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UFC 91 – The PPV buyrate expectations game
By Zach Arnold | November 11, 2008
It was only a few months ago when everyone inside the Mixed Martial Arts business thought that Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar could break all-time PPV buyrates record for UFC (meaning drawing more than the 1.2-1.4 million PPV buys that Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz drew.)
Then, the American economy went into free-fall thanks to the credit crunch. Still, expectations were high that this fight could draw well. Then, UFC 90 on October 25th in Chicago happened, and there was little-to-no promotion for the Couture/Lesnar fight on PPV. Dave Meltzer lowered his expectations of the buyrate for the match to 750,000.
This week, UFC President Dana White came out and claimed that Couture/Lesnar will draw 1.2 million PPV buys. White has told the media that ‘the fight will sell itself’ in response to questions from reporters as to why UFC is not marketing the fight harder.
However, there are signs that interest in Couture vs. Lesnar is good, but not great. MMA Payout is reporting that the TV hype special for UFC 91 drew around a 0.4-0.5 cable rating, which is lower than cable ratings for previous UFC hype shows. In addition to the lower cable rating, there also has been lower interest in ticket purchasing for UFC 91 due to the high prices UFC is asking for in regards to expensive seats (they have been charging PRIDE-level ticket prices). In order to entice expensive ticket sales, UFC has recently packaged two $1,000 tickets along with gambling money, hotel accomodations, and other goodies in a $2,500 package in order to try to get more people to show up at the live event.
Given all of the information above, it’s time to predict the buyrate for UFC 91. Pick one of the numbers and give your reasoning as to why you chose it:
a) Under 500,000 PPV buys
b) 500,000 ~ 650,000 PPV buys
c) 650,000 ~ 800,000 PPV buys
d) Over 800,000 PPV buys
Topics: MMA, Media, UFC, Zach Arnold | 54 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback | Share This
1. Boxing’s big stars (RJJ, ODLH, & FMJ), are all out of the big stage of boxing at the end of the year (if not already. Boxing has not really replaced these stars.
2. With the exception of David Haye & Chad Dawson, boxing has absolutely no potential stars above Welterweight. And even these two guys are guarantees for selling big PPV’s.
3. Manny being younger then Brock means nothing. The guy has 50 fights in him. No matter the age, typically even the best fighters only have so many big fights in them before a slowdown occurs.
I haven’t said boxing is dead, but it continues to decline. Free TV boxing is now basically non-existant. HBO is seeing a decline in boxing ratings. And both HBO & Showtime are cutting their boxing budgets for next year. Not to mention there is really no younger American fanbase watching this sport.
That spells trouble. And when Couture/Lesnar does big buys, it will only show that the post-ODLH era of boxing will be bleak.
Oh lord, 45. Did Lou Dibella take your lunch money? Sure, Manny’s gonna retire soon and Floyd’s really gone for good. You may be the only person to truly believe that.
HBO’s boxing ratings are down? Examples?
No younger fanbase? You mean like latinos? Or African Americans?
Couture/Lesnar won’t even do the big buys of Tito/Liddell II from 2 years ago. What would it prove?
“The Gaijin,
A movie lasts 2 hours, and for a family of 4, it costs $40. So how long entertainment lasts is not an indicator.”
TIME magazine just ran an article on the current economy and consumer trends – movies and entertainment spending is in the negative and the trend indicates that spending is moving even further into the negatives going forward.
How many families of 4 are watching the UFC?
BTW – I do really hope this event does amazing business.
I’m only arguing against this mantra that I continually see chanted across message boards that entertainment spending goes up during recessions (not completely true), therefore the UFC’s business going to actually improve.
There’s way to many variables at play to make any type of definitive statement obviously, but the people who are making these claims like some kind of QED formula are living in a dream world.