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Affliction 2 card in real need of drawing power
By Zach Arnold | November 24, 2008
If this is the card so far, it needs a lot of help to draw more than 20,000 PPV buys:
Top two fights: Fedor vs. Arlovski and Lindland vs. Babalu
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Kiril Sidelnikov vs. Paul Buentello
Chris Horodecki vs. Dan Lauzon
Jay Hieron vs. Jason High
Mark Hominick vs. LC Davis
Antonio Duarte vs. Albert Rios
First thought: Arlovski and Babalu are the two strongest drawing cards on this line-up and they’ve been out of UFC for too long to make any impact for an organization with no television deal.
There is no need for UFC President Dana White to lose any sleep over the competition with cards like these.
Update: Brent Brookhouse thinks this show will do more than 100,000 buys. I stand by my estimate of 20,000 buys.
Topics: Affliction, Media, MMA, Zach Arnold | 55 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Isn’t Arlovski going to be paid 7 figures for this fight? Or did he take a paycut?
Isn’t it dishonest to say you aren’t going to ask Josh Barnett to take a paycut then end up not using him at all for your second fight card.
Is Tim Sylvia retired? Or did he price himself out of Affliction?
Eh knowing Dana…A UFC PPV replay for free on Spike or a UFC special on Spike the same day as the Affliction card, problem solved.
Arlovski has a “fedor” clause in his contract….. from what i hear he will get a significant pay bump for fighting fedor…..
If I’d just been paid $500,000 to fight, I wouldn’t be fighting anymore, I’d be retired to a villa in the Dominican Republic, there to wait out the first world’s descent into anarchy in a luxury of sun and warm nights.
I think the Affliction card is looking better than what the UFC is proposing. I wonder if this bloggers on Dana’s payroll? The UFC needs some competition just to keep the fighter pool alive. He’s going to totally delete any chance of less than elite fighters making any money. I think Sobral is on the Affliction card as well.
LOL at Zach on the UFC payroll. It’s debatable if Fedor VS Arlovski is better than Penn VS GSP II. We already know Fedor will beat Arlovski so there’s nothing to pay in that one other than a one sided beating. Penn VS GSP II will be an epic 5 rounder if it last that long. Furthermore, the undercard of Thiago VS Machida puts everything else on Affliction to shame.
Dana doesn’t have to worry about Affliction, the “Fedor clause” will bring Affliction down. Bad business practices + recession = bankruptcy.
Unless Arlovski beats the crap out of Fedor. God knows what the internet would do then.
Looks good for the fights as a fan, but it needs another match to draw in more casual viewers. I’m happy with it though if they just learned to control their aspirations and costs from the previous one.
It’s a very hard PPV to purchase for me. Look at the MMA schedule around the event:
1. UFC 93 – 01/17 ($45)
2. Affliction 2 – 2/24 ($40)
3. WEC 38 – 2/25 (Free)
4. UFC 94 – 1/31 ($45)
There is no way I’m spending $130 on MMA in 15 days. UFC 94 is a guaranteed purchase for me. Fitch/Gono, Machida/Silva, Parisyan/Kim, & Bonnar/Jones is a really solid undercard. I’m not a big fan of putting champ vs. champ against each other, but Penn/GSP 2 should still be exciting.
So it comes down UFC 93, Affliction, or neither of them. Both cards have their solid points, but neither are a guaranteed buys. What might end up swaying it for me is the WEC card. Why buy a PPV the weekend I can get a free card? Especially when that PPV isn’t a perfect buy.
Lastly, the Affliction card is lacking…. I believe Nogueira/Vlady is on HDNet. That is a shame. That is a PPV worthy fight. Belfort should be fighting Lindland. Lindland/Babalu does nothing for me as a fan.
Ken,
I think you couldn’t be any further off-base.
#1 – This affliction card, outside of the main event, is weak and full of inconsequential match-ups
#2 – The UFC doesn’t need competition to keep the fighter pool alive. The UFC needs other promoters(and those fabulous money marks) to realize that profit can be made doing targeted, local shows and that going national is just not viable. The UFC needs strong local promotions to serve as a feeder system and to allow prospects to develop somewhere other than the main stage.
#3 – Less-than-elite fighters can make some good money, if you have a strong series of regional promotions that can turn them into regional stars/draws. EliteXC did more to hurt these less-than-elite fighters than the UFC could ever dream of doing. The buying up, and burying, of several of the top regional promotions was a disaster.
#4 Babalu is Sobral and is on the Affliction card in a meaningless match-up with Lindland(who should be fighting someone like Prangley or Belfort at 185).
From what I heard, Babalu vs. Lindland will be a catchweight bout, because Renato wants to eventually drop to 185.
Babalu would have a tough time getting down to Middleweight. He doesn’t exactly stay in shape all the time between fights.
Plus, if he plans on fighting at Middleweight, then just do it. None of this catchweight garbage.
This money mark promotion won’t even be around in 2010
Tom Atencio always says that he will continue to strive to put on stacked cards but this card is even worse than a typical UFC card when it comes to weak undercards. Superb Main Event, a good co-main event despite being an irrelevant catchweight bout but the rest not so great. The Nogueira vs Vlady fight should be on the PPV, not TV.
I’m sure the PPV won’t do as poorly as Zach thinks though. Fedor is not well known outside the hardcores but the casual fan has heard of him. I think the hardcore fanbase is more than enough to crack over 20,000 PPVs. I don’t know how well this will do in relation to the first card. Banned was more stacked with names but the fights weren’t very competitive. And Fedor vs Arlovski is a stronger main event than Fedor vs Sylvia.
Big Boi,
On your third point, I’m not sure that that is actually true.
Between July 25, 1997 and now, Cage Rage did 14 shows. This is essentially the same as what they did in the previous 13 months, but the vast majority were grass roots shows versus the numbered shows that Cage Rage had been doing to that point.
They ran eight RotR shows from September 2006 to now, slightly down from 11 in the prior span of months.
They ran three Icon shows while owning them, essentially the same as the prior period.
They ran 32 KotC shows, up from 20 in the prior span.
They ran another 17 shows under the EliteXC and ShoXC brands.
So they grew the number of grassroots events of their child organizations while they owned them, and added 17 shows that would not have otherwise occurred to the 1schedule.
That was good for fighters.
Ultimately they didn’t do it well enough, but what they did wasn’t inherently bad.
Werdum vs Barnett
Alex E vs Buentello or Monson
These need to happen
on this card
I think this card will do 70-100k, the problem is just that Fedor’s salary alone requires about 100k buys to break even on. Affliction is structurally set up to fail, they need someone else to buy them or cover all costs.
I say 20,000, you say 70,000 on the low end. I know the real number will be closer to my estimate.
So… any interest in a prop bet? 🙂
I am all seeing and all knowing
DreamFighters.com has learned through various[2] sources that Affliction MMA has been in contact with the management of Fabricio Werdum, in hopes of a contract deal and possibly have Werdum fight at their next event, “Day Of Reckoning”
Current Card as it stands today:
PPV Matches
WAMMA Heavyweight Championship bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski
Heavyweight bout: Josh Barnett vs. TBA
Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. TBA
Middleweight bout: Matt Lindland vs. Renato Sobral
Lightweight bout: Chris Horodecki vs. Dan Lauzon
HDNet Matches
Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Welterweight bout: Jay Hieron vs. Jason High
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. LC Davis
Featherweight bout: Albert Rios vs. Antonio Duarte
Welterweight bout: Brett Cooper vs. TBA
Heavyweight bout: Paul Buentello vs. Kiril Sidelnikov
Source has been confirmed on both ends.
all they need is Mousasi to fight belfort now
Zach, I don’t think you are taking into account the anti ZUFFA PR Dana has worked up. I know people who will buy on their own TV JUST to make a statement against ZUFFA. I will be one. I would of bought anyways… Now I’ll go and buy an Affliction T-shirt just to have that ugly thing to wear around the house.
Well, I guess my prediction is based on the first show doing around 80-100k, and this one having a more marketable main event. I guess the economy and being sandwiched between PPV’s can hurt it.
I’ll take 70, you take 20. Make it a gentleman’s bet 😉 I think 50 is possible, but down to 20 is just epic disaster level.
There is no way this does 20K PPV buys. Bodog did that and it was tape delayed like 2 days. Aside from that fact that I don’t buy anything ZUFFA 93 and 94 are both great cards. Its a shame that ZUFFA has scumbag ownership and I will never consciously give them a dime.
I am guestimating at between 50-60k buys for this ppv. Solid looking show, but NOTHING like the first Affliction show. I think the main event will be THE selling point for the 50-60 thousand buyers. Just about everything else on the card is pretty good but of no consequence to anything except for the winners of each fight having an extra notch on their bedpost (fight record) sort to speak.
“Current Card as it stands today:
PPV Matches
WAMMA Heavyweight Championship bout: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski
Heavyweight bout: Josh Barnett vs. TBA
Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. TBA
Middleweight bout: Matt Lindland vs. Renato Sobral
Lightweight bout: Chris Horodecki vs. Dan Lauzon
HDNet Matches
Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Welterweight bout: Jay Hieron vs. Jason High
Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs. LC Davis
Featherweight bout: Albert Rios vs. Antonio Duarte
Welterweight bout: Brett Cooper vs. TBA
Heavyweight bout: Paul Buentello vs. Kiril Sidelnikov ”
Ok now THAT looks a LOT better! If they get Barnett a good opponent (Werdum? Aleks?) and they set Belfort up with Mousasi, this is going to be a great card for the hardcores. It won’t do well with the casual fan but neither did the first card. Did Affliction Banned really do 80-100k? If so, this second card could do 50-60k and even more if they can get Belfort vs Mousasi and Barnett vs someone good.
It’s obvious that no matter how solid Affliction’s shows are going to be, they are screwed unless they figure out a way to appeal to the casual fan. 100,000 buys seems to be the glass ceiling level if you are trying to appeal to the hardcore fanbase.
If you break down Affliction’s roster, you see that their guys don’t really have much drawing strength with casual fans. Casual fans know a bit about Fedor but probably haven’t seen him fight. Arlovski is probably forgotten by most casual fans since he hasn’t fought in a UFC BROADCAST (unaired undercard doesn’t count) in almost 2 years. Though he did get exposed to 5+ million in the CBS fight so he’s at least been in the public eye recently. Babalu hasn’t been in the UFC for well over a year so the casuals probably forgot about him. Barnett and Belfort left the UFC before they had major exposure. Lindland hasn’t been in the UFC for over 3 years and he wasn’t a popular guy even then. Mousasi, Horodecki and Dan Lauzon are unknown to all but the hardcores. Werdum wasn’t a draw in the UFC. It just doesn’t look good for Affliction. You need draw a good number of ppvs in order to cover the payroll.
Affliction doesn’t put on shitty kickboxing, (ultimate fighting) so the casual fan hasn’t seen it yet.
I think Tom Atencio is really a fan of the sport and as a fan, I can understand the temptation to wanting to put on fights with solid fighters like Fedor, Arlovski, Barnett, Babalu, Lindland, Belfort, etc. But if Affliction wants to survive, they need to take a page out of Scott Coker’s playbook. Operate regionally and focus on promoting local, home-grown talent moreso than expensive, national/international former UFC/PRIDE talent. It’s amazing how regional promoters, not just Strikeforce, turn profits with this formula. If I ever had the capital to be a MMA promoter, I would do roughly what Scott Coker is doing.
Bodog? Heck, King of the Cage’s Naked Ring Girl Hunt probably did better numbers than that.
And I guarantee you they didn’t need to pay anything like the money Affliction’s bleeding here.
I think Bib Boi is missing the big picture. The UFC blackballs one of the biggest sponsors in MMA. They call the shots and if you don’t like it “tough shit” I love watching the UFC but they have way too much power. They say they want to get away from the boxing model because its corrupt…I say BS they want to stay away from the boxing model because the fighters would make way too much money. Seriously Tyson was making 25 million per fight 10 yrs ago. The UFC numbers are huge. Who gets the majority of that money–The UFC why because yhey invested 60 million dollars initially. They made that money back a long time ago. As for local promoters working as a feeder system paying what 500-2000 per event. Who the hell can live on that.
I also forgot too mention the Affliction card has solid fights. Lindland who was black balled. Arlovski who was black balled and Fedor who they won’t sign because he’s smart and expects to get paid what he’s worth, Not to mention Little nog and Jay Hieron I think Big Boi is on Dana’s payroll. The reason Elite XC went out of business because the idiots running it tried to run before learning to walk. You want to talk about Inconsequential match-ups-take a look at the upcoming UFC cards. Recycling compliant fighters.
I think there are enough Swkwirrl’s and Ken’s out there to do 50k. No way are they breaking 80k though.
Lindland VS Babalu will definitely settle the middleweight question. 😉
“#2 – The UFC doesn’t need competition to keep the fighter pool alive. The UFC needs other promoters(and those fabulous money marks) to realize that profit can be made doing targeted, local shows and that going national is just not viable. The UFC needs strong local promotions to serve as a feeder system and to allow prospects to develop somewhere other than the main stage.”
With regards to the above quote sure that would help. Now tell Dana to start promoting some of these–Not going to happen.
Rich Franklin Vs. Dan Henderson
Name: Rich Franklin
Height: 6′ 1″ (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 25-3-0
“Ace”
Name: Dan Henderson
Height: 6′ 1″ (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 22-7-0
“Hendo”
Mark Coleman Vs. Mauricio Rua
Name: Mark Coleman
Height: 6′ 1″ (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 15-8-0
“The Hammer”
Name: Mauricio Rua
Height: 6′ 1″ (185 cm)
Weight: 205 (93 kg)
Record: 16-3-0
“Shogun”
This is supposed to be Afflictions competition. They better start to stack the event and make it free. I’m watching the Affliction fight so far. Unless they throw GSP vs Anderson Silva on that card.
I do have to say though. Those Affliction shirts are butt ugly.
Ken: Main event boxers make a lot of coin but not the ones on the undercard. Boxers on a HBO undercard get paid crap. While Zuffa are cheapskates, the fighters on the UFC undercard do get paid better than on an HBO undercard.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=ki-mmamailbag042908&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
For example: Calzaghe and Hopkins got $3 million guaranteed according to the athletic commission for their fight. That’s pretty darn good considering the buy rates. But the third highest paid boxer got only $20,000 while the UFC routinely pays $40,000 – $60,000 in OTN bonuses alone. So who really treats their undercard fighters better?
Do I think we should shift towards the boxing model of paying the main event obscene salaries and giving undercards a pittance? No. I think the undercard fighters in the UFC and boxing should get even more of the pie. You can’t make a living in pro fighting making so little. The more fighters you have making mma their full-time career, the better their skill level will be.
Of course Affliction tends to be more generous, at least for the most part, but they need to turn a profit first to ensure the stability of their operation.
The small regional promotions aren’t meant to be venues for fully professional fighters. They get by by running small arenas (the local guys here run the Shriner arena, it’s about 3700 seats, with tickets priced at $35/45/65/100/250 about in line with a UFC Fight Night(UFN in Colorado this year in a 6700 seat venue gated $750,000).
Even if the 3000 seat difference was all at $40 (UFC’s lowest priced ticket for that event), you’re still talking about a potential gate of about $600k, and there’s no way that they’re selling all their floor seats at the price UFC gets. More likely the prices are for two levels of seats in the stands, floor, and VIP for the front two rows.
Based on that assumption, they probably gate in the $200k range, and there are 20 fighters on the card. If they paid out over 75% of the high end gate (doubtful, this place costs money to rent, you have to set up seating, signage, the ring (this is a ring promotion), you’ve got to pay refs, ticket takers, marketing, etc), you’re talking fighters on average being paid 5/5, with more realistic payroll averaging to 3/3.
And this is probably one of the more successful regional promotions in terms of tickets sold and ticket prices.
Gladiator Challenge does venues in the 3000 range as well and sometimes sells out. Tickets are at $65/85/100/150, with the $100 and $150 prices reserved for the second and first rows, and $85 being floor seats.
Just how much do you want these small promotions to pay?
I already bought tickets. The first one was awesome live.
Jeremy: Yeah these small promotions don’t have that much money. I know that the XFC in Florida sold over 11,000 in their last event but last I checked, their tickets are $10-40 now due to a special $10 off promotion. Usually they are $20-50. With low ticket prices like that, that’s not a lot of revenue to work with despite the large attendance. They are profitable though so it works for them. But you can bet that the fighters get paid little. You have to when you don’t get much in revenue.
What happend to FEG saying they were going to help out Affliction with loaners? Or am I thinking of Elite XC?
Any idea how many buys Banned did? I’ve heard 100,000+ but they never officially released a number. I agree with Zach, I really don’t see them doing more than 20,000 buys. Much like everyone else, I believe this will be their last show.
http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/?go=forum_framed.posts&forum=1&thread=1374708&page=1&pc=45
Speaking of Matt Lindland, who is on this Affliction card….
It’s scary how dumb some of the MMA Media is. Obviously some of the cutting in the trailer could take things out of context from what specific people have said, but Loretta Hunt is a bad journalist…. plain and simple.
Count me among those who will purchase the Affliction PPV:
1) because it’s a solid card, and
2) because we believe it’s important to put our money where our mouth is in support of competition to the UFC.
That Bloody Elbow FanPost article is pretty darn optimistic. 200,000 buys?! Wow, I wish! That author does make some good points. He points out that Fedor was promoted heavily during the EliteXC CBS card. Arlovski was promoted as well and his fight on CBS was seen by 5+ million. How much that’s going to help their draw power? Who knows. Casual fans have only heard of Fedor at most, let alone seen him fight. They haven’t seen Arlovski on a UFC broadcast in almost two years.
I just don’t understand how an Affliction show with a better main event than their first show does a quarter the buys. It makes no sense to me.
There is very little precedent in the entire history of MMA, pro wrestling or boxing where a strong main event did soft business because of a weak undercard. Affliction is smart not to sink hundreds of thousands of additional dollars in the undercard. It’s actually a positive lesson they learned from the first show.
1. Compare the hype for this upcoming show to the first event, which had an inordinate amount of hype amongst press types (huge amounts of e-mail ads, PR sessions, etc.) Almost dead silent on this front.
2. It was UFC running head-to-head with Anderson Silva that actually gave some media oxygen for Affliction. For media types, it was an easy storyline to write articles on. “Ooh, the big bad UFC is running against Affliction and Donald Trump.”
3. Andrei Arlovski isn’t going to move the needle much now for business. He didn’t move the needle for ticket sales when Affliction tried to run in Vegas, he really didn’t move the needle at all on the CBS telecast of Elite XC, and he likely won’t move the needle much here in this upcoming fight. Too much time off of meaningful television shows.
You consider Fedor/Arlovski to be a strong main event, and I look at it as incredibly weak on the business side. Painfully weak.
We’re 2 months out, Zach. The media crunch for the first show didn’t start until much, much later.
I’m with you that some are probably overestimating Andrei Arlovski’s appeal. But we’re comparing him as a draw to Tim Sylvia. Tim Sylvia!
Fedor-Arlovski is a strong main event for the audience Affliction attracts. Is it a strong main event by UFC standards? Of course not. But the discussion here is 20,000 buys vs. 80,000 buys, not 80,000 buys vs. 300,000 buys.
Zach is correct. A few other points.
1. There was a UFC PPV 2 weeks before and 3 weeks after. People didn’t really have to make a choice between spending money on a UFC or Affliction card.
2. There is a UFC PPV the weekend before. There is a UFC PPV the weekend after. Zuffa has a guaranteed 200,000 PPV Buys for even the UK events. And most fans will purchase Penn/GSP. Fans (such as myself) will have to make a decision on what PPV to purchase.
I really think this PPV gets 50,000 PPV Buys. Either way, even if they get 100,000, they are going to lose money. $20 X 100,000 = $2,000,000. If the live gate is $1.5 Million, then they will likely get half. With the amount they are paying fighters, that still means money lost.
[…] care about the fight on the basis of its potential money making value is not questioned, much time is spent arguing the comparative minuta of potentially bad PPV numbers for what is likely the best fight that can be […]
45: Yeah it’s just not economically viable for a promotion to be snapping up expensive world class fighters to compete with the UFC. You have to start small and take baby steps in this business. The only successful competitors who are still standing have done just that. The ones who tried to go too big too soon are now dead. I love Fedor and Arlovski but there isn’t a single competitor out there that can reasonably meet their salary demands without bankrupting themselves.
Given that Affliction won’t last to a third show and FEG will probably cancel DREAM in 2009, I think Arlovski will be back in the UFC next year. Arlovski could also just go into boxing but you need to be a world class boxer to get the paydays he’s been accustomed to in MMA. Unless Freddie Roach isn’t kidding when he says that Arlovski is good enough to be a heavyweight boxing champ. I don’t buy it. Roach also claims that Pacman will beat Golden Boy. How credible can his word be?
If Affliction and DREAM fold, Fedor can still just go into semi-retirement fighting freak shows on NYE once a year for K-1 Dynamite. I’m sure that FEG would still do MMA on K-1 Dynamite just to cash in on Kid, Akiyama, etc. if they got rid of DREAM.
I think Todd is right. It’s a stronger main event. The offsetting factors are less money for promotion, no UFC counter promotion for press, and the lack of novelty from the first show. My guess right now is 75.
I still have doubts this event will even happen. Certainly there is a bean counter somewhere screaming about taking such a guaranteed loss.