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UFN TUF Finale open-thread
By Zach Arnold | November 9, 2006
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Here’s the fight card line-up for this Saturday’s event that will air on Spike TV.
- Predict the TV rating that the show will draw on Spike TV (I pick 1.2).
- Make predictions for the main fights (or for all of them).
(Admin note: If you submit a comment to any of the threads and it doesn’t appear right away, do not be concerned. There is a delay right now.)
Topics: All Topics, Media, MMA, UFC, Zach Arnold | 28 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Welterweigt – Matt Serra – because I like him! It’s going to be WAR though.
Middleweight – Cote cannot handle Lutter.
Rating…dunno the scale. Now that “the Count” is out…Serra/Lytle is going to be the only fight I want to watch. I predict low.
The two top matches are very even. However, given that TUF this season did some poor ratings, I don’t think those four guys have a lot of buzz going for them into this show. I hope to be proven wrong.
Zach, do you think the concept of the show has fizzled? I mean, I just like all things MMA, I’ll watch anyway probably, so I’m not really the best judge of that. Or was it just better with young and/or unknown fighters?
By the way, I like Cote. I just don’t think he’s got enough for Lutter. For once, I hope to be wrong.
I wonder about that. I think the concept has some legs, but it has to be done differently.
People bought into “amateurs” rising through the UFC system through the show (like Bonnar) and feeling as if they were watching a part of history, a part of history in which you felt that you were watching the making of a true star.
This season’s TUF theme was redemption for fighters who didn’t achieve what they ultimately wanted. The audience, in my opinion, looked at that and looked at the fighters as a bunch of has-beens, washed up guys (as opposed to buying into the premise that these guys deserved a second chance).
Also, this season’s series did not feature much personality or colorful television.
I agree with Zach…very even matches. I usually do a full analysis, but work is crazy this week.
I really like Matt Sera, but he will have a tough time with Lytle, the key will be to bring him down, I’m pick Sera by decision.
On the other match…difficult to pick as well. Patrick always failed at the big times, but he look like he’s improved a lot, so I’m picking Patrick over Luter!
The show will do around a 1.0
As for my picks, here is a quickie version (full version will be posted on my site tonight or tomorrow)
Serra vs Lytle- Serra
Cote vs Lutter- Cote
Thomas vs Clementi- Thomas
Rivera vs Dewees- Dewees
Spratt vs Jackson- Spratt
Smith vs Sell- Smith
McCarthy vs Ray- McCarthy
Leites vs Kampmann- Leites
I’m a bit scared about the Serra/Lytle winner facing either GSP or Hughes. The same can be said for the Lutter/Cote winner having to face Anderson Silva. Ouch.
I had you in mind when I made my first blog post today Zach. On my desk in front of me is that stupid ass money order & envelope. It will get mailed out today. I’ve been busy and had a bout of metal retardation earlier this week. She remembered to stamp it this time!!!
I don’t think the concept fizzled out. I think the problem is that professionals are far less likely to do the things that made previous seasons enjoyable. The crazy antics in the house, the exciting fights, etc. The pros that were on this season treated this as a job, and their goal was to win, and in the process we saw less excitement in the house, and far less exciting fights because professional fighters who have already been there aren’t willing to take the same kind of chances.
This isn’t a knock on professional fighters, but I don’t think the TUF concept was created for them.
I’m a diehard MMA fan so as long as TUF is on I’ll be watching. But many of my friends who are casual MMA fans (or for some not even MMA fans but strictly TUF fans) have been turned off of this season for the exact reasons that Zach laid out. They aren’t familiar with this season’s cast and looked at them as washed up has-beens. In fact most of the people I know who fall into the casual MMA fan category have already stopped tuning in. They don’t care about these fighters, as far as they’re concerned they blew their shot. They’d rather see a cast of fighters who haven’t had the chance to fight in the UFC yet. They also have a very hard time believing (and I agree with them on this) that anyone from this season has a chance in hell at beating either GSP, Hughes, or Silva.
In regards to the professionals not doing the silly antics that the younger guys did, do you guys think that the “Mikey through the wall” stunt was coreographed? It sure seemed that way to me. In any event here are my picks:
Lytle
Cote
Thomas
Dewees
Spratt
Sell
McCarthy
Leites
rating: 1.0 for lack of star power in relation to earlier shows
I think the problem with the show is that time and time again its produced boring and unexciting fights. Most of them have amounted to uninspired sparring sessions and underlines that the UFC has a problem producing exciting and competitive fights. They will always produce some no doubt…but too many times its either long decision snoozers or lopsided dominations.
I agree about experienced fighters probably being a turnoff, but also think over-saturation has been a big issue with how quickly this season came after TUF 3. Another factor is surely the lack of camera time/heat for/between the coaches. And, of course, every week another 100k viewers couldn’t stand listening to Matt Serra anymore 🙂
Yeah, the ‘Washed Up’ factor has turned people off, and with the ratings dropping week after week there was never an amazing match to pump the series back up. They went against the grain of many tried and true reality show concepts this season like not kicking the losing fighters out and I think that was a big part too. The fact that they tossed Jackson off the show for breaking the rules made sure no one was gonna step out of line or be entertaining. At this point the fighters are just too concerned with protecting their butts and not ending up burning their bridges with the UFC that it doesn’t make for very exciting television, in the house or in the ring.
Past that, it’s a pretty big blow to not have Bisping included in this card. That was the only fight i was excited for. I’ll watch it, and I’m sure many others will, so I expect the show to draw a 1.4 – 1.7 rating, but wouldn’t be surprised if it hits 2.0.
I’d make predictions, but i don’t care enough. Whoever wins is gonna have their asses handed to them by the reigning champs. And really, what are they gonna do then? Many of these guys are past the point where they can hang in the top contenders section of the UFC. This isn’t like earlier seasons where half the guys were the next batch of rising stars. Hence why this season’s concept has not been a hit.
Oh, just a side note to the fact that this event also sets the stage for those aforementioned lopsided and unexciting championship matches. Which means UFC fans will be suffering through this uninspired season’s TUF even after the show ends.
I don’t know if the UFC is still doing the thing where they give fighters on TUF who win by KO or sub 5000 dollars (partially because I haven’t watched that much of the show this season), but they should do it, and make it 10000 dollars per KO/submission. I think what has happened this season, is that with no household drama, and no particularly exciting/crazy fighters, the audience has lost interest. There have been too many fights this season that featured non-finishes and mutual respect. I want to see the TUF formula tweaked and changed week to week, so that there is an aura of unpredictability and excitement that has been lacking this current season.
Also, there are no more team-coach relationships. That was one of the cool things about seasons 1/2/3; Chuck pulling for his guys and Randy pulling for his guys, and the house being divided along team/coach lines. Also the drama of the coaches fighting at the end of the season was great in season 1, as in season 3. This season the coaches have been an afterthought, and have added nothing to the product.
The sad reality is that there aren’t many viewers who are going to watch (perceived) b-level fighters lying on top of each other for 15 minutes in an attempt to win a decision. I have said for a long time that the UFC needs to allow knees to the head of a downed fighter, and after watching some of the TUF 4 matches, I think that having an audience would help the product as well. With an audience comes boos, and as terrible as some of these fights have been, boos would certainly get the ref to stand up the fight quicker, and would also hopefully encourage the fighters to do more than lay and pray. Again I haven’t seen all the fights from this season, but I can’t recall a single fight that ended with a KO on the feet. That is fucking terrible, and if the sport is dominated by boring grapplers content to stay in the guard and throw elbows designed to cut their opponents (as opposed to trying to pass the guard or working for submissions), there won’t be as much of a future for mma in this country as we had hoped.
I am also of the opinion that there is too much dead time on the shows, and not enough heat between fighters. There seems to be a genuine affinity between most of the fighters, which, while nice, does not make for compelling television at all. I don’t really recall what the challenges were on this show, but if I were in charge, the challenge would be a 3 round boxing or kickboxing match (with no headgear and no shin pads) with the same 10,000 dollar KO bonus attached, and the winner’s team would get to choose who fights. That would create a lot more excitement than simply watching the deathly slow generic material that goes on during the first 40 minutes of each episode.
Serra vs Lytle- Lytle
Cote vs Lutter- Lutter (zzzz fest once travis takes him down)
Thomas vs Clementi- Thomas
Rivera vs Dewees- Rivera after listening to the experts (I thought Edwin personally)
Spratt vs Jackson- Jackson
Smith vs Sell- Sell
McCarthy vs Ray- McCarthy
Leites vs Kampmann- Leites
I think it will do a 1.3, even though I dont really know what those figures actually mean 😛
This is a nice undercard. If it had a main event it would be as good as some UFC PPVs.
Serra vs Lytle = Lytle by decision
Cote vs Lutter = Cote by decision
Thomas vs Clementi- Thomas by sub
Rivera vs Dewees- Rivery by decision
Spratt vs Jackson- Jackson TKO 2nd
Smith vs Sell- Sell by sub in the 3rd
McCarthy vs Ray- McCarthy sub in the 2nd
Leites vs Kampmann- Aren’t their Visa issues with Leites? Anyway…Leites by anything he wants
By the way, does anyone else think the special should be in relatively the same time slot the week after the normal show ends? I wish it was tonight…TUF Finale is more of a pre-weekend get together than what I want to be doing on Fri or Sat night (I’ll be recording it on my DVR.)
I think this show could suffer by being on Saturday. Saturday is a terrible night for TV. This card doesn’t offer a compelling reason to skip whatever it is you have planned for Saturday. Especially since next Saturday is a must see UFC event. In addition Klitschko/Brock which is lackluster itself (at least on paper maybe it’ll be good) looks like a better event to watch.
Would be a travesty not to have MMANews.com interview with Brandon “The Truth” Vera included in one of your daily “open threads.” This is the most interactive interview in history, in terms of people taking one side or the other on many issues he brags up.
Enjoy the full interview at:
http://www.mmanews.com/page.php?page=brandonvera1
The winners of TUF4 aren’t exactly Top 5 level talent. With the UFC Champions fighting 3 times a year, I don’t mind a “lesser” challenger this way. At least we know the winners will be the best of 8 veterans.
Lytle vs. Serra is a toss up. If I had to pick, it would be Serra.
Lutter vs. Cote – I think Lutter will win. As a Matt Lindland fan, I kind of want to see Lutter beat Cote then beat Silva. Only showing that Lindland is far superior then the champion (Lutter) who he dominated in every aspect of the fight game.
Clementi vs. Thomas – Thomas should win.
Couldn’t really care about the rest. A lot of guys who shouldn’t be in the UFC anymore except one or two fighters.
A very weak card … the UFC needs this event to be great like the past TUF finales. I don’t think you can discount how important it is to their PPVs that they keep the Spike events strong. I wouldn’t be surprised if you see the TUF winners fighting the champions on Spike.
Why in the heck can’t I leave a comment below any of the other recent stories?
Because I can’t get the settings to work for me to be able to moderate every comment, I’ve decided to turn comments on or comments off based on each individual thread. I will label posts in the future with “comments on” or “comments off” to alert readers.
Serra vs Lytle – Serra by sub
Cote vs Lutter – Cote by decision or KO
Thomas vs Clementi – Clementi by TKO
Rivera vs Dewees – Dewees by sub
Spratt vs Jackson – Spratt by KO or TKO
Smith vs Sell – Sell by decision
McCarthy vs Ray – McCarthy by sub
Leites vs Kampmann – Kampmann by KO or TKO
Oh, and i say it’ll get an 1.4 rating
I’ll say 1.3. Anything higher is a miracle.
And I see people here counting the commercials. So far 22 in 31 minutes.