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UFC 65: Analysis and predictions
By Stephan | November 15, 2006
The Bad Intentions card is pretty exciting — two title bouts, and also a very interesting Frank Mir vs. Brandon Vera fight.
Under Card
Nick Diaz vs Gleison Tibau (Welterweight)
This must be disappointing for Nick Diaz to be on the under card, after his last great win against Josh Neer. This probably will be an exciting fight as the press release states about Tibau that he fights out of the American Top Team camp in Coconut Creek, Fla.(He trains with Denis Kang?), and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner with lightning fast submissions. Tibau is looking for the upset when he battles Nick Diaz. This would be a match that I would have enjoyed watching. I’m thinking, Nick Diaz is not slouch standing up and on the ground. So not knowing much about Tibau, is that it will end up on the ground quite a bit, but I still think that Nick can catch the newcomer standing up, so Nick Diaz by KO, 2nd round
Sherman Pendergarst vs Antoni Hardonk (Heavyweight)
Sherman is a late replacement for Brad Imes, the UFC didn’t list a reason for Brad pulling out, although this close to fight date, a training injury is safe to assume. Pendergarst, making his debut in the UFC, has fought three UFC veterans in his career. Earlier in his career, he lost a decision to Carmelo Marrero. Marrero, you may remember him debuting at UFC 64 with a win over Cheick Kongo. He defeated Aaron Brink this past August by submission, but lost to Justin Eilers by knockout in May. Sherman Pendergarst is a 6’1 230 pound former Collegiate wrestler and State High School wrestling champion with a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Boxing and Kick boxing.. Unfortunately, I am not finding much info on Hardonk, he is also making his UFC debut, he has fought in K1 and various Muay Thai shows. Based on what I found, Pendergarst seems better rounded, so I’ll pick Sherman as the winner, lets say by submission.
Jake O’Brien vs Josh Shockman (Heavyweight)
O’Brien just beat Kristof Midoux at Ultimate Fight Night in August by TKO, he is a strong wrestler and major knock out power. Shockman “The Warhammer” is making his debut at the UFC, he has only two pro-fights so far, but he has win both by KO/TKO. So this should by solid matchup, both fighters come with an unblemished record. Someone should win by TKO, I’ll flip the coin on that one, Shockman by TKO.
James Irving vs Hector Ramirez (Light Heavyweight)
James Irving has fought in the UFC before, he first loss to Mike Kyle at UFC 51, then won against Terry Martin at UFC 54, KO by flying knee, and then lost against Stephan Bonnar at UFN3. Frankly I dont remember him much, I would have to rewatch some reels. His wins seem to come mostly by KO, two by knees (I must have been asleep, because he does sound exciting!). Hector Ramirez is a newcomer to the UFC, what I found out is that he has loss to Rashad Evans (over 2 years ago), and won against Kendall Grove by KO (May 05). Looking at these fighters profile, we could be in for a standup war. I will pick Irving by KO, and why not, by flying knee.
Main Card
Joe Stevenson vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima (Lightweight)
Suddenly the lightweight division is crowded, and with BJ Penn announcing that he’ll be back in lightweight, this place will be crowded indeed. Btw, TUF5 will be strickly lightweight as well, and BJ Penn will be a coach. I digress back to this bout, Joe Stevenson will fit better in this division as well. His last win against Yves Edward was one of the bloodiest affair I can remember, unfortunately, to me it isnt a real win, just a win by cut, which is unfortunate. He is getting a serious test in Mishima. Joe knows he has a strong test in front of him as he said “He’s a very tough fighter who has fought the best in the world and beaten some very good fighters”. Indeed, Mishima is a veteran of Shooto, Hook N’Shoot, and Pride who has been in the ring with Edwards (loss), Takanori Gomi (loss), Marcus Aurelio (win), and Din Thomas (loss) over his eight year career. Mishima does not want to find himself under the Stevenson’ GNP, but he can do everything else. A very difficult call, but I will go with experience, Mishima by submission, Mishima is crazy with the ankle and leg locks.
Alessio Sakara vs Drew McFedries (Light heavyweight)
Hard hitting “Legionarius” Sakara, is unfortunately a one dimensional fighter (kickboxer), with good basic ground defense. Even standing up, his strength, he is not that impressive, he may be a good boxer, but all the opponents that he won against had losing records. So with the UFC, he has a loss to Dean Lister and a win over Elvis Sinosic (doesnt everybody?). Drew McFedries is a replacement for Gouveia, who got injured training. According to mmanews.com McFedries has a 4-1 professional MMA record with his last fight being just over three weeks ago at Extreme Challenge 71, where he defeated Brian Monahan in the first round. McFedries’ most notable opponent was his pro MMA debut in September of 2001, where he lost to Nate Quarry by TKO at Extreme Challenge 43. As much as I am not impressed with him, I still pick Sakara by KO, because I dont know anything about McFedries.
Brandon Vera vs Frank Mir (Heavyweight)
Besides the GSP/Hughes fight, this is the fight I look forward the most to watch. Vera has been making a name for himself, and deservedly so. This could be a big test for “The Truth” Vera, depending on which Mir shows up. Frank was so fantastic to watch, and fast before his accident, but ever since then, he has seemed always less than prepared. I guess it all depends how much he controls his nutrition (no more KFC we hope). If Mir shows up out of shape again like that, I dont think Dana will be too happy! Okay, lets assume for the sake of the argument that we get the old Mir back, can Vera beat him? I think so, even back then Mir’s problem was his cardio, he had to win early. I believe this will be the same. The question, will Vera be able to submit Frank? The new Frank came close to getting submitted by Cristenson, back in July. Vera should win, but I dont think he’ll be able to submit Frank, so would Vera KO Frank? Maybe. In the end, I’m picking Vera by decision.
Tim Sylvia vs Jeff Monson (Heavyweight Championship)
This fight really bores me, but it has to happen, as The Snowman has been tearing through the division. He is a Monster on the ground, and Sylvia has no ground game to speak of. I doubt he’ll be able to take Sylvia down easily, he will get punched hard by Tim. It would be nice to see Jeff get Sylvia down, but my gut feel says first round TKO for Sylvia.
Matt Hughes vs Georges St.Pierre (Welterweight)Be ready to hear all the overused superlatives from Mike Goldberg “this is the most anticipated fight in the history of the UFC”. For many fans (including me) and GSP, that is no question, I can think of any fighter who’s had a longer road back to the title. Okay, let’s analyze this; GSP standup is much better than Matt’s. Ground game and clinch is probably very equal, with the edge to Matt if he gets top position on the ground. The key to GSP’s win is to not be under Matt. This is going to be a close fight. Hughes may get into trouble, but will not give in. If BJ Penn could not submit Matt in his last fight, I dont see GSP doing it either. Can Matt submit GSP again? That is possible, but much less likely, GSP has improved much more since their last fight. GNP by GSP? possible. This is so close to call, but it’s time for a new champ. In the end I have to pick GSP by decision.
Topics: All Topics, MMA, Stephan Marceau, UFC | 10 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
GSP by GNP in Round 3 🙂 (not just cos it rhymes).
The rest of the card is good but I have a feeling it will all go in a blur waiting for the main event.
Whoopy! A UFC card to be excited about!
I really, really want GSP to win. Really.
And the reference to Goldberg’s superlatives was very satisfying, thank you.
Apparently, the most exciting, most anticipated match in MMA history happens in every UFC.
It must be fun in the Goldberg household…
“I am currently taking the most anticipated dump in bathroom history. Now I am wiping my ass with the most exciting piece of toilet paper in the history of the sport. And don’t forget later tonight, live here on Spike TV, the most anticipated spaghettie bolognese dinner EVER.”
…not to mention the highly anticipated two minutes with wifey after the seriously contentious rugrats are put to sleep…
Good analysis! I’m looking for a GSP stoppage in Round 3 as well.
I think Sylvia better be on with his takedown defence or he’s going to lose that favorite bedtime toy of his (does he ever take that belt off?).
I want Mir to win…but he needs to show up. Vera by submission or TKO, late round 2 or early round 3.
I never know how to call a Joe Stevenson fight. Depends which Joe shows up.
That flying knee to Terry Martin was the best flying knee I’ve seen. Irving caught him right on the button as Martin was shooting in. Spencer Fisher did something similar with a forward flip after…but as it only took his opponent down for TKO, I can’t call it the greatest ever (I’d sound too much like Goldie). 😉 If Irving can pull that again…wow.
Side note: Do you get the impression that even Rogan is getting tired of Goldie’s inane commentary?
monkeymatt, you have me in tears with with the Goldberg household episode!
Honestly, I dont know how Rogan keeps a straight face!
Side note: Do you get the impression that even Rogan is getting tired of Goldie’s inane commentary?
I haven’t been following UFC stuff for that long, but my wife has taken to calling him “Doucheberg,” and one of the first things we picked up on is that a.) Joe doesn’t think much of him and b.) Goldberg thinks Joe’s a know-it-all and resents him for it.
The recent squabble over whether kicks to the leg that make a loud smack vs. kicks to the leg that make a dull thud and which was more painful was an excruciating illustration of that dynamic.
I understand that Goldberg is there to provide a steady stream of noise leavened with the occasional endorsement, but he brings out a terrible dynamic in Joe, who sometimes falls to reciting the most obvious action to stop the continual drip of Goldbergian blather.
Weird, because I came to UFC thinking Rogan was the douchebag and now I feel sorry for him having to indulge Goldberg.
It might be time for a new champ in the welterweight division, but it’s not gonna happen on that night. I know a lot of people don’t really like Matt Hughes, but come on the guy bulldozes over everybody they put in front of him. He knows his strengths and plays to them. Yeah, he might be cocky and arrogant and all that jazz, but the guy can get it done in the cage and that’s what matters. Hughes will win and GSP will just have to try again later.
Tim Sylvia on the other hand bores me to death, I hope Monson wins cause the heavyweights need a more interesting figure head.
And yes, Goldberg is thoroughly annoying.
“Mishima by submission, Mishima is crazy with the ankle and leg locks.”
Actually, he isn’t. He’s finished two, maybe three fights that way in his career, and they weren’t against the most elite of fighters. As much as I like Mishama, with his bad neck, knees and supposed lack of training recently, I’ll be surprised to see him win this. I hope he does pull it off and make a good return though.
Allen says:
“Actually, he isn’t. He’s finished two, maybe three fights that way in his career, and they weren’t against the most elite of fighters. As much as I like Mishama, with his bad neck, knees and supposed lack of training recently, I’ll be surprised to see him win this. I hope he does pull it off and make a good return though. ”
Is this what passes for “journalism” on this website? Even as an opinion piece or analysis its a total piece of garbage.
If its an analysis maybe you could actually, you know, do some research which with you would use the information to analyze?
Can you maybe actually know something about the fighters?
i.e. Mishima is crazy with leg and ankle locks? Why, because he’s Japanese? Imanari – is crazy with leg and ankle locks.
i.e. James IRVIN not James Irving – this is not something that is hard given a monkey could use Sherdog or any other mma site to garner this information.
i.e.”If BJ Penn could not submit Matt, I dont see GSP doing it either.”
– with a resource as simple as fight finder I think you could have easily found this was completely incorrect.
i.e. You pick fights based on “I don’t know anything about this guy” – so I will just pick his opponent to win OR you “flip a coin”
In reality with a lot of the fights it appears that the most research you did was consult Fight Finder and you had difficulty using that correctly.
I know Zach’s trying to let people contribute – but let’s at least have a bit of oversight before I waste my time reading garbage like this again.
If I edit articles, then people scream censorship. If I don’t edit articles, people ask for oversight on content.
I think there’s some pretty solid middle ground between sensorship and EDITING.
Zach that “analysis” was complete garbage. I’m sorry but I (and I’m sure others) enjoy this site and its articles – but this one was such a piece of crap. It informed people of very little information, some of which was completely incorrect – most due to poor research.
Does that mean all I have to do is have a relevant title to submit an article and you won’t look at its content?