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About that mystery MMA show coming up…
By Zach Arnold | January 11, 2009
… and I’m not talking about next week’s UFC event. I’ve seen cable and PPV ad spots for that event coming up.
I’m unfortunately referring to the Affliction show on the 24th in Anaheim, which has absolutely no media heat whatsoever. Zero. Zilch. Nada. A disaster in the making.
Speaking of which, has the California State Athletic Commission granted Gilbert Yvel his license yet? What happens if he doesn’t get his license before the fight with Josh Barnett? Does Barnett get paid anyways, or does he take one for the team and get paid nothing?
The big ‘angle’ going into this show is that Freddie Roach is going to be in Andrei Arlovski’s corner for the fight against Fedor?
Those merchandise sales at the kiosks for Affliction better be really good this time around. I still stand by my prediction that I made two months ago — that this show will draw no more than 20,000 PPV buys. Those of you who were clamoring about this show drawing 100,000 PPV buys, would you like to revise your estimates?
Topics: Affliction, Media, MMA, Zach Arnold | 47 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
This show does have a great card — and it is their second show. Do people want Affliction to go away? I enjoyed the first show and am hoping this one will be good too.
Atencio apparently has a backup, and the disgusted concensus is coming down to Gary Goodridge, which I think it absurd, but if it was actually his backup plan, consider Affliction finished.
The first show did better than I thought it would from a PPV standpoint, but it will be hard for the second show to come anywhere close to that. It was funny to hear how delusional Trump lawyer Michael Cohen was during the recent press conference. Affliction’s Tom Antecio’s said something like, “We know we’re not the UFC. The UFC is like the Q-Tip of MMA. We’re just trying to put on great shows.” Then minutes later, Cohen must have been confused because he said, “Just like Tom said, we are going to be the Q-Tip of MMA!”
Cohen also hilariously said, “Many members of the media have said that this is the MMA card of the century!” It’s a very good card, sure, but I don’t recall even one member of the media (much less “many”) who has called it the event “of the century.”
Leland— Sickeningly enough, Yvel is cleared to go as long as he passes the standard medical tests. As for Goodridge, he has enough knockout losses between MMA and kickboxing that an athletic commission might need to step in and save him from himself at some point.
The same is true for Kazushi Sakuraba, Hidehiko Yoshida, Ken Shamrock, Wanderlei Silva (getting brutally knocked out cold on three separate occasions is no joke), and numerous other MMA fighters. Unfortunately, the Japan-based fighters have no athletic commission to look out for their safety above all else, and we’ve yet to see if any U.S. athletic commissions are willing to take an unpopular stand when it finally becomes time for someone to take that stand.
Even if an athletic commission does take a stand like New York did with Evander Holyfield several years ago, the fighters are still likely to try to continue fighting elsewhere, but at least it limits their options and makes it less of an attractive option to the fighters to continue suffering more and more brain damage as the years go on.
Any MMA promotion that puts on decent-good fights and supports the older veterans like Matyushenko and Belfort deserve a round of applause.
However, in reality, I agree with Zach that the Affliction PPV buy number won’t be good for their bottom line. Hopefully Fedor alone draws 20k!
Ivan- Yvel being cleared has angered a lot of hardcore fans to an extent, but I’m not surprised. I’m assuming Douglas is pushing a forgive & forget motto in this case, but that’s been the CSAC’s policy for years. Or as I like to put it, forgive… because we don’t know what we’re doing.
All you’d have to do is look at Goodridge’s last bout against an unknown. He literally was KO’d standing, then got combo’d like he was in the video game Killer Instinct. The guy must have landed 5 to 6 shots before Goodridge hit the ground. It’s sad to see how badly Goodridge has it right now. He could very well be the first MMA guy to permanently be a vegetable from the sport if it keeps going this way.
PPV buys will still easily exceed 20K even with zero heat. All hardcores know about the card without the advertising. Only a small percentage of hardcores will willfully steal the show via stream because many people do actually want a viable place for fighters to go besides the UFC. It won’t do big numbers because TUF noobs who could buy it will steal it because they feel UFC is the only real “Ultimate fighting” and everything else should get out of its way or die. I’m still putting buys somewhere between 50-100K probably like 65K – 75K
Here are the factors (in my opinion):
1. First Affliction show had some really bad production value. That will scare away some viewers to their second card.
2. The card really isn’t that good outside the Main Event. Barnett/Yvel is the co-main event. Vlady/Nog isn’t even on the PPV.
3. The UFC’s domination. UFC 91 was an “event”. So was UFC 92. UFC 94 is lining up to be the same exact thing. And lets not forget a little show called UFC 93 that will at least take away a few PPV purchases from Affliction. I think UFC 93/UFC 94 combo hurts Affliction more then Silva/Irvin on the same day. It forces people to make a decision with their wallet.
4. The economy. I have said in the past (and proven correct), that when the economy does bad, more people stay at home, less vacations, but they are more welling to spend money to entertain themselves with local things. This has shown in the last two PPV Buys. However, there are limitations to this. Most people are not going to buy 3 PPV’s in the matter of 15 days. Each one is $45, for a grand total of $135. And if consumers have to choose, they will go with the name brand they understand.
I don’t know if Affliction is done after this show, but they are likely not going to make it out of 2009.
My prediction is 60,000 PPV Buys. Which is decent for a non-UFC entity, but not enough to keep the company afloat. And we haven’t heard anything of their ticket sales, which is always a bad sign. Even Zuffa is hurting to sell live tickets now. I can’t imagine it being easy for Affliction.
I’m sure we will get articles from sites after the event claiming Affliction got a $2 Million gate…. Only to find out later that they bought some of the tickets themselves (happened during the first event).
Did a little search of their tickets on Ticketmaster. All searches for two tickets:
$50 – Still available
$100 – Still available
$200 – Still available. Found 2nd Row Seats right on the side, lower section.
$300 – Still available. Found 1st row, center to octagon, about 2 sections to the side.
$450 – Still available. Floor Seat, 6th row.
$1,000 – Still available. Floor Stea, 4th row.
Anytime you have 1st or 2nd row tickets available for a prive range within a week of the event, that is a bad sign.
Things are indeed looking rocky.
As of Friday, you could buy blocks of 12 tickets in every price range, including 12 4th row seats.
Skwirrl, you severely over-estimate the ‘hardcores’. Any and every promotion that has tried to make hardcores their focus has failed in spectacular fashion. They are the most likely to use streams and whatnot to watch PPV’s, as they know where the streams are. Your ‘TUF noobs'(horrible phrase that you should consider abandoning) and casual fans aren’t ‘hardcore’ enough to be bothered searching out the bootleg streams. They also don’t frequent the MMA forums/news sites and therefore haven’t even heard about this card.
This card will fail badly. A perfect storm has hit Affliction: poor business plan, poor marketing, poor economy.
I think that there’s a substantial portion of “hardcores” who are “hardcore” to UFC only, just as there are “hardcores” who are “hardcore” only toward Pride and any entity that they regard as its descendant.
Those 20k people will continue to look for the “next Pride” until the cows come home. Meanwhile, the 350k “UFC hardcores” form the floor for UFC’s PPVs and “ambassadors” for the brand in offices and schools.
They are making Gary Goodridge the back up? For the love of God. Barnett vs. Goodridge would be legalized assault. For Gary’s safety, no SAC should allow him to fight in a combat sport ever again. Gary shouldn’t have to be forced to fight in order to make a living. My taxes should be put to use helping people like Gary instead of bailing out failed American auto companies.
If Affliction hasn’t started their media push less than 2 weeks before the Day of Reckoning, they are finished. Bye, Bye Affliction after January 24.
As I’ve been saying all along…Affliction will probably never make it to show number 3. It’s not that I want them to die or go away. However, it’s kinda hard to support a company that just throws money away stupidly.
I still think nearly everyone from the first show will buy again. Last time they did zero media until the week before the show and did surprisingly well.
It’s really impossible to predict well until the week of the show, but I do not think it will drop below 50k.
So,what’s the “magic number” for the show to be successful or not?
Personally,my thinking is much like Zach & 45’s. With all the circumstances the promotion is battling against & the ridiculous amount of PPV competition that it’s facing, I don’t see it being the sort of “slam dunk” that Atencio & co. need in order to stay in business.
Which is really too bad, because I happen to like Atencio & his enthusiasm for the sport. I think he has a lot to offer it.
What do the rest of you think about a merger of assets with STRIKEFORCE? Or, the possibility of Scott Coker buying out what remains of the Affliction promotional outfit should January 24th turn out to be a total failure?
I have to believe that that & perhaps ( finally ) a purchase of what’s left of EliteXC would make Coker’s outfit a solid alternative to the UFC. And, that they’d definitely be able to turn it into a much bigger & better television deal on network television & cable. As well as PPV a bit farther down the line.
Thoughts?
I want Affliction to fail. Not because I’m against competition, but because most of the fighters would end up in Sengoku, or Dream. The japanese MMA scene could really use Fedor, and Barnett not to mention Sokoudjou and potential new faces. I also want them to fail because I want to see Fedor fight more often. I can’t stand all that skull nonsense either. It’s embarrassing to be caught watching it.
So, what’s the “magic number” for success or failure for Atencio & company’s second show?
Personally, I’m thinking right along the same lines of Zack & 45 regarding the circumstances that Affliction unfortunately has to deal with that are working against the promotion being a success & the almost ridiculous amount of competition that they’re facing from the UFC for MMA fan’s $$$.
I just think that it’s all too much for them to deal with.
Which is a shame because I happen to think that Tom Atencios good for the sport & that he’s got a lot to offer it & it’s fans other than a plethora of overpriced T-shirts.
Should Atencio’s promotion fail as a result of January 24 being some sort of a complete failure that they can’t recover from, what do the rest of you think about the possibility of Scott Coker’s Strikeforce stepping in & either incorporating the Affliction promotion into his own or simply buying up what’s left of them?
I have to believe that if Strikeforce were able to do that & perhaps also purchase the remaining assets of Elite XC, then Coker would have a viable domestic alternative to the UFC.
Something that would have no trouble securing a bigger & better television deal with the networks & cable.
Any thoughts?
Nonstarter.
If Affliction entertainment needs to shut down, they will file for bankruptcy and sell off assets. It is separate from the clothing line. Nobody is going to buy/incorporate Affliction because the contracts are non-transferrable and they have nothing of value to sell to another MMA company. Even if the contracts were transferrable, they would blow up the payscale of someone like strikeforce.
For me, the “magic number” is actually being able to hold the show instead of calling it quits the week of because they don’t have the cash to cut the paychecks and not have them bounce.
AFAIK, that isn’t an issue.
To be regarded as a legitimate promotion these days, though, it seems like you need to get to your tenth show at least.
As for Leland’s concerns regarding Gary Goodridge’s possible participation in the Affliction show, I have to believe that the Cally commission would refuse to license “Big Daddy” unless he passed an expensive, extensive series of tests that I doubt Tom Atencio & co. would want to pay for, knowing that in all likelihood he’d fail them anyhow.
So, even though I know better than to say that something’s not possible in the fight game, I will say that Gary’s participation ( as anything other than a seat filler, that is ) is highly improbable.
Peace. ““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““
How much does Affliction spend to sponser the Golden Boy fights?
I am one of many “hardcores” who will purchase the Affliction PPV for 2 reasons:
1) It’s an excellent card, especially the main event
2) I want to support competition to the UFC, not merely with my commentary, but with my wallet, too
“However, it’s kinda hard to support a company that just throws money away stupidly.”
Well you could just enjoy the fights and not root for promotions. Cage Rage was a shitty promotion, but I always tuned in cuz they had a couple relevant fights on the card.
As some people have stated, Yvel has been cleared to fight. Source: Attencio on Inside MMA.
I question the people who say this is a great card. If this card was put on by Zuffa, it would be called a mediocre card with a really good main event. Nothing more, nothing less.
The goalposts get moved for lesser organizations.
I guess it is. But when the PPV Price is the same ($45 on my cable), it shouldn’t be. And just to defend my comment on the quality of the card… I did think ON PAPER UFC 91 was just a main event and not much else. As for this Affliction Card:
1. Fedor/Arlovski is obviously a good main event.
2. The Barnett & Buentello fights are pretty pointless. If anything, they should be fighting each other.
3. Soko & Belfort have a history of folding under pressure time and time again. In fact, they have put on some really bad performances during their careers when they are front runners.
4. Horodecki/Lauzon is an up & coming fight, but should that be on the PPV instead of Nog/Vlady? I don’t think so.
45 Huddle:
I find it absolutely baffling you’d rather see Rogerio-Matyushenko Horodecki-Lauzon.
Having sat through so many of Matyushenko’s fights I find it truly amazing that anyone would want to see him in ‘action’ more than the likes of Horodecki-Lauzon.
I’m shocked by how non-existant the advertising has been. This show is going to get buried by the advertising for UFC 92.
I’m still not 100% certain this is even going ahead. I’m still half-expecting a last minute cancellation.
And if it DOES go ahead, I’ll be completely stunned if they top 30,000 PPV buys.
I hope megadeath playing again?
Still too early to predict exactly how bad this will do. Anything can happen in the last week, and that is even still a week away from being here. As a fan of the sport my only worry is that we’ll get a crowd so small that it makes for a horrid feel in the arena for a card that deserves better. Running a big show in CA is still a fooking stupid idea for anyone not named Strikeforce or UFC.
Fedor vs AA
Barnett vs Yvel (who is on an 8 fight win streak with 7 KOs and a sub since his loss to Zentsov)
Belfort vs Lindland – Belforts seems to have perhaps FINALLY turned it around after his performance at Banned
Sobral vs Soccerjew is a good early televised card bout
Horodecki vs Lauzon is an exciting scrap
Buentello vs Sidellnikov is a chance to see if Baby Fedor has what it takes to compete yet.
And the HDnet headliner of Rogerio vs Matyushenko… Hopefully Rogerio knocks him cold quickly and brutually.
Any UFC card that had that as its broadcast would certainly get a pass from me. I gave 90 a pass for the depth of talent on the card and 91 also. I didn’t give the same pass to 92 because it wasn’t deep. This is a pretty deep card.
>>>>The goalposts get moved for lesser organizations.<<<<
Honestly, it is on par with your average throwaway UFC event. People have bigger expectations for UFC for a reason; they employ hundreds of fighters, most of them the top fighters in the sport. The fact that we get cards like the one this weekend (or most of their UK offerings) is baffling.
People are more critical of UFC cards because, quite honestly, they should be. UFC is without a doubt the apex of the sport and people always have high expectations. With Affliction people expect it to roll over and die, so anything is above expectations for them.
I think there’s a good chance that Vlad will decision Lil Nog.
Dave compare this to the GSP vs Fitch card UFC 87 card. #1 and #2 at their weight going at it. Except I consider AA vs Fedor to be much more exciting that GSP vs Fitch should have been. (Fitch’s toughness definately made it interesting but it was clear he had nothing for GSP)
Florian and Huerta – Lindland and Vitor
Lesner and Herring – Barnett and Yvel
Maia vs McDonald – Sobral vs Soccerjew
Manny vs Emerson – Horodecki vs Lauzon
Congo vs Evenson – Buentello vs Sidellnikov
Gusmao vs J. Jones – Lil Nog vs Matyushenko
McCrory vs Cummo – J. Heiron vs J. High
Bruno vs Wilson – Hominick vs LC Davis
Saunders vs Thomas – Rios vs A. Duarte
Seriously – fight by fight this is better than many UFC cards. It would be most closely compared to 87 (as seen above) in terms of its setup. I will buy.
No, totally, I agree. But some people get really excited about mediocre UFC cards. Some people get really stoked for UFC cards with lots of up-and-comers from minor promotions that they heard were great fighters on a forum or in a gym. I know for me personally, I don’t.
It is nothing against up-and-coming fighters, it just doesn’t excite me until I really know what they are capable of.
“People have bigger expectations for UFC for a reason; they employ hundreds of fighters, most of them the top fighters in the sport. The fact that we get cards like the one this weekend (or most of their UK offerings) is baffling.”
See? You’re moving the goalposts. The UFC has tons of top fighters. They also have 10 times as many shows per year as Affliction does at the rate they’re going.
Obviously, the UFC can’t put together incredible, world beating cards 20 times a year. But Affliction is doing UFC throwaway level shows twice a year. So why are many people rushing to defend it as a terrific card? Its throwaway UFC level, in your own words.
Which is okay. What isn’t okay is people trying to sell it as an incredible card. That is based more on the need to find a competitor to ‘beat’ the UFC, than any sort of reality.
Its definitely above throwaway level and the only thing it is missing for it to be a truly awesome card is a legit challenger for Barnett like Alex E. Sadly that didn’t pan out.
Honestly, I most likely won’t be buying this card. I sure as hell purchased the last card because it was a stronger card. This is by definition a one fight card.
Is it a good card for a start-up company trying to compete and looking for any talented, recognizable fighter they can find? Sure. Does this card have its flaws? Absolutely. The last card was much better. I don’t care to see Barnett fight a throw away fight against a washed up fighter.
As for the advertising not being up to par, I think it has to do with a lot of internet sites not pushing this card as hard as we did the first one. The first card was a great freaking fight card. This one is mediocre and a lot harder to get excited about and push.
Of the UFC 89 vs. Affliction 2 comparison…. for the main card…. I prefered (on paper), every single UFC fight over it’s Affliction counterpart except for the Kongo fight.
And let’s not even compare Affliction 2 to UFC 92 or UFC 94. Those were stellar cards. UFC 92 didn’t have a great undercard, but it was a 3 main event PPV.
This Affliction card is on par with UFC 93… Which I’m only ordering as a way to get out of a family gathering. Thanks Zuffa!!!
The bar I watch UFCs at isn’t airing the early showing, so I’ll be watching an internet stream of 93.
UFC 92 was a 3 main event PPV but 2 out of 3 of the main events were huge let downs, especially Wand vs Rampage. Wand especially and Big Nog just aren’t competitive enough to hang anymore. Sad fights to watch.
Fedor vs. Arlovski could turn out to be a let down if Fedor finishes Arlovski quickly but I don’t think Arlovski is getting Zulu’d like Sylvia was.
“UFC 92 was a 3 main event PPV but 2 out of 3 of the main events were huge let downs, especially Wand vs Rampage. Wand especially and Big Nog just aren’t competitive enough to hang anymore. Sad fights to watch. ”
Purely opinion. Whether or not Wand and Nog can still hang, a LOT of people thought that event was totally awesome.
Well, it isn’t really Zuffa’s fault that those fights weren’t barn-burners. I don’t think you’ll find anybody other than a random sherdogger saying Affliction: DoR is a better card than UFC 92. That was a very good card, if anything Affliction 1 was a lot closer.
[…] “Day of Reckoning” is right around the corner, and it sort of seems like there is very little in the way of advertising muscle put into it. While one could easily argue that the first Affliction show was not advertised heavily […]
[…] “Day of Reckoning” is right around the corner, and it sort of seems like there is very little in the way of advertising muscle put into it. While one could easily argue that the first Affliction show was not advertised heavily […]