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The obligatory “will it or won’t it” post on Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar II
By Zach Arnold | March 6, 2009
It was set to happen this May, but Sam Caplan said not so fast my friend. MMA weekly says that the focus is on the knee, not Mir’s back. MMA Mania says that it was minor knee surgery.
Dana White, through Kevin Iole, is claiming ignorance currently as to what is happening. Dave Meltzer says that it’s a touch-and-go situation.
Update (3/7): The fight appears to be probably postponed until the Summer. July in Las Vegas at UFC 100 (with Georges St. Pierre on the card) probably makes the most sense at this point.
Topics: Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 31 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
The winner of Carwin/Gonzaga could end up being the #1 contender. That would be my guess.
If Mir is injured, I hope that he doesn’t feel pressured into fighting before he is ready. Delaying the fight until the July 11th card sounds like it might be the best course of action if Mir is not even going to be able to train for the next 4-6 weeks.
[…] Zach Arnold at Fight Opinion has collected a number of the conflicting reports on Mir’s ability to fight as […]
If Mir/Lesnar 2 is going to be at UFC 100….
I say put on Evans/Machida in May… Give Jackson/Jardine the proper time to heal up, and have them fight the champion in September.
To me, that makes the most sense in this situation.
If they’re interested in the bottom line, it doesn’t seem to matter what the main event is. Hell, they could even put on something like Jardine vs. Rampage…. oh, wait.
Time to have a contender tournament in the heavyweights. UFC should announce tonight that Gonzaga vs Carwin is a first round fight, with the next one happening at the next show (or something). Put the contender fight on the same card as Mir vs Lesnar, and you’re ready to go.
Ok, Kongo vs Hardonk is already scheduled for 97, so that’s good enough. Then you have the expectation of a Gonzaga vs Kongo fight for the number one contender, and you can use the benefits of that huge card to advertise the next HW belt fight.
“Ok, Kongo vs Hardonk is already scheduled for 97, so that’s good enough. Then you have the expectation of a Gonzaga vs Kongo fight for the number one contender, and you can use the benefits of that huge card to advertise the next HW belt fight.”
This makes no sense. Why would you expect Kongo to beat Hardonk? Why would Kongo be anywhere near a title shot anyway even if he did? What about Herring, who already beat Kongo? And Valasquez who beat O’Brien who beat Herring?
To me this illustrates the problem of running PPV every month. Imagine if Rampage or Jardine got hurt last week or two weeks ago. I think UFC would be smart to move their business model to 6 huge PPV cards and 6 network tv cards. Tonights event would be perfect on network TV. It builds up top guys at 155, 205 and Heavyweight. But it’s not worth 50 bucks and I won’t be paying for it.
What I forgot to mention is that if you have a low buy rate on the PPV you waste an opportunity to promote top contenders. You want as many people as possible to see Gonzaga/Carwin if it is exciting.
Kongo has already been rumored as nearing a title shot. If he doesn’t win, then it’s no skin. I don’t have an opinion on who is going to beat who, but to keep interest going, I think it’s important to simultaneously be ‘determining’ a ‘number one contender’ if you’re going to be living in a world of uncertainty like this.
My February 28th synthetics came up with the following UFC only HW Top 10:
Nogueira
Ciesnolevicz
Mir
Werdum (he’s sticky because he hasn’t fought anywhere else, obviously not under contract)
Carwin
Couture
Herring
Gonzaga
Struve (sounds like he’s in option land right now, so maybe he doesn’t count either)
Kongo
Two more for good measure:
dos Santos
Reljic (with Velasquez right behind)
Hardonk isn’t a “worthy” contender, but I do trust that he would be weeded out, and if he managed to win two in a row against synthetic top10 guys, then he would have improved his rating enough that he would be a worthy contender when he fought the winner of Lesnar vs Mir.
Guy’s already got three wins in a row, and he would have five in a row by the time he got there, which is the whole point of setting up number one contender brackets like this, to build up someone, anyone, with more than two wins in a row so that they can challenge the titleholder.
I guess it’s pointless to point out that my synthetics are showing Lesnar at 21 because he’s unratable right now (the rematch against Mir should help, but fighting ANYONE would because he doesn’t have enough fights to rate).
I dont know, but for some reason I dont really care all that much either.
I’m not really all that antsy about mir/brock.
I honestly feel like I can wait until they get around to it without feeling any anxiety or discomfort.
This was on Cage Potato (http://www.cagepotato.com/update-frank-mir’s-camp-asked-ufc-not-announce-lesnar-fight-ufc-98):
“Sources tell us that Mir’s camp asked the UFC not to announce the fight earlier this week since the champ had just had knee surgery that would prevent him from training other than on a treadmill or in a pool for 4-6 weeks. The UFC apparently ignored these wishes and announced the fight anyway, which they’ll probably have to scrap if they can’t convince Mir that it’s no biggie for him to be unable to train before the biggest fight of his life.”
6 PPV’s, and 6 Network TV Shows is a little too much in the other direction. I think Zuffa would be better off having a 2:1 PPV to Network TV ratio.
Every 3 months, they have 2 PPVs & 1 Network Show. They have enough talent to do such a thing.
Meltzer reports (and he would know since he is close with Zuffa mangement):
“At press time, nothing is official and the possibility remains that the fight is still on. I would guess UFC will do whatever they can to try to pressure him into fighting on schedule since tickets for the show went on sale Thursday and thousands and thousands of fans purchased specifically to see that fight.”
According to the Cage Potato article, they put the tickets for Lesnar-Mir on sale knowing that Mir was injured.
PS: Network TV deals? They can’t sign a network TV deal because that would require giving up their pro wrestling-style control of the production, and besides, those three-year, $25-million network TV deals are real company killers.
I sense the sarcasm in Ivan’s post.
So far MMA is 0-2 on Network TV. So Zuffa hasn’t looked stupid in not signing those deals. The rumors about $25 Million for Strikeforce really doesn’t mean much. It is going to cost a lot of money to put these events on, so it is still an unknown factor of whether or not Strikeforce can run at a profit on the national stage.
Why the hell would they sign a network deal where you have to give away your biggest fights just to get the ratings that can keep you on air? They are setting all sorts of records for themselves. This is like google being told that all they need is to follow the UAW union model for their employees, and until they do they can’t really achieve any progress. It has to be the most insane and absurd business logic ever.
The control over production is a minor issue that was not the real reason they never did network deals. It’s just a convenient thing to harp on, a lame talking point. The real problem is the networks aren’t willing to cough up the money UFC wants to justify giving away huge main events on TV and compromising their entire PPV model.
Also, referring to WWE style production somehow assumes the alternative is legitimate. How much more legit would the UFC be if they had someone like Gus Johnson screaming “ROCKY IS HERE!!!!!” like a complete moron.
EliteXC & The IFL were basically like infomercials on TV. They were paying for their TV spots. It is very likely that the UFC got the same type of offer. So for them to put on cards with $1 Million payrolls (which they would have to do on network TV), they would have huge money loses. Of course, I wouldn’t expect Ivan to say that, because he just seems to want to point out all the negatives about Zuffa.
I thought Mauro, despite being paid by CBS, was much more of a cheerleader for EliteXC then Rogan has ever been. And Gus wasn’t very good. He has a nice professional voice that Rogan and even Goldberg to an extent lacks, but his commentary during Seth/Kimbo was at a near pathetic level. I actually think he is a nice guy, but we as fans deserve better then true novists commentating our sport. And that is exactly what he is at this point. He could improve, but that is yet to be seen.
Right now, with the way the sport is set up, it is nearly impossible for any announcer, no matter who they are being compensated by, to not be at least slightly a cheer leader for their organization. It is human nature. It is different for Pro Sports, because they are the only league promoting that sport on a major level. So there is no inferiority complex or Us vs. Them type of mentality.
As for the UFC putting tickets on sale when they knew Mir as injured…. They could be a major issue. If he was injured but said he could still fight, then the UFC did the right thing. If he said he probably could NOT fight, and Zuffa still put the tickets on sale, that is very wrong, and is not exceptable. Somebody needs to investigate this issue further with a nice solid interview (and very precise questions) with Frank Mir.
The interview with Dana on fox yesterday, where someone asked him, he said he didnt know and if its true he is going to go put his head through a wall. He did look shocked. I’m interested to know who was told what and when, and who is just trying to maneuver to look good.
UFC is hot right now. But is still a fringe sport. I also hasn’t shown any stating power yet as I is still the hot new thing. Look a Pro Wrestling in the mid to late 90s. Those guys thought the run would never end. But it did. It costs $600 per year to buy all the UFC events. You are going to start seeing buyer fatigue. Network TV allows you to build an audience and stars. Tinighta cars is the type you’d likely see. Also UFC should get a lot more than the other companies. They already make money on each event at the gate. Use the network shows to build the business and PPV stars.
“and besides, those three-year, $25-million network TV deals are real company killers.”
That $25 million has to be spread out between 48 shows that Strikeforce are contracted to run in those three years which averages out to half a million dollars per show.
Contrast that to the rumoured $100 million Spike TV paid for UFC TV rights 2008-2011.
The control over production is a minor issue that was not the real reason they never did network deals. It’s just a convenient thing to harp on, a lame talking point. The real problem is the networks aren’t willing to cough up the money UFC wants to justify giving away huge main events on TV and compromising their entire PPV model.
Those two things are directly connected, and you’d be blind not to see it. Seriously, you think the UFC is afraid to give up the megabuys of UFC 93 or tonight’s show for network exposure if they could get to run the production?
Contrast that to the rumoured $100 million Spike TV paid for UFC TV rights 2008-2011.
1) The UFC should be able to command more money; they’re the biggest promotion out there.
2) The money being paid to Strikeforce should be less: CBS/Showtime isn’t paying them for the same amount of crap, since Strikeforce isn’t producing the shows themselves nor creating multiple seasons of reality TV annually.
3) Even if Strikeforce is giving back half of their money per “major show” to CBS/Viacom, they’re still getting paid more per event than anyone is to run Showtime Championship Boxing or, for that matter, the majority of HBO World Championship Boxing cards get back. Those promoters have way higher payrolls and somehow make money. Maybe it has to do with not spending over a million on social networking websites? Not blowing tons of money on lol-worthy corporate payrolls? Not vastly overpaying for a bunch of crappy MMA promotions and their video libraries? Take your pick.
Well, considering that UFC 93 got 350,000 buys…. And lets say they get 50% of the PPV Price… they got about $7.5 Million for that event from PPV alone. That’s a lot of money to give up.
And I think it is more then just control and you know it. It has to do with how the networks are handling the sport. EliteXC (and I assume Strikeforce) is being handled by the same people who are concerned with Survivor and Two & A Half Men. It isn’t their sports division that is in charge of these shows.
And lets not forget that the second EliteXC CBS show had mediocre ratings, and the 3rd show was make it or break it (the Kimbo/Seth issue ended up being even more important).
So for Zuffa to sign with CBS they would have to do the following:
1. Be treated like a TV Show, and not a sport.
2. Likely lose money on each show.
3. Always be 1 or 2 shows away from being cancelled. Heck, the network could just change their minds and can it.
4. Risk changing their entire format structure (PPV to PPV/NetworkTV), only to have things changed in a heartbeat.
I agree Zuffa should be able to command big money deals…. But these networks are run by an older generation who just doesn’t understand the sport, nor do they understand the potential of the sport. Neither do many sponsors, which at the end of the day effects everything.
Lastly, the $25 Million number being thrown around is a “could” not a guaranteed.
It isn’t their sports division that is in charge of these shows.
Showtime Sports took over production of the MMA events last year.
When it’s on Showtime, it is part of their sports division. Not when it’s on CBS. The CBS cards are handled not by CBS Sports, but the same part of the station that does the sitcoms and reality shows.
Not when it’s on CBS.
Wrong.
http://fighthype.com/pages/content2748.html
http://fighthype.com/pages/content3009.html
http://insidefights.com/2008/08/28/press-release-for-cbs-elitexc-saturday-night-fights/
Thanks for providing links that show that you are wrong:
Profile of Kelly Kahl, who is mentioned in the first article… He is not part of the CBS Sports Division…. http://www.cbscorporation.com/our_company/divisions/cbs_entertainment/executives.php?id=561
I am not disagreeing that Showtime Sports is part of the equation. But the way CBS is handling it, is no different then their sitcoms. They are not handling this in their sports division.
Here is another link:
http://www.cbscorporation.com/our_company/divisions/cbs_network/index.php
On the right hand side, read the paragraph. It specifically says there is a difference between CBS Entertainment and CBS Sports. Kelly Kahl is part of CBS Entertainment.
This is exactly my point. MMA is not being handled as it should be on that station. And that is EXACTLY the problem.
You are officially wrong.
To repeat what I said earlier: Showtime Sports took over production of the MMA events last year. Which they did. Which they are credited to have done by the press releases and on the broadcasts.
You aren’t getting it, so this will be my last post on the topic.
Showtime does the production. I am not debating this.
When MMA is on CBS…. It is treated like a sitcom or reality TV. The same department who decides what TV shows are coming on the fall line-up are the same people who are deciding the direction of the sport on their network.
The sport is not being handled within the CBS Sports Division, where the major sports are being handled.
It’s nice that Showtime Sports is doing the graphics, and getting commentators. But on CBS, the main boss for the sport is an entertainment guy not a sports guy.
That makes a huge difference. It also shows how serious (or in this case not serious), CBS is about MMA.
Showtime Sports, who have been doing production for boxing for 2 decades and not reality TV (which god knows the UFC is above), did the production for the CBS MMA events as well as their own. They hired Gus Johnson, for christ’s sake.
lol at the predictable responses to my post, including the false argument that Zuffa would have to give away their biggest fights on network TV instead of PPV