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Over/under on UFC 104 PPV buy rate — 325,000?
By Zach Arnold | October 23, 2009
Dana White is on a media tear in Southern California right now, trying to get as many asses in the seats as possible at the Staples Center on Saturday night. I’ve never seen UFC in the last couple of years make as big of a push to do ticket giveaways as I have for this show. Don’t get me wrong — on the promoting side of the equation, tickets are currency… but even currency can get devalued over time (like the US dollar is now) when too much is printed and you have hyperinflation. End result? People in the local market might consider showing up if they get a freebie, but they wouldn’t consider paying for a ticket.
Tough sell on Saturday night. Cain Velasquez is being pushed hard as UFC’s next Latino sensation, but he’s not a draw yet and it will take some time.
Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort at UFC 103 drew around 400,000 PPV buys but that’s because Rich Franklin is Rich Franklin. Will people pay to watch Lyoto Machida at UFC 104? Dana White valiantly tries to make the hard sell:
INTERVIEWER: “Let’s quickly talk about the main event. How difficult is it for you as the promoter to sell a fight when both of the main event fighters don’t speak English?”
DANA WHITE: “You know what? People ask me that all the time. We are having no problem at all. The reality is, you don’t show up to hear people talk, OK? When you’re a fight fan, you show up to see great fights. I don’t care if the guy is a mute, OK, I’m not there to hear him talk. If you can find a fighter who has you know he’s a good looking guy, he’s got incredible charisma, he speaks really well, and he’s one of the best fighters in the world, OK, homerun, you know you win. But reality is, people are going to tune in Saturday night to see two of arguably the best strikers in the business, you’re not going to see any wrestling, you’re not going to see any jiu-jitsu, they’re going to see punches, knees, elbows, kicks, it’s going to be a I expect fireworks between those two on Saturday night.”
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 51 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Only the hardest of the hardcores like Lyoto. Meltzer spots it later this week when his sources (coughJoeSilvacough) tell him the buyrate is trending at a *potential* 375,000. Real buyrate; never disclosed. My guess is probably about where you are.
Just because they are giving more tickets away doesnt mean they are struggling.
I dont think the language is a problem at all, these guys are world famous fighers and top of their game. We go to watch a fight not to hear a poem
What did 98 do? I would imagine it would be somewhere withing spitting distance of that, although I guess Hughes/Serra could have helped that show.
347,104 buys is my prediction.
I think it does at least 400,000. Probably closer to 500,000. There hasn’t been any boxing or MMA PPV for over a month. That will help drive up sales.
Is this like the Price is Right, where you’re disqualified if you overbid?
If so I predict 347,105.
Yes it is and you have now blocked me in.
🙁
Or have I blocked you in?
did white just imply wrestling and jiu-jitsu was not exciting?
I go with 300-325,000. It’s not a terrible card, but it could easily be the kind of show they could offer for free on Spike. It’s not worth $45.00 bucks or whatever they charge for a UFC PPV these days.
Not sure Dana should sell this as a potential stand up war. Does he ever try to explicitly sell a main event as a ‘chess match’ or tactical war?
I like the card, but hope they fit some of the dark matches on the show.
I blocked you in! It’s PiR trick where the last person bids $1 more than the highest bid – so if it’s anything over that number he wins.
I honestly can’t make a very educated guess on this because I haven’t done my homework, but I’d reasonably say it could reach 400,000 buys.
OFF TOPIC POST alert:
Fairly decent Mike Brown interview, though Carson, as usual, misses on chances for really good follow up questions: http://carsonscorner.podomatic.com/
Brown “wishes” that the WEC would merge into the UFC, though he doesn’t see it happening anytime soon.
Chris’s prediction of 300-325,000 sounds about right. The casuals are thinking about Lesnar and Ortiz right now. Two Brazilians in a main event, no matter how good the fight is, won’t sell in America without a really strong semi-main event with a big US star. And Velasquez and Rothwell are not that. This is one of those shows that if the main event is good everybody will just check it out before it gets pulled off of YouTube or DailyMotion on Sunday.
I don’t agree with Mark that the Brazilian factor is turning people off. Machida WAS a boring fighter for a while and Shogun has not been promoted much, and hasn’t given anyone a reason to promote him until recently. A year later and this fight could have been a big draw.
The fact is foreign fighters are not popular outside of Georges St. Pierre. And some of the best MMA fighters in the world are Brazilians and it doesn’t matter, UFC fans don’t like them. Nobody has any hopes for Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort. And what if Nogueira fought Gonzaga, that would be a dud. Or what about Thiago vs. Alves. All of those would be pretty good fights but the casuals would ignore them. Americans like watching Americans, it’s the same reason why no matter how good boxing is it’s not as popular here without big names from America.
UFC has shown the way to market fighters is by having them go on Countdown and shit talk and/or show some personality. And it’s very hard to do that with English as your second language or through a translator. And that’s not even counting the xenophobic idiots.
I’d say slightly over 325 K.
A word on the Hendo situation. The only fighters I’d rank above him at either weight class (LHW and MW) are Machida, Anderson Silva, Evans, Griffin and Jackson. He has faced probably the toughest set of opponents out of any fighter in PRIDE or the UFC. The guy’s a veteran and is wrapping up his career, although he’s shown no signs of slowing down.
Should he be the top-paid fighter in the UFC? Of course not. Does he deserve to be among the top 10 or 15 best-paid fighters in the promotion? Sure he does.
Pay the man some respect and sign him to a contract he deserves so he retires with dignity.
Hendo deserves whatever the UFC decides he is, this isn’t a charity and he’s about to find that out the hard way. It’s nice to see that Alan is still living in his delusional fantasy world, nice to know that the more things change the more they stay the same. Anyway I expect the buyrate number for UFC 104 to be around 450k, I think Lyoto is starting to pick up some steam and since it’s a big title fight it will draw more eyeballs than usual.
I’m sure seeing tons of commercials for UFC 104. I don’t watch typical young male demographic stuff and I don’t really watch that much TV anyway, but I sure seem to be running into UFC 104 commercials everywhere I click.
Alan is still living in his delusional fantasy world, nice to know that the more things change the more they stay the same.
A) I wish it was a fantasy! The sport would be better off over the long run.
B) I’ll tell you what; if they authentically did 450K in buys, that would be something to see a largely white middle class 18-34 fanbase come out for a foreigner with a multiracial background, next to no english, and a promotional gimmick of KARATE~. I’d be proud of America and the UFC fanbase for once. But I have very, very little expectation for that.
Oh, BTW, as a side note; Yes, this PPV will make money. Just like HBO boxing PPVs would make money with second tier main events in the middle of the decade (Floyd/Gatti anyone?). But there’s a problem here. See, when you spend time building up your next stars on the undercards of PPV slots like this, no one pays attention. They get lost. I think that will be apparent in the runup to Carwin/Lesnar, as Lesnar’s opponent is going to be totally lost and ignored by the media. Its the same reason why the UFC is still leaning so heavy on Matt Hughes, Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, and other previous generation stars right now. Its a problem that’s slowly manifesting itself…but who cares what I have to say? I was never right immediately! (though then again, I never made predictions for the short term…)
They will comp 4k-5K tickets by the end of the event. That will be abut 33% – 35% of the attendance. You can write that down.
Is Canadian really foreign really? I know technically it is…. But even with his accent, GSP has a very American feel to him. Okay, that sounded a little weird, but you get my point.
“Should he be the top-paid fighter in the UFC? Of course not. Does he deserve to be among the top 10 or 15 best-paid fighters in the promotion? Sure he does.
Pay the man some respect and sign him to a contract he deserves so he retires with dignity.”
You pay Dan Henderson much more, and then about 15 fighters will expect a heafty pay raise.
I swear some people have negative business sense. It’s very very simple. No company in their right mind would substantially up the pay of a guy that has a solid list of peers who would expect the same treatment.
Respect means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING when you have 250 fighters on roster. I’m sure White & Lorenzo would love to be nice to the fighters. But in the REAL WORLD, one stupid blunder like that would cost the company millions each year and potentially send them down a path they could never recover from.
You pay Dan Henderson much more, and then about 15 fighters will expect a heafty pay raise.
As long as Dana and Lorenzo and keep talking about how they’re swimming in money and killing the competition, they’re going to invite more and more and more guys bitching about not making enough. I can’t blame them. If they can get a better deal somewhere else, I say good for them. They gotta eat.
They will comp 4k-5K tickets by the end of the event. That will be abut 33% – 35% of the attendance. You can write that down.
You know what though? The ticket sales are irrelevant in comparison to PPV. As long as people buy it at home enough number that it makes money, the UFC will continue to put on substandard PPVs. That simple. After all, when there end up being like 9 first round KOs or whatever at the end of the show, Iole will spin it as lots of action and everyone will parrot that.
Over.
325k would be a serious lowball number. I think Machida is already bigger with the fans than Anderson Silva.
When all else fails, leak a false story to your favorite press release writer (such as “Henderson on the verge of signing with Strikeforce”).
When that fails, skip the middle-man and just flat-out lie all by yourself:
“”We’re at a stalemate right now,” White said. “The money that [Henderson] is asking for would make him by far the highest-paid guy in the UFC.””
http://mmajunkie.com/news/16585/dana-white-dan-henderson-demanded-to-be-by-far-the-highest-paid-guy-in-the-ufc.mma
If that were true, then it would be a clear indication that he’s not negotiating in good faith. He just wants out of any negotiating obligation he has with UFC per his previous contract.
Who knows what goes on in the minds of some of these guys.
Anthony Johnson came in at 176 pounds. Yoshida accepted the fight. First, Yoshida shouldn’t have accepted it. Second, Johnson needs to move to Middleweight. Lastly, Johnson is EXTREMELY unprofessional.
As for Dan Henderson….
At first I thought like Ivan did…. That it was impossible. Then I read what mmalogic said…. And while it isn’t a 100% credible…. It at least makes sense if true:
“The thing is Dan is thinking he settled for less than he should have on his last contract so he wants to add the difference to this contract…”
He also went on to say that his contract would go by beating Marquardt and then go up even more if he beat Silva. But he wants it all guaranteed.
A week ago (and you can check past FO posts to verify), I said that the UFC might be using Dan Henderson to see what SF does. Looks like I was right:
“sometimes you place a pawn out in the open to see if the other side is willing to expose themselves and lose their queen…”
Either way, Henderson has such little leverage it isn’t even funny….
Dana White is talking out of his ass again. Does anyone really think that Henderson is asking for more than everyone else, or is it more likely that he’s lying (see also: “Cro-Cop lied to me!”)?
Whatever little leverage Henderson has he has to work. If he follows mmalogic’s advice he’ll be dead ass broke unless he miraculously starts beating guys at 40 no one thinks he can actually top.
Alan,
You have mentioned him being broke. And you also mentioned that he has to eat.
You do realize that in terms of income, Dan Henderson is closer to the top of the food chain of all Americans. Neither should be an issue. Off of UFC 100 fight, he should have been able to pay off at least 50% of a nice house. So let’s all worry about Dan Henderson making another $250,000 a fight…. Sorry if I don’t worry about him or Rampage putting food on the table.
His next $250K as a fighter could well be his last. He’s 39 and isn’t fighting creme puffs. He loses to Nate and he’s not making 6 figures anywhere for anyone, he’s still not fighting creme puffs, and he isn’t any more likely to rebound at an advanced age to make that kind of money again. Then we end up hearing about him being like Riddick Bowe in 10 years doing autographs at swap meets or Ken Shamrock doing seminars at ICP’s open air festival.
Obviously you don’t care if Henderson, Rampage, Silva, or whoever else has issues with what they get paid. I get that you only care about these guys when they’re beating the crap out of each other. But they gotta look out for themselves. If someone was making 10 times what I was off my name and my personal risk, I’d want a piece of that money too. Especially if I was getting old.
Is Dan Henderson handicap? Is he unable to work after fighting? Fighting has given him more money then the vast majority of Americans will make. And he still has 15 years to work in some capacity to make more money.
Rampage and Silva have both likely made over $1 Million for at 1 fight alone. So no, I do not feel sorry for them. Not in the slightest. If Rampage files for bankruptcy 10 years from now, it will have zero correlation with what Zuffa paid him. People who can’t budget their money are doomed no matter how much they make.
As for Henderson getting old…. That actually makes it even less likely he is going to get a big money offer. MLB players typically sign the longest and most profitable contracts of their career between the ages of 25 and 32. When that contract expires and they are in their late 30’s, they typically get a smaller offer.
And the UFC is making 10 times the amount off of Dan Henderson’s name? You have to be kidding me.
Go put Dan Henderson on PPV without the UFC name…. See how many PPV buys he can get by being a headliner. That is his real worth. And what he is getting is comparable to that….
45 – WTF is with you constantly quoting mmalogic? He may have some decent ideas/interesting thoughts on topics, but you quote him as if he’s Jesus Fertitta himself and not just another pro-Zuffa flag waver. Just bc he says something doesn’t make it reality, he’s merely speculating like the rest of us.
I know you want to be this guy (weird) but stop quoting him like some sort of inside concrete source.
Is Dan Henderson handicap? Is he unable to work after fighting?
A) Odds are good that he’ll be cognitively impaired.
B) Does it really help your argument to say that Dan Henderson could go work on the docks after making tens of millions of dollars for someone else?
Rampage and Silva have both likely made over $1 Million for at 1 fight alone. So no, I do not feel sorry for them. Not in the slightest. If Rampage files for bankruptcy 10 years from now, it will have zero correlation with what Zuffa paid him.
Again; I get that you feel that way. They don’t in so much as they know what money is being generated by their fights and what percentage they pull down.
BTW, making $2 or $3 mil in over the course of a career is not that much compared to the average American’s career earnings.
And the UFC is making 10 times the amount off of Dan Henderson’s name?
Yes. If Hendo makes 400K off under the table pay and official money, while the UFC makes 4 million off PPV buys/tickets/international TV/advertising for a second rate PPV like UFC 93, that’s a factor of 10. And probably likely.
Go put Dan Henderson on PPV without the UFC name…. See how many PPV buys he can get by being a headliner. That is his real worth. And what he is getting is comparable to that….
No one has any idea what that number actually is, in spite of all their talk, because the promotions on CBS have never made the transition to running PPVs. Strikeforce seems the most likely to actually succeed at that. At that point, I’m willing to reopen that line of discussion.
“when his sources (coughJoeSilvacough) ”
Joe Silva is not his source. His sources are inside the PPV industry. They are the same sources he uses for reporting WWE buy rates.
You really think Henderson is going to be impared enough not to work? You are stretching. And I wasn’t refering to him doing a manual labor job. He could do seminars. He could be a coach. He could do a lot of things still within MMA and make a solid living at it.
“BTW, making $2 or $3 mil in over the course of a career is not that much compared to the average American’s career earnings.”
Do you really think Rampage is only going to take home $3 Million from his entire fight career? He has been getting PPV bonuses since UFC 71. If he didn’t take home at least $5 Million at the very very minimum over his entire career, I would be shocked.
You are under the premise that the UFC needs to basically fund these fighters retirements. It’s a false premise to be under as the UFC has really no obligation. This isn’t baseball or the NFL where the athletes basically have a direct, day-to-day relationship with the team for 9 months a year. A baseball player with a 15 year career put in a calculated 11.25 years of service into baseball. That is over a decade.
These are MMA guys who come in, do 2 to 4 fights a year, have some publicity on top of that… And that is basically it.
This idea that the UFC should make sure they have enough money until they die is typical of this generation. People feel a sense of entitlement. They aren’t entitled to ANYTHING. I’m not a fan of the way big business operates in this country. But to think anybody is responsible for a fighter to be financially stable to the day they die is unrealistic and just stupid.
Let’s assume a fighter takes a 3 month training camp for each fight. And that fight had 20 fights for the UFC. That is 60 months or so of their life that can actually be calculated towards putting towards the UFC. That is 5 years of actual service. That’s not much time. In between this, they have the ability to make money off of seminars, advertising on their shorts, and whatever other way they can find a source of income. So it’s not like Johnny 9 to 5 or basically is only able to have one source of income.
You want the UFC to be responsible for them all the way through retirement for a maximum of 5 years of real calculated service? God, I hope you never open a business. It would fail before you sold your first product.
As for SF and CBS… You are stretching if you really think they could take Dan Henderson on a PPV and get even 150,000 PPV buys. And that is with Fedor as the co-main event.
Joe Silva is not his source. His sources are inside the PPV industry. They are the same sources he uses for reporting WWE buy rates.
Hahahahaha, yeah, sure. Not like Dave would get numbers from guys in the WWE, right?
Silva and Meltzer are buddies and have been so for a long time. I don’t know if that always makes Silva his source, but they are really good friends.
You really think Henderson is going to be impared enough not to work?
No one has any idea what shape Hendo’s gonna be in 15 years from now. Guess what will be paying his bills then? Fights now.
As for coaching or seminars, man, I’ve heard that excuse for every fighter that’s ever been in the UFC. That’s gonna be a rude awakening for some. Not that you care, of course.
Do you really think Rampage is only going to take home $3 Million from his entire fight career? He has been getting PPV bonuses since UFC 71. If he didn’t take home at least $5 Million at the very very minimum over his entire career, I would be shocked.
He might have made $5 million. How much of it has he seen? How much of it is already tied up in all his kids? How are the payments structured based on his potential earnings as an MMA fighter? None of that matters to you. He makes enough, far as you’re concerned, and if he chooses to deny you your apparently intrinsic right to see him fight in a cage for your pleasure in an attempt to renegotiate, he’s an awful person and bad for the sport. Again: I get it. This is about you.
This idea that the UFC should make sure they have enough money until they die is typical of this generation. People feel a sense of entitlement.
The feeling of entitlement is yours, and that is very clear.
Silva and Meltzer are buddies and have been so for a long time. I don’t know if that always makes Silva his source, but they are really good friends.
Before Silva was with the UFC, in fact.
Funny fact for the day:
-Did you know that Dave Meltzer is actually convinced that the UFC’s lighter weight classes exist and are promoted based on Joe Silva having liked the early 90s J-Cups? Now you know!
“How much of it is already tied up in all his kids?”
If I have 5 kids and the guy doing the same job sitting next to me has none… do i get more money? Nope. That’s a Rampage problem. Pay should have absolutely nothing to do with that.
“The feeling of entitlement is yours, and that is very clear.”
You believe that UFC Fighters are entitled to make enough money in a short time frame to live comfortably the rest of their lives without working again. That is exactly what entitlement is. It’s not my thoughts…
Here’s another fun fact for the day:
HDNet Fights president Guy Mezger nearly became Tiger Mask in 2002. He verbally agreed to it, but it never was followed up on.
Over. I say it does 375k like the last one.
I’m totaly with 45 in the sense that the UFC (or any company for that matter) does not owe it’s employees a living beyond what they earn while they work.
Nobody is holding a gun to anyones head in the free world; if you’re not happy with the amount you are paid, you’re free to negotiate or seek employment elsewhere. Thats what Rampage has done, thats what Hendo is trying (less successfully) to do.
It doesn’t matter if a fighter earns $5mil or $5k in their career; how they provide for themselves in later life is their problem, not their employers.
Pay should have absolutely nothing to do with that.
Nor does it. You aren’t even arguing the basis of this.
You believe that UFC Fighters are entitled to make enough money in a short time frame to live comfortably the rest of their lives without working again. That is exactly what entitlement is.
Clearly the income is there for them to do so, and they have all the right in the world to protest, negotiate, or look elsewhere to take more money. The issue is that you’d much prefer they not have that luxury at all. You certainly voice enough displeasure about the entire process.
Nobody is holding a gun to anyones head in the free world; if you’re not happy with the amount you are paid, you’re free to negotiate or seek employment elsewhere. Thats what Rampage has done, thats what Hendo is trying (less successfully) to do.
Who is arguing that point?
BTW, LOL at everyone just assuming that Hendo has “failed” at negotiating. Why shouldn’t he go test the waters elsewhere? Because its inconvenient for moron fantasy booking? Let him ask around about money and if it turns out that the UFC’s offer is the biggest one present, he can go take it and it will likely take no time off his career.
Some of the top fighters live the Ric Flair lifestyle and we’re supposed to feel pity for them when they have no savings to show for their careers?
I’m guessing UFC needs to pay fighters more than Tyson, Holyfield and Mayweather made in their primes? Because despite the money those guys made it wasn’t enough and they’re still broke.
http://www.heavy.com/post/exclusive-anthony-johnson-interview-1100/
Alan,
You are getting tripped up on your own words here. You said:
“He might have made $5 million. How much of it has he seen? How much of it is already tied up in all his kids? How are the payments structured based on his potential earnings as an MMA fighter? None of that matters to you.”
You are trying to justify him needing more money because he has too many kids or he hasn’t seen all of the money because he is bad with money.
“Clearly the income is there for them to do so, and they have all the right in the world to protest, negotiate, or look elsewhere to take more money.”
But here is the thing…. How do you know this? How do you know the UFC can afford a pay increase to Rampage or Silva or Henderson? This just isn’t $500,000 to $2 Million per fight increase we are talking about.
It is a $10 and $25 Million increase in revenues per year for each level. Here is the proof:
You give Dan Henderson an extra $500,000 per fight (consider the signing bonus as part of that increase). At 3 fights a year, that is an increase of $1.5 Million. Now multiple that by every other contender who is at his same level. You are already talking over $10 Million.
Then look at the main event guys. Increase each of their stars by $1 Million. Let’s say on average they fight 2.5 times a year and they have 10 stars. That is $25 Million increase.
So already without anything thinking at all on your part, you have proposed an additional expense of to Zuffa of $35 Million a year.
You don’t think that would happen? Look at Rampage. He saw all the big money the long time stars got and he is pissed he didn’t get it.
So for you to say “clearly the income is there”…. Shows you don’t know what you are talking about.
I don’t know why you even try going back and forth with Alan, 45 Huddle it’s a waste of time. The guy has proven he has no clue what he is talking about and is too busy with his conspiracy theories about Meltzer and The UFC to know facts if they punched him in the face. Just ignore him and try and have a conversation with someone who isn’t living in their own fantasy world.
You are trying to justify him needing more money
I don’t need to justify anything to prove that Rampage should act in his own best interest. You’re trying to prove otherwise.
But here is the thing…. How do you know this? How do you know the UFC can afford a pay increase to Rampage or Silva or Henderson?
Because they are clearly making enough money to? Because they’re gloating about making so much money?
So already without anything thinking at all on your part, you have proposed an additional expense of to Zuffa of $35 Million a year.
And? They bring in far more than that. The alternative is more UFC 104s. Guess which I as a fan prefer?