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Why did UFC 110 reportedly not draw big on PPV?
By Zach Arnold | March 12, 2010
I’m actually asking this question for real — because the main event was great on paper. It had meaning and significance, too. Plus the news about the show being a sell-out in Australia was known for a couple months. And… the show aired live on PPV (Sunday afternoon Australian time = Saturday night American time), so it wasn’t taped and there weren’t spoilers on the Internet beforehand.
- What does this mean about where Cain Velasquez ranks as a (non) drawing card?
- Did UFC 109 with Coleman vs. Couture really hurt the buyrate this badly? (That would be scary.)
- Has the core PPV buying audience shrunk significantly? (As opposed to just being more selective.)
From the latest edition of The Observer (go subscribe to it if you can):
I don’t have a number of buys, but based on trending data which has historically been pretty accurate, it could be in the 215,000 to 240,000 range, basically along the lines of the tape-delayed foreign shows. This was foreign, but wasn’t tape delayed. One cable industry source gave an estimate of 215,000.
(Update 3/12): UFC’s hype show, part one, for Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, drew a rating somewhere in the 0.8 range. In other words, it was comparable to the rating that Hogan vs. Flair drew in the final quarter-hour of TNA’s Monday Night show. A hype show did better than anything TNA could ever produce on Spike. No surprise, really, but just more affirmation of how smoking hot the UFC New Jersey event will be.
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 48 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
No one cares about Noguiera, Cain, Wanderlei, or Bisping enough to spend $45. That’s all this means. I don’t know why anyone is particularly shocked by this.
When the aussies cant be bothered to care about vancerlei and bisping thats kinda bad IMO. But then again who can ever figure out australians?!
This site is not displaying correctly on FF for some reason so I’m typing blind.
I’m using Firefox and primarily do so. Usually the complaints are the other way around (with those using Internet Explorer).
Speculation on my part, but out of the 30 or so MMA fans I talked to (all of whom are ‘casual’ MMA fans) about 25 of them had NO regard for either Nog or Cain or had to be reminded of who they were. Most of the casual fans I talk to see Nog as washed up and view Cain as generic, among those who knew of them.
Nothing too worrisome in and of itself, imo. They have way too many PPV shows and the novelty factor has worn off for the late converts (post 2005-6).
All of the reasons listed above are correct. Also, as I predicted, the UFC is dealing with the backlash from putting on absolutely shitty cards at 108 and 109 for full price. You fuck with your fans, you give them a shit product, they aren’t gonna stick around and show unyielding loyalty.
This is great news that it did so bad.
The main reason is that it was only 2 weeks after UFC 109. That and a lackluster main event to the casual fans.
The fans have officially given backlash for too many PPV’s. This won’t change their upcoming schedule. It should mean we get one PPV per month during the 2nd half.
This news should also worry Strikeforce. The fact that the UFC floor has sunk could mean the sport has lost the fad fans. I thought it would eventually. I’m not sad if this is also a contributing factor. As long as the sport is just popular enough to make it a solid paying sport for the top athletes….
What are the estimates for UFC 109?
UFC 110 probably tanked for all the reasons above and it only got decent hype on the internet because we remember the glory days for these faded Pride stars, the new fans don’t so there was no emotional investment.
I’m curious is there a report on how UFC 109 did for comparison?.
Regarding how stacked and excited the hardcores were for this event it’s pretty funny in a way that it did worse than the ppv they hated UFC 108. Obviously there seems to be a missing piece between what both fanbases want. Overall it’s disapointing that a quality show like did only did typical tape delay ppv numbers. But without the UFC 109 numbers for comparison right now it’s all speculation really hopefully we can get those numbers soon.
I would say that it is a backlash from the Coleman vs. Couture letdown. Nonetheless, I also believe that it will prove to be one of the most pivotal fights for the future of the Heavy weight division, due to the fact that Velasquez just put the rest of the HW division on notice. From Brock on down, if they don’t up the pace and their cardio capacity they will be punished.
This is also a byproduct of the UFC being forced to dilute their product due to the frequent injury/illness withdrawals of fighters.
[…] were disappointing, wait till you see the estimates for UFC 110’s pay-per-view buy rate. From Fight Opinion via Dave Meltzer: I don’t have a number of buys, but based on trending data which has […]
Most likely they failed because the elvis vs haseman fight fell through.
[…] numerical bad news for the UFC: their last pay per view in Australia is currently being estimated at around 225,000 buys. But again: don’t panic yet, people! Foreign cards historically do a […]
I remember when the UFC came back to the UK from UFC 70 onwards and i saw an interview with a psycologist who commented on the UFC. She attended to see an event and was asked to comment on it’s popularity, while i can’t find what she said using google, it was along the lines of ‘initially the spectacle of fighting in a cage without rules will be a drawing factor, but as the events gain acceptance it will lose this appeal amongst casual fans’.
I thought it made sense… I wouldn’t be suprised if it’s partly this mixed in with other factors.
There we go some real insight into the meteoric rise of MMA. I agree with your comment. In my group of friends, some who have followed MMA from early on, but most just casual, i have noticed a revolving door of sorts. Most just say it gets stale and predictable.
I think it is viewer fatigue. UFC runs way too many shows. So who cares if you miss a couple. They hype all the fights and fighters exactly the same and has too many guys fighting for anyone to keep track of. Also we are in a phase right now where about 85% of the guys fight exactly the same way. A lot of these fights are on repeat. I think that contributesto casual fans getting bored and tuning out.
What’s this all about? Top Rank getting a boost from the UFC?
“Promoter Bob Arum thanked UFC president Dana White for throwing his support behind the fight. Arum said White will be in attendance for Saturday’s fight.
“I am of a generation where mixed martial arts is strange to me. I don’t particularly care for it, but that’s personal taste,” Arum said. “I know that they’ve done a wonderful job promoting it and they’re nice people. I think it’s good that we’re going to help each other.””
http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/03/10/2031066/no-trash-talk-needed-with-nice.html
“And believe it or not, boxing’s biggest rival, the UFC, is helping to promote the event and will have President Dana White and CEO Lorenzo Fertitta in attendance.”
http://www.fightnewsextra.com/cc/2010stories/03-pacfinalpc.htm
This is far more interesting to me than talking about a crappy PPV not having great buyrates. How can this be compared to wrestling? LOL
Their increased output of cards along with their lower than average “star power” line-up w/ lackluster main events has begun to train their fans to buy only the “super-cards” or cards that have the biggest name guys.
People have been mentioning this trend and it’s starting to materialize…of course we’ll just wait for mmalogic to draw us an MSPaint graph that shows we’re stupid and wrong…
Yeah…don’t forget that MMALOGIC actually listed Meltzer as a source, even though many of the numbers didn’t even correspond to Meltzer’s numbers. If you’re going to source something, you have to actually say when/where you got your facts. That shit was straight up embarrassing that people ran with that.
If it’s true, this might bode ill for any foreign cards in the future. Abu Dhabi will be a real test. If that card doesn’t sell, UFC might (and SHOULD) withdraw from the foreign market for live events, or at least for major live events. They might run smaller shows and mine them for tape-delayed Vs. reruns, but putting a lot of effort behind promoting them on US PPV could end.
Going into 110, 3 of the last 4 main events were total duds. As much as Zuffa likes to make the case “it’s the cards you don’t expect to be great that turn out to be great” at $50 a month, now averaging more than once a month, it’s just not worth it, unless the fights have relevance. And there’s just not that much going on that’s relevant without a rankings system and a clear cut way to the title.
There’s plenty of MMA on non-PPV formats so you can get your fight fix. They can only expect people to shell out for relevant fights. Tito vs Forrest 2, Rashad vs Thiago, and Coleman vs Randy aren’t.
The Gaijin is right that by having so many events, they have trained people to only buy the super cards. Which is why they were foolish to do more then 1 PPV per month. They actually hurt their business.
At the end of the day, I still laugh at people like Kid Nate who write
volumes upon volumes as to how the UFC universe is falling. Who knows. It might be. But tell me that AFTER we get the UFC 111 and 112 buyrates. If those cards do under 500,000, then he has a point. If they do good business, then it’s just a sign of the volume an quality of the cards on PPV. Nothing more, nothing less.
To me, as long as we have a maximum of 1 PPV per month and they get from 250,000 (lower end cards) to 500,000+ (higher end cards), I am a happy fan. That is enough to sustain the sport that I love. Enough money for the athletes to keep it functioning. I could care less if the sport is ultra popular.
Exactly – they can turn profits based off ppv buys + gates + merch, with buys in the 200k area if you believe some reports. So maybe they’ve determined they’ll score huge with their “super-cards”, turn profits on their other lesser cards (while saving $ on cheaper salaries) and grow their free-TV cards into some type of a network deal.
As easy as it is to point a finger and chide them for being arrogant or stupid, I’m sure they’re running on a well thought out business plan that they’ve crafted with eyes on the long term. At this point maybe we just aren’t seeing the forest for the trees and in 6-12 months we’ll all be saying how savvy they are again.
I agree, they obviously have a plan.
This is guessing on my part, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of the hang-ups for a network TV deal being that they have never put on such a large number of semi PPV quality cards. It’s hard to go to a network executive and say: “Hey, we want $2 Million per card but can’t prove that is the value.”
By extending their schedule, they have concrete numbers of what a full schedule might look like and then can use the numbers to demand a certain amount per card based on PPV sales.
All I know is that as an end user. The consumer. A dedicated one at that…. Even I have skipped a few cards lately. And that should not be happening for their hardcore fanbase.
I’ve always thought of 2009 as a perfect year for the UFC. To hold them up to that standard now is unrealistic. Just because the bar has been set so high, doesn’t mean it needs to be there for the sport to be successful.
I do think the UFC needs to be on network TV. Or ESPN at the worst. If not, it will constrict the sport and it’s potential for growth. Strikeforce’s CBS deal isn’t the one to progress the sport.
I’d be very interested to see the types of revenues the UFC is generating from these shows (both TV and overseas or “sub-par” PPVs) in terms of “other revenue sources.
Obviously they’re taking a hit in terms of domestic buys for ppv’s, but maybe they’re starting to gain steam w/r/t making money via international TV rights or international ppv rev. (prob not at this point, but just curious). Maybe their overall “global” brand is growing at a rate that’s allowing them to sacrifice some of the top end from the U.S. market and/or the tv deals they’ve got in place with SPIKE and soon with Versus are cushioning the blow. I also like the idea re. consistent schedule in order to show what a show is worth on network tv, though it’s a bit of shooting oneself in the foot by running to a network with relatively deflated numbers.
2010 will bring to light a lot of answers…
Kid Nate trolls his own site since it gets hits.
For what it’s worth, many, many of the fans I spoke to about 110 and a lot of the message board chatter I read indicated that people didn’t think the event was airing live.
Most people couldn’t understand that the event was live because it was ‘overseas’, or that 2pm Sunday afternoon in Oz was 10pm Saturday night in the US. There was certainly some belief that the event was not live, which could have contributed in part to the low numbers.
And now Yahoo MMA is picking up on this story:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Arum-extends-the-olive-branch-to-UFC?urn=mma%2C227473
I don’t think they have a plan; I think they were just ravaged with injuries and continued full-steam ahead instead of doing the responsible thing and consolidating 108 and 109 together to make a legitimate card or canceling both events. They went for short term dollars and didn’t think of long term damage.
UFC Primetime did 1 Million viewers. This PPV is going to do huge numbers.
According to Sherdog, the GSP/Penn countdown did 880,000 viewers plus 614,000 for the first replay. That PPV did 800,000 buys.
I don’t think it’s realistic at all to expect a million or even 900,000 out of 111…but would 750,000-800,000 be out of the question?
GSP is one of their true draws and they’re treating/making him look like one. They’re going to pull mondo buys – not bad for a fight where no one gives his opponent a chance.
I wonder how many minutes it will take for GSP to finish Hardy. I’m guessing 11.
I wouldn’t get too crazy on how big the number is going to be for UFC 111, it will do well but Hardy has no heat and Carwin’s lay off hurt him. Basically this is going to sell on GSP back since Mir isn’t going all out on his end like he did for the Kongo fight. As good as GSP is he isn’t at the level on Lesnar as a draw so while the ppv will do well it’s not going to be on the higher end of buys imo.
To be fair to TNA, UFC’s hype show wasn’t going head to head with WWE programming.
“A hype show did better than anything TNA could ever produce on Spike.” – A 0.8 would be a horrible rating for Impact on Thursday nights. It’s a good number for UFC’s hype show, which will be around a 50 times more effective vehicle for drawing money on PPV than Impact is. But you don’t need the shameless and factually incorrect hyperbole to spin this into a bigger deal than it actually is.
Is there anything anyone can say about UFC 111 that isn’t, “Gee golly I hope it sells a lot of PPVs”? Like, there is nothing else being said. No one is even trying to look at the fights analytically.
Honestly, I don’t hate that this is a title fight, but I do think it sucks that its on PPV. When Roy Jones or Oscar De La Hoya beat up overmatched optional title opponents, at least there was the common decency to have it on HBO. I wish there was an outlet like that for this sort of title bout.
Could have been HBO….*sigh*
I’m sure they have their reasons for not getting the contract with HBO, but how great would it have been for them to be able to put on these sub-par/not quite there PPVs and overseas PPVs/tape-delayed free shows on HBO?
Al,
This is Tyson v Carl The Truth. St. Pierre fights are now packaged as events. Even though he hasn’t had a real exciting fight in a few years. The only analysis you need on this fight is can Hardy catch GSP with a big shot before he gets covered by the elbow blanket.
The GSP marketing is a copy of the Tyson style marketing which copied the Hulkamania marketing. You focus on GSP with a brief mention of how and why the opponent who has lots of muscles and a mean look poses a threat.
I personally don’t see any comparison to Hogan and Tyson: Tyson was a machine that mowed down his competitors and his key selling point was how violent a fighter he was. Hogan was a flag waving superhero beating monsters.
However, this is not to attack your general point. I don’t think anyone in the boxing or mainstream press made it a point to try and promote Don King’s fights for him. When Tyson was set up to demolish folks like Bruno and Williams, its not as if Ring Magazine asked, “But what kind of share will HBO get in the ratings?”
Hardy vs GSP is not interesting to me at all.
The appeal of UFC 111 is simple.
1) GSP
2) Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin as a strong co main event for the casual fans.
3) Thiago Alves vs. Jon Fitch as a strong co main event for the hardcores.
4) GSP shutting up Dan Hardy’s mouth. Even if most people don’t think he is a threat, there is still a great and wonderful satisfaction in watching GSP shut him up. That is a huge selling point.
My guess is between 750,000 and 800,000 buys. I know people are used to 1 Million buys being the new bar. 750,000 is still a monster show.
The hardcores will buy anything though. I don’t think it matters if there’s a “strong bout” for them on the card or not.
Honestly, I don’t know what GSP can do when he’s the primary draw on a card all by his lonesome. I remember that Lesnar drew more traffic at UFC 87, but that was before the Penn and Alves fights, so its probably irrelevant. I’m thinking 650,000, but who knows?
Anything north of 500K is big.
Alan, you can watch all fights on the Internet for free anyway.
Does anyone know what the deal is with the (alleged) UFC show April 17? I’m in Nashville and haven’t bought tickets yet for the Strikeforce show because I don’t know what the UFC show will be, and because I am so disgusted Fedor isn’t going to be fighting that I am not at all excited about the rest of the card, even though it is good. I read yesterday a rumor that Liddell v Franklin was going to be on the UFC April 17 show, but now that is scheduled for later. I wonder if the UFC is even going to hold an April 17 show or if it was all bluster..
Personally, I don’t think the UFC is going to counter. I the threat of countering is doing exactly what is happening with you. Which is reduce the gate. They have never countered a CBS show before with a live card. And they have tons of events around that time to fill.
I have to believe it is in the UFC’s best interests not to counter. Let the Strikeforce ratings do mediocre numbers on their own. Give no excuses to SF when that happens. This will only force Coker to increase the pay of Fedor and M-1 who are holding out for more money. Which will hurt Coker’s bottom line even more.