s a weekend with two shows, the buddies are going to get together, they’re not getting together on Saturday night and Sunday night, they’re going to pick and choose and on this one they picked “the other show” and I thought this would be the one show a year, I mean because normally if you’re going to do that, they’re going to pick the UFC.”
Bryan Alvarez: “That is what we said. That’s a very important point, I mean this is what we said going on, that we thought that if there was one show a year where WWE could effect UFC and not vice versa, it was this one, and this one would be an aberration and as it turns out, it was not an aberration at all.”
…
Dave Meltzer: “This one was against a big UFC and when the buddies got to choose like which night they’re going out or are we going to go out and hang out and eat pizza and watch UFC or we going to hang out and watch Wrestlemania, where we missed out was more chose UFC than Wrestlemania. So, that’s the story.”
UFC is attracting many North American professional wrestling fans. The bigger question is whether or not the pattern will remain that these disgruntled wrestling fans look at UFC as a “substitute” or as a “replacement” to watching wrestling on PPV and TV.
Topics: Media, MMA, Pro-Wrestling, UFC, WWE, Zach Arnold | 13 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Dare I say the choice has already been made for many of the fans. The stuff that both the WWE and TNA are putting out there right now it horrible.
Case in point… The Ric Flair character worked well late into his career because he changed it up from the NWA to the WWF back to WCW…. Then to WCW with Hogan… Then back to the WWE. Even though his character was not fresh, it at least felt like it because the cast of characters around him was always changing and evolving.
Shawn Michaels is no Ric Flair. He was a pretty boy high flyer back in the day. That gimmick doesn’t work when you have thin hair, move around like you are old, and give off completely flat promos.
That is just one example of many, but man has Pro Wrestling gotten bad lately. I really don’t know anybody who is a fan anymore. Back 10 to 15 years ago, I knew so many people who I could talk Pro Wrestling with. It started with Hogan going over to WCW. ECW coming into the indie scene for a few years. Then the WWE was firing on all cycliners. Man, they made some great TV back in the day.
The big thing is that I don’t think Pro Wrestling is ever going to recover. I think it’s going to die a slow and painful death. MMA is real life pro wrestling. It is what pro wrestling should have been all along. When I was 10, I was going to Pro Wrestling matches. Now I see 10 year olds at a Bellator show.
One major gimmick in Pro Wrestling is the tough guy one. That gimmick is over. You can’t talk up a guy being tough when you have a legit sports league like the UFC that actually showcases those guys.
I think once Vince McMahon either dies or gets too old to operate the business, that the WWE will be in serious trouble.
Plus, all of the talent they use to have free reign over…. Most of them go towards MMA now. Which leaves them with really bad athletes to showcase.
Wrestling has always been very cyclical so I think this has something to do with the low number. Also, I think the product for the last couple years has been very bad and this number reflects that also.
Who knows? Maybe Vince will get a wake up call and go back to Attitude era angles and booking instead of an irish midget (who’s over more than 90% of the talent), clean cut spinny belt wearing no faces, old decrepit talent and a son in law whose nepotism is poisonous. I don’t think the investors would allow that though.
I don’t think it’s a cyclical thing with the WWE this time around. The last time they had a down time it was after WrestleMania 6 and then things didn’t pick up again until WrestleMania 14. It was a good 8 year down period.
It’s been 9 years since WCW went out of business and the entire time they have gone downhill since then. Plus, during the 90’s there was so many untapped stars waiting to come out. Hogan still had a 2nd chance in WCW this time around. There were a lot of great wrestlers who were finally getting exposure in WCW and the WWF.
There is no place right now to get a 2nd run of great “Cruiserweights” from. No new Mysterio’s, Guerrero’s, or Malenko’s. The interntional scene is basically the WWE. No place for them to get the untapped resources like the next Steve Austin or The Rock. Not to mention both Austin and Rock won’t be making a 2nd run at it like Hogan and Savage did in WCW.
And that’s the major difference. At this point in the downhill cycle last time, they were already showing signs of life. Already had the talent ready to emerge. There is none of that this time. It’s been 9 years since WCW died and the industry has never looked this bad since before Hogan.
I don’t care if the WWE is still making money. Things are set up right now that is giving them basically no future.
People seem to get the impression that pro wrestling used to do giant PPV numbers at their peaks of popularity (80s with Hogan, 90s with Austin), but they really didn’t. Pro wrestling has very few blockbuster buyrates that compares to boxing and now UFC. There are only two WWE shows on the top 20 of all time list (Wrestlemania’s 17 and 23) but yet their television numbers always stay fairly solid. That’s because their core audience are kids and kids are not a good market for pay per view for some reason. Parents will buy the toys, they’ll buy the video games, they’ll take them to see a live show once a year. But they are not going to let them buy more than one pay per view a year in most cases. UFC, on the other hand, has the 18-35 demo that make their own money so can buy shows as they see fit, that’s the difference. And on the other hand, the UFC would never get the consistent ratings of Raw for Ultimate Fighter.
The main sticking point is how easy it was for the 18-35 year olds to walk away from pro wrestling and show no signs of coming back. It’s because of that massive stigma that comes from being an adult pro wrestling viewer of reasonable intelligence. You get nearly as negative of a reaction from people as admitting you’re into Furries or are a Susan Boyle groupie. And there’s nothing WWE can do about that, that’s why they refuse to admit they’re a problem. They’re helpless to the fact that the UFC is a million times cooler to be a fan of and the only people left who don’t care are kids. So they’ve just got to get used to the fact that they’re like training wheels for future UFC fans and expect a turnover of new viewers every 5 years or so. And they will keep the kids, as kids want cartoon character superheroes that MMA can’t provide.
But, as has been stated here earlier, while the parents don’t mind shelling out for the merchandise & a live show once or twice a year, they’re not allowing their kids to order $50 PPVs every month. Especially if the parent is a fan of combat sports themselves who order their fair share of boxing and/or MMA PPVs.
Even those folks that are living the high life or have an upper mid-class lifestyle & budget aren’t likely to be ordering ALL those assorted PPVs. Especially in this economy.
That is unless they have a LOT of likeminded friends who are diligent about shelling out their share each time around.
Because if you’re a boxing & MMA fan on any level who still follows pro wrestling somewhat & there are three ( or more likely these days, FOUR ) PPVs to choose from what are you going to order? The actual athletic contests who’s results are up in the air & can end at any moment in a variety of legitimately violent ways?
Or the worked matches, which these days have increasingly less & less drama to them.
I mean, seriously, just how many times can they rehash the same old fueds & give the belts to Cena, HHH, Orton, Batista et al?
IMO, the pro wrestling business will be a VERY minor form of entertainment within the next decade & it’s last stronghold will be in Japan.
In the WWE’s case, the chickens have finally come home to roost, albeit it took them 25 years to do it.
Vince McMahon’s shrewd reasoning for packaging pro wrestling as “sports entertainment” has a number of levels to it; we know that a lot of it was to get out from under State Athletic Commission scrutiny and taxes. Okay, smart business move, but look what it wrought.
McMahon is a master at promotion, and knowing what the fans want. Right now though, the touch has been lost. He has nothing to combat MMA with; while a lot of those guys at WWE have wrestling background, they’re not really wrestlers. They are performers; there is a difference.
The steroid problem has come back to bite WWE and other organizations in the ass, but primarily the wrestlers themselves. Look at how many have died over the years, and I’m afraid there will be more deaths, many more.
The thing that old-school pro wrestling fans have long decried is now reality: it is not wrestling at ITS BASE. You needed wrestlers to form the base of the product; sure, there were great performers, such as Hogan, who filled out the talent pool.
It is true, there are pro wrestling fans who can’t stand MMA; they would rather see a “sport” that hints at violence, but it is controlled violence, to an extent. That said, look at the number of injuries in a supposedly entertainment-based sport. Those injuries are real, and the problems that follow those injuries are also real.
Thing is, MMA has exploded in popularity, and that is in part due to crossovers like Lesnar and Lashley. It is also in part that the fans want the real thing.
So what does WWE and TNA do? Unfortunately, they are taking the same tired old wrestlers and fighting the same old fights (Hogan and Flair…again? How many times now have they done that?).
Honestly, there isn’t much of an answer. While I don’t think WWE and TNA are going to turn into indie circuits, doing a few cards here and there in high school gyms anytime soon, the writing is on the wall.
There’s nothing new anymore in pro wrestling, at least in the US that holds anyone’s interest for very long. There will still be diehard fans that buy the PPVs, as long as they are offered, but the loss to real MMA is a serious one, and I can’t see how McMahon and his minions are going to deal with it.
I have a feeling that McMahon could (I say could) try and sign former MMA guys who have some pro wrestling background and bring them in. The “Different Style Fight” concept was however tried by Inoki in New Japan, and it just didn’t work. I also can’t see some of those dudes swallowing their pride to job to guys they could wipe the mat with in the cage (even if the money was good).
I don’t think it’s the end, but the future looks grim for a while now.
“I also can’t see some of those dudes swallowing their pride to job to guys they could wipe the mat with in the cage (even if the money was good).”
I don’t buy that at all.
Shamrock, Severn & Tank jobbed to plenty of guys they could have mauled during their WWF/WCW days. Ditto for Frye & Barnett over in Japan. If a guy comes from a pro wrestling background, he won’t have any problem with jobbing occasionally.
Actually, Steve what I should have clarified was that former MMA fighters might have a problem with their pride, meaning guys who legitimately trained in MMA or the related disciplines. One of the Gracies refused to be involved in worked bouts in Japan, for example.
Then again, you are correct with the names you mentioned, and I should add others–Kevin Randleman and Mark Coleman for two.
Kazuyuki Fujita became a problem for New Japan, in that he would NOT job to hardly anyone, because he was still a force in MMA at the time. I guess it depends on who you deal with, and how you do it.
I think Vince realizes the tide has shifted more than people give him credit for. He did go the kid friendly route in 2008 or so when it became clear UFC wasn’t going anywhere. He would never admit it, but the only reason to do that is because you know the war is lost with adults, so you might as well double up efforts on getting new 8 year olds to watch.
But there’s ways to stay making good money beyond pay per views. WWE will always sell more merchandise than UFC, their video library still rakes in the dough, and they’ve still got the UFC beat in the overseas market for now anyway. Plus they run two live shows a night and the UFC can’t do that with medical suspensions. And they will always have at least 4 million TV viewers no matter how crappy things get. WWE isn’t going anywhere just because they don’t sell as many PPVs.
“I think Vince realizes the tide has shifted more than people give him credit for.”
Considering the rumors that Vince played a part in the UFC getting banned on German television, I think it is pretty clear he has a good grasp of what a threat MMA is to his business. He just won’t admit it publicly.
Wow, good posts from everyone.
Just a few quotes from some of you w/ some responses:
“Dare I say the choice has already been made for many of the fans. The stuff that both the WWE and TNA are putting out there right now it horrible.That is just one example of many, but man has Pro Wrestling gotten bad lately. I really don’t know anybody who is a fan anymore. Back 10 to 15 years ago, I knew so many people who I could talk Pro Wrestling with.”
Oh yeah, I haven’t followed pro wrestling states side for almost 10 years. I went to the two Ring of Honor shows & the second DragonGate USA shows here in Phoenix over Wrestlemainia weekend (had NO urge to see WrstleMania at all) and enjoyed myself a great deal,…but that has been it.
I still watch and occationally get DVDs of wrestling from Japan, but much less frequently. WWE & TNA is just embarrassing. I still show friends stuff from Japan who hate pro wrestling, but they are suprised that they enjoyed “the stuff from Japan”.
They is nothing appealing to me from WWE & TNA. TNA is a bigger dissapointement the WWE, because they have some talent & a chance to set themselves apart,…but all they do is “push the old guys” and try to be like Vince and end up being WWE-light.
“The big thing is that I don’t think Pro Wrestling is ever going to recover. I think it’s going to die a slow and painful death. MMA is real life pro wrestling. It is what pro wrestling should have been all along. When I was 10, I was going to Pro Wrestling matches. Now I see 10 year olds at a Bellator show.”
This ties into the following quote –
“The main sticking point is how easy it was for the 18-35 year olds to walk away from pro wrestling and show no signs of coming back. It’s because of that massive stigma that comes from being an adult pro wrestling viewer of reasonable intelligence. You get nearly as negative of a reaction from people as admitting you’re into Furries or are a Susan Boyle groupie.And there’s nothing WWE can do about that, that’s why they refuse to admit they’re a problem.”
Well, yes & no.
Fans are walking away from it because it sucks. When the WWF & WCW were putting out a good/entertaining product, I knew all kinds of adults that used to talk about it.I still have friends that even now, ask me to make compilations of great matches of Japanese pro wrestling, who have never seen it before I showed it to them….and they think WWE is garbage.
Why? Because it doesn’t feel like an emarrassment to want to watch or enjoy it, like it is to watch WWE.
I can’t speak for ALL old school pro wrestling/NWA/WCW fans, but all that I pesonally know now watch MMA and don’t watch ANY WWE. Some watch TNA occationally with the hope that they might see something they like, but usually they are disappointed.
“People seem to get the impression that pro wrestling used to do giant PPV numbers at their peaks of popularity (80s with Hogan, 90s with Austin), but they really didn’t. Pro wrestling has very few blockbuster buyrates that compares to boxing and now UFC. There are only two WWE shows on the top 20 of all time list (Wrestlemania’s 17 and 23) but yet their television numbers always stay fairly solid”
Bingo.
But the big difference between now & the 1990s is that when WCW & the WWF were doing great TV numbers for cable they were BOTH drawing ratings in the “7” range,…and one time the WWF drew a 10 at the peak of theMonday Night Wars when WCW was pre-empted for something else.
THAT is some pretty solid TV advertisment revenue.
“But, as has been stated here earlier, while the parents don’t mind shelling out for the merchandise & a live show once or twice a year, they’re not allowing their kids to order $50 PPVs every month.”
Another bullseye. 🙂
The WWE just has too many PPVs (not that I’m going to buy any mind you). They would probably increase their PPV revenue by running one every other month. At one point I believe they were running one EVERY month, or very close to it.
Who the hell can afford that?
With six solidly booked PPVs, fans won’t have to decided which theyhave to pick and choose from, as they will be much more likely purchase possibly every PPV (six).
The other down side to having so many PPVs it that TV basicaly becomes advertiements for the PPVs and not much more. With two months build up, it becomes more important to have more meaninful TV shows,which will probably equal higher TV ratings,…and TV revenue.
” I think Vince realizes the tide has shifted more than people give him credit for. He did go the kid friendly route in 2008 or so when it became clear UFC wasn’t going anywhere. He would never admit it, but the only reason to do that is because you know the war is lost with adults, so you might as well double up efforts on getting new 8 year olds to watch. ”
I’m sure this is true,…along with wanting to look more family friendly after the Guerrero & Benoit incidents. It all just added up in his head as thebest route to go.
“I think once Vince McMahon either dies or gets too old to operate the business, that the WWE will be in serious trouble.”
Unless Shane McMahon comes back to run the company, I beleive this to be true.
Shane left the WWE because he didn’t beleive the current product was the direction to take the company into. He also wanted his father to purchase the UFC before ZUFFA could, advised his dad to purchase Strikeforce, was the voice in his ear also trying to convince him to create a UWFI style of pro wrestling this side of the Pacfic.
Shane was able to see the writing on the wall and wantd to prepare for the future. He also worked in the ring and enjoyed the “fight” aspect over the soap-opera aspects.
A lot of MMA fans will deny there’s a crossover with Pro Wrestling because they hate it, but it makes sense that there would be.
The majority of PPV buying wrestling fans are going to be over 18, with jobs to provide the disposable income needed for a $45 monthly price tag.
I used to be a huge diehard wrestling fan, reading all the “insider” websites, watching ROH etc, and that community is really the exact same demographic as MMA fans. I first noticed UFC when I got satellite TV (in the UK) and saw re-runs of the really old ultimate knockout shows. Naturally as an 18 year old guy I liked seeing someone get KTFO violently.
The reason I really got into it though, was when I saw a re-run of Tito Ortiz vs Shamrock (the 1st fight). I was a big Shamrock fan from his WWF run, and naturally thought he was a badass. The idea of seeing him actually fight someone for real was extremely intriguing. I thought he was going to kick ass, but here was this young, cocky kid who beat the snot out of him.
So I went out and bought that event on DVD. It was an exciting event and with all the prelims and extras took maybe 5 hours to watch, so it was a fantastic evening of entertainment. It had a real “big fight” feel and was presented very much like pro wrestling with the ramp and pyro etc.
Four years later and I’m a diehard MMA fan and really deeply into the sport. I don’t care about wrestling much at all. If they put on a 1998-2000 WWF style product I’d watch for sure, but every now and again when I check in it’s just the same old lame stuff.
The idea of going to a WWE event, for me, is laughable. Having moved to a big city for university there have been numerous WWE house shows over the last few years, but I’d never even consider going to one.
On the other hand I spent £115 on a UFC ticket when they came to Belfast, and 180 euro when they went to Dublin. The Dublin trip probably cost me 400 euro in total. I wasn’t willing to spend £15 or however much it is to see Wrestlemania, but I spent £18 to see the PPV internet stream of WEC 48.
Brock Lesnar is probably bringing over a lot of the hardcore wrestling crowd like Ken Shamrock did for me.
You are very much correct; the interest created by Lesnar’s MMA arrival was either 1) his fans who wanted to see what a former NCAA and WWE champion would do to the opposition, or 2) those who hated him see him get the shit kicked out of him by “real” fighters.
Well, it’s pretty clear that Lesnar can handle himself just fine. Lashley is another example; even Herschel Walker, is a good one.
Walker is too old to be a force, but for a guy his age he is in exceptional physical shape and is master of martial arts. There’s no reason he could not hold his own against some of those guys, but championship material? I’m afraid not; his age and lack of MMA experience would count against him.
You also make a very good point about the presentation of the fights. It is a big fight atmosphere, and the outcomes can turn on a dime. Who would not be excited by it?
So again, WWE has to consider remaking itself once again, and figure out how to do it, if they want to keep raking in the money to pay their stars.