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UFC 8/29 Rose Garden in Portland
By Zach Arnold | August 29, 2009
Dark matches
- Middleweights: Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz
- Heavyweights: Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee
- Heavyweights: Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow
- Heavyweights: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer
- Middleweights: Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson
Main card
- Light Heavyweights: Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
- Middleweights: Nathan Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
- Middleweights: Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
- Light Heavyweights: Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
- Heavyweights: Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Event reports: USA Today | AOL Fanhouse | Jake Rossen | Sherdog | MMA Weekly | MMA Junkie | Steve Cofield | Bryan Alvarez
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 83 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
A lot of interesting fights on the card when it comes to “who is next for a title shot?”
I’d appreciate Nogueira getting past Couture just for possible future matches. But I don’t see it happen.
Silva vs. Jardine definitley makes for a good fight and an action packed standup war.
Marquardt vs. Maia also looks very promising. I expect Marquardt to keep the fight standing but with two jiu jitsu black belts you never know.
In the four fights I think are competitive and that I care about, I have Vera, Marqhardt, Silva, and Noguiera. I worry a little about the Marqhardt fight that he may just do nothing when it hits the ground and jab his way to winning. Silva I expect to jump on Jardine. There’s gonna be a huge disparity talent wise for Vera/Soszynski, and the one thing everyone will talk about after this is that Couture is finally old (as if it isn’t utterly apparent).
From MMA Payout:
“A story that’s seemingly flown right under the radar the last couple weeks is the fact that the UFC is having trouble selling tickets for its 102 event to be held at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon. The venue holds nearly 20,000 people for an MMA event, but has sold just over 9,000 tickets to date.”
http://mmapayout.com/2009/08/ufc-102-far-from-sold-out-economy-taxes-problematic/
Hard to believe a UFC event can’t sell out with Randy Couture in the main event?
While Couture/Nogueira is interesting, it’s a few years too late…and realistically, the winner will NOT get a title fight. It’s basically a ‘loser should retire’ fight.
Silva/Jardine is basically a fight to determine who’s the #10 ranked guy in the LHW division. Both seem light years away from contention, so only a highlight reel KO from one of them will really make a measurable difference.
Same goes for Vera/Soszynski.
Marquardt/Maia might set up for a new MW contender vs. A.Silva, but at this point I can’t see anyone aside from Machida having a prayer against him (at either MW or LHW).
Main events should be 5 rounds.
They set prices way too high, Vegas prices won’t fly in Portland.
Lot of good HW talent on this card.
As previously stated: I’m taking Noguiera and Marqhardt. I think the running talking points coming out of this event are:
-Nate is never getting a title shot because he’s willing to win ugly rather than flame out impressively in a loss
-Couture is old
-Noguiera might still have it
-Tim Hague is a legit prospect
-There’s no fights that make sense with Jardine (win/lose/draw) other than a Forrest Griffin rematch
-Brandon Vera is willing to win looking ugly and he won’t get a title shot either
-Chris Leben wins another Fight of The Night; displays zero skill
Oh, buyrate: 425K. Some complaining about this in a couple weeks because it doesn’t meet the expectations of other shows.
Marquardt
Couture
Under 550,000 easy.
Plus, it is 3 weeks after the last PPV. Can’t imagine too many people double dipping for this card. Even at 400,000 that should be considered a success, but won’t be because of the last two buyrates.
Random Item: The UFC signed Jared Hamman. I thought that guy was part of the deal from EliteXC to Strikeforce.
I don’t think he can be a top contender in the UFC, but he seemed good for Strikeforce to try and build up into a potential title contender.
Couture via decision 29-28
Marquardt via TKO Rd 2.
Isn’t MMA Payout calling for a humongous buyrate, like 800,000 – 900,000?
Nog wins by KO.
I’m worried that Marquardt/Maia will be boring. Hope Nate comes out aggressive. I hope Maia wins. I see him winning via strikes. UFC needs to move Anderson out of 185. What Re they going to do have him clean out the division a second time?
I bet the show does better than 550,000. Maybe not by too much though. 6-700k. Randy has lost his shine. But this card is full of fights that if they were in boxing would be HBO Main Events. Every fight on the main card is a fun matchup. There are some undercard fights I’m looking forward too as well.
Over
MMAPayout is in a strange spot. They are controlled/influenced by Randy’s agent. So they have to make it look like Randy is a big deal but also want to take shots at UFC. Thus the two stories Randy will draw unrealistic numbers on TV and UFC didn’t do a good job promoting the live event.
This entire card has the potential to be boring. It’s a weird card. It has a lot of 50/50 pick’em fights between high level fighters. And yet I’m not overly excited about it.
I’m actually more interested in watching the 3 Heavyweight Prelim fights to see how these up & coming prospects do.
My guess for buyrate is 400,000.
Couture by Rd 3 TKO or UD
Marquardt by UD
Roshold by controversial SD (due to L&P)
And I’ll go out on a limb and take Jardine by T/KO, standing over a fallen Silva and pounding away.
I think of of how Jardine finished Griffin, and the way Machida finished Silva and I can picture something similar happening. I consider Silva unproven and overhyped, with his greatest wins being over Houston Alexander and James Irvin, not exactly stellar competition. And Jardine is very inconsistent but I think he is due for a good win.
Buyrate: below 550K
Couture wins, R2 TKO.
At this point Noguaira doesn’t have the power or speed to KO or TKO Couture, Randy doesn’t seem to cut easily, and I don’t think Nog can submit him.
Randy is sharp in the clinch and has the skill to take down Lesnar – he won’t have trouble wrestling old Nog to the mat.
Marquardt wins, unanimous 30-27 decision.
Marquardt is great, but he’s pretty conservative in most situations. He’ll be wary of being caught in a submission, so he’ll likely play it safe with a GSP-style gameplan. Tight ground’n’pound from a closed or half guard, with Maia trying some slick submissions from the bottom but getting closed down.
Randy’s name will guarantee at least 500,000 buys.
I’ll guess they might squeak over the 550 mark and hit 600k.
Nog by submission.
Marquardt my decision due to experience.
400,000 – 500,000 PPV buys
I think every fight on the main card is going to go to decision.
I am more excited for this card than for the last one in my home town, despite the title fight we had. The top three fights on this card are fantastic.
I am certain….certain that Cristof beats Vera.
I think/hope Nog subs Couture; I don’t think Randy is anywhere near Nog’s level on the ground.
I expect Vera to clobber the Polish guy whose name I can’t spell. Vera is really inconsistent and not particularly tough, but I think he is just going to outskill his opponent and knock him out brutally, especially given Kristoff’s(sp) wide open stance that leaves him open for head kicks.
I am picking Maia over Marquardt. I take someone world-class at one aspect and decent at other over someone well rounded but not spectacular at anything.
I am picking Jardine because Silva sucks, but Jardine is sloppy and could get KTFO, even though Silva isn’t particularly good at anything.
I predict Leben/Rosholt to be Fight of the Night. Two free swingers with no defense.
Under. Not too much hype about this card other than how old will Randy or Nog look.
The Polish guy whose name you can’t spell (Soszynski) is Canadian. I’m pretty sure he’s going to kick Vera’s ass.
I’m hoping that there will be some room on the PPV and that some of the heavyweight fights on the undercard will be short and worthy of PPV replays.
1) Nogueira and Maia
2) Over.
Vera is going to own Krystof.
Krystof has fought lesser competition than Vera and even against that lower level of competition hasn’t fared as well record-wise as Vera. Of their common opponents (Reese Andy and Whitehead) Vera is 2-0 and K.S. is 0-2. I know this isn’t mmath, but 2 of Vera’s losses were to the (at the time in Sylvia’s case) upper-crust of HW fighters, and the other was a close split decision to a guy in Jardine who has beaten 2 UFC champions and almost beat a third in Rampage. I just don’t think K.S. is on his level on the feet and I don’t think he can take Vera down. That being said, I hope Im wrong because Vera pisses me off with the way he wastes his talent because he is so mentally weak.
Nogueira wins. He looked to be back in good shape and had some pep in his step that I haven’t seen for a few years. That loss looks to have put a fire under his behind.
“Nogueira wins. He looked to be back in good shape and had some pep in his step that I haven’t seen for a few years. That loss looks to have put a fire under his behind.”
That’s what many said about Chris Byrd when he went down to light heavyweight. You know what happened? He lost to fringe contender Shaun George by KO.
Shuan George has more going for him in boxing these days than Randy does in MMA.
I actually watched Shaun George on his way up back in NY. All the tools in the world. Bully mentality. As soon as things went not according to plan he looked for a way out. They were building him as the next Mike Tyson/Riddick Bowe/Shannon Briggs because he’s from Brownsville too.
Shaun had his way early and became unstoppable. He has all the attributes to be champion.
That aside out of the way, Nog beats Randy. He’ll be able to weather everything Randy has and either land a clean shot to Randy’s chin or catch him in an Anaconda choke.
Nog
Maia
600k
Couture – Nog’s striking looked abysmal against Sylvia and Mir, and I have to put more weight on recent performances than hoping Nog suddenly has a late-career striking renaissance and turns into ’04 Nog. He looks good at weigh-ins though, so who knows.
Marquardt – I think it goes down like Hendo/Palhares.
Over – I’d expect about 450-500k normally, but I think there’s a little momentum from 100 and 101 still, so I think it’ll break 550k (but not by much).
Randy will win via Decision
Maia will submit Marquardt after doing surprisingly well on his feet.
Buyrate will come it just over 500k, but below 550k.
That was a more than a little mediocre way to start the night. Hopefully it will get better.
James, sorry about that. Something surprising on the feet, but not what you wanted.
The Marquardt/Maia KO looked like something out of the movies with the way Maia went airborne.
Anderson Silva should fight Dan Henderson in November, and likely have Nate wait for the winner of that fight.
Unless Silva doesn’t want to do rematches, in that case, he needs to vacant the title now so we can have Henderson/Marquardt for the title.
Pretty impressive.
Well, looks like Marquardt will be next in line for a middleweight title shot. Either next or after Henderson. It seems like (I’m not watching the fights) he caught Maia with a counter shot and KAYOED Maia in 21 seconds.
“Unless Silva doesn’t want to do rematches, in that case, he needs to vacant the title now so we can have Henderson/Marquardt for the title.”
And possibly have Yushin Okami against the winner of that fight.
I would love to see Henderson-Marquardt for the chance to face Silva.
I dislike re-matches in general, and especially in Silva’s case where there are so many exciting fights at LHW.
Beautiful arm triangle! I’ve always thought they should try to be used more.
Impressive heart by Rosholt. Still lacks average striking skills….
Chris Leben should be cut by the UFC, but won’t be. After starting off 5-0, he has gone 3-5 since then.
Kimbo Slice…. The Toughest Guy at the BBQ. I’m the toughest guy at Comic Con 3 years running!!!
I’d rather see Duffee fight Fedor. I would give him a better show at winning then Brett Rogers.
I know its always good to see knockouts but man is it too much to ask for guys to not leave themselves wide open. Some of it just looks amateurish.
Let’s not get too excited, I think the key here was Hague’s poor striking defense, as pointed out by Rogan – wild punch, arm down, chin up, rushing forward.
lol man, fucking Hague. He is like this big, lumbering, Canadian version of Tim Sylvia.. Except you feel bad seeing him getting beaten up.
So far some serious mediocre fighting. There is nothing spectacular about a quick KO when your opponent gets KOed by the first punch (jab) that lands and if you are Maia and you inexplicably jump in like that with your chin exposed when you are kicking.
Disappointed about Maia, that was on paper the fight of the PPV. The one thing I liked about Maia in the past was that he was a world class grappler who never tried to “stand and bang”, he does a little of it tonight and gets destroyed.
Good to see the steroid cheat Chris Leben lose, guys like him and Jardine make me question why I even bother to watch this sport. Credit to Keith for fighting top opponents, but his fighting style makes me cringe, its even worse that he wins against some of those top fighters.
The Jardine fight will either be really short or a sloppy mess that lasts the distance.
+1 for “really short.”
Well at least it was short LOL.
But again its the result of piss poor striking. I don’t expect boxing/kickboxing level striking skills, but come on, these guys have been training for years and this is the best they got?
That was the best round of the night.
I hope Herman is OK.