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Dopes caught doping at big rates
By Zach Arnold | July 18, 2007
By Zach Arnold
Keep your eyes open for any further reports at MMA California.
The California State Athletic Commission released the latest drug test-related suspension figures from the time period of 3/31/2007 to 7/6/2007. Within that three month time-span, there were 28 failed drug tests – 20 of them in MMA plus Johnnie Morton refusing to take a test (MMA testing over a period of 17 events), 5 in boxing (over a period of 28 events), and 2 in kickboxing.
Do the math – that means 5 out of every 7 drug test failures in California were related to MMA, or a little over 70%. If you count Morton’s refusal to take a drug test as a testing failure (which naturally you should), then the ratio would hit 3 out of every 4 (21/28) drug test failures (75%).
More percentages – you were likely to catch a fighter doping at a boxing show at an 18% rate (5/28), whereas you had a 118-124% rate (20/17 or 21/17) of catching a fighter doping at an MMA show in California. In other words, the CSAC was practically guaranteed to find at least one fighter doping at an MMA show. A virtual lock.
One other note – the CSAC tested at a total of 48 shows (17 MMA, 28 boxing, 3 kickboxing). MMA events only accounted for around 35% (17/48) of the total testing done by CSAC, yet accounted for 70-75% (20/28 or 21/28) of the total drug suspensions in the time period.
Out of the 28 test failures, 17 were for drugs of abuse (marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamines, and amphetamines) and 9 were for steroids. 1 for Morton refusing his test and 1 for a fighter actually manipulating the tap water in their drug testing kit.
A further look at the 9 steroid suspensions – out of those suspensions, 4 of them showed fighters (MMA, boxing, and kickboxing) with elevated T/E ratios. What those T/E numbers were, I do not know. Yesterday, I sent a message asking the CSAC what constitutes a T/E ratio needed to fail their drug test and I did not hear back from them. My guess is that it’s 4:1, which is a standard ratio in sports tests. Two of the nine steroid suspensions involved the use of Boldenone (Phil Baroni – MMA, James Toney – boxing).
Information about CSAC drug testing
What stood out to me is that the CSAC doesn’t test every fighter for steroids or drugs of abuse. The fact that they’re catching so many fighters based on random testing is intriguing.
Mixed Martial Arts
Events where all athletes were tested for drugs of abuse and steroids = 3
Events where all athletes were tested for drugs of abuse and random testing for steroids = 2
Events where there is random testing for both drugs of abuse and steroids = 12
Boxing
Events where all athletes were tested for drugs of abuse and steroids = 3
Events where all athletes were tested for drugs of abuse and random testing for steroids = 2
Events where there is random testing for both drugs of abuse and steroids = 23
Thoughts
If I had to make a solid, educated guess about which three MMA shows had every fighter tested for both drugs of abuse and steroids, two of those three shows would be the K-1 Dynamite at the L.A. Coliseum (6/2) event and the StrikeForce event at HP Pavilion (6/22). It should come as no surprise, then, that 5 out of the 20 MMA drug-related suspensions happened on these two shows (Tim Persey – methamphetamines, Johnnie Morton – refused test, Royce Gracie – nandrolone, Carter Williams – cocaine, Phil Baroni – boldenone & stanozolol).
The idea that you could extrapolate the quarterly drug suspensions into a year-long total and come up with an estimated potential of 80 MMA drug suspensions in California sounds preposterous, but it’s on the verge of becoming a reality. In 2006 (from March 2006 to the end of December 2006), at least 23 MMA fighters failed drug tests.
Now put that into context – there were 23 MMA suspensions for drugs in a 9-month period of time in 2006. From late March 2007 to early July 2007, there were 20 MMA suspensions. That is serious time compression as far as getting the same test results. That’s a 300% increase in guys getting busted.
I realize that these stats are going to draw a big argument as to whether or not the athletic commissions should test for marijuana. The reality is that if you’re going to fight in California, stay away from the cannabis before testing.
Conclusions
I have two conclusions based on the data presented here by the CSAC.
1) California is busting a lot of fighters based on the sheer number of events happening.
2) It’s time for a Test One, Test All drug policy. I was surprised that there is so much random testing going on, as opposed to every fighter being tested. There is a major drug problem in the MMA scene in California and there’s no reason why everyone should not be tested.
Playing with the numbers (a hypothetical)
The following may not be accurate, so don’t look at this portion of the post as super-accurate or hard-news. This is purely me thinking out loud, trying to formulate some numbers and rationalize the data the CSAC presented.
If you thought a percentage rate over 100% didn’t make sense when you first read it, don’t worry. I thought the same thing. My next question, after computing the percentage, was to figure out how many shows had all the fighters tested for drugs and how many had random testing. (That data is up above in this post). Naturally, my next thought was the following: If the failure rate during this time period in California is in the 118-124% range (which is absurd to think about), how many fighters would be suspended in the CSAC had implemented full drug testing at every event?
We already know the hard numbers (20 MMA fighters out of 28 failed drug tests). We know that the CSAC tested all fighters for drugs of abuse and steroids at three shows, two of which we have already guessed and probably gotten right. At those two events, we had 5 drug suspensions. There were a total of 17 MMA events in the quarter period that the CSAC tested in.
1) We know that the CSAC tested every fighter at three shows, and we have suspected data for two of those three shows (K-1 at the LA Coliseum and StrikeForce in San Jose). What if we extrapolated the failures on those two shows and applied it to the 17 total shows the CSAC could have implemented full testing at in the time period?
The equation – 5 testing failures (Persey, Baroni, Royce, Morton, Williams) at 2 shows with full testing = x amount of testing failures at 17 shows with full testing
This is basic algebra from here featuring cross-multiplication. 5 testing failures * 17 total shows with full testing = x amount of total failures and 2 shows with full testing.
5 x 17 = 2x, 85 = 2x, x = 42.5 (round up to 43).
Now, does 43 MMA fighters being suspended at 17 California MMA shows if there was full drug testing at each show sound right to you? It wouldn’t sound so crazy if the hard data we are extrapolating from didn’t already tell a very troubling pattern.
Realistically, 43 fighters out of 17 MMA events would be a 252% clip, which is a little over double what the 118% percentage rate is (which includes most shows only having random testing). In fact, dare I say that 43 would be a conservative hypothesis and that 50 might be more accurate for an extrapolation?
Topics: Boxing, Media, MMA, Zach Arnold | 57 Comments » | Permalink | Trackback |
Are Zach Arnold and Tomer Chen still working on a longer piece about drug use in MMA?
The long answer is yes. The reason you haven’t seen the article(s) is because I’ve been waiting from comments from certain individuals on-the-record. I’ve been real patient, in my opinion, and the patience is running out quickly.
[…] Zach Arnold from Fight Opinion has crunched the CSAC numbers regarding MMA fighters who failed their drug tests. The results are simply staggering. […]
I wouldn’t hold out for Hellwig, bro.
You also know that you had 17 MMA events in that period.
You had 21 failures (including the refused the test failure), 6 of them at 2 events.
So you had one failure per card at the other events.
I’m in favor of 100% testing in any case, because I’d like the sport to be drug free. I think it’s bad for the fighters health, and I think it’s bad for the sport’s reputation.
Also interesting to note is that boxing had almost twice as many events during that period, but they still only had 100% testing for abusive drugs and steroids at two shows (same as MMA) and 100% testing for abusive with random for steroids at three shows (same as MMA).
So MMA cards are already almost twice as likely to be tested 100% for drugs of abuse or steroids than boxing cards.
My personal opinion is that one positive test per card with 100% testing is too high, and certainly 21 on 17 is too high with many of those shows being randomly tested. Suspensions should be longer. In particular, I think that UFC contracts going forward should include clauses requiring mandatory testing at all events and permitting public disclosure of results. There’s nothing like sunlight to clean up things like this.
I think Zack is right. People are cagey about on the record stuff these days. Like Vince McMahon on Steroid use. Oh, wait, that wasn’t cagey, that was a guy in denial…
FYI, the link to mmacalifornia.net gets blocked with the message that this site is a known spam site. Erin should look into this.
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“Also interesting to note is that boxing had almost twice as many events during that period, but they still only had 100% testing for abusive drugs and steroids at two shows (same as MMA) and 100% testing for abusive with random for steroids at three shows (same as MMA).
So MMA cards are already almost twice as likely to be tested 100% for drugs of abuse or steroids than boxing cards.”
Not quite true. Most of the boxing (and MMA) cards overseen by the CSAC are small shows. They take place in a hotel ballroom of a small arena before a crowd of several hundred to a few thousand people. Those shows and event are not profit centers, not televised widely, and do not feature top-level athletes.
The boxing (and mma) shows that do feature top athletes competing on national television or ppv in front of 10,000 in a major arena are given greater scrutiny. During that time, the major boxing shows were Dan Goossen’s 5/24 event from the HP Pavilion and Don Chargin’s 4/12 card at ARCO Arena and Gary Shaw 6/1 SHOBOX card from the Chumash Casino in Santa Ynez. (Other events earlier in the year included another Goossen show at the HP Pavilion, Bob Arum’s HBO card from the Honda Center, and a Gary Shaw card at the Home Depot Center)
Events held in major-league stadia or arenas are a world different from the Irvine Marriott or the Radisson Sacramento. If an MMA ppv is taking place at the Coliseum or HP Pavilion, it appears to be receiving the same scrutiny as an HBO or Versus boxing card.
But in 2007, California mma has a greater proportion of top-level events, while boxing has far more club shows.
Your math is screwy, you clearly failed math in highschool. But the point is well taken; doping in MMA is rampant.
One question, how can you have more than 100% chance of doing something? I think you just used the chance of fighters testing positive out of all fighters at an event and mixed it up with the chances a fighter is tested positive per event–hence the over 100% number.
Make that the percentage of fighters tested positive per event versus the chance an event has at LEAST one fighter tested positive. In either case, it still can’t be over 100%. =)
Actually, the 1.18 (118%) is indicative of the average number of fighters per MMA event that would fail a drug test. It shouldn’t have been a percentage, as it’s not dealing with probabilities, just an average.
Word has it that Hermes Franca has tested positive for a banned substance.
I should re-phrase my last post. 118% is technically viable as an alternative for 1.18 (or 20/17), but it has to be defined in the context of the relationship. In this case, it would mean “Compared to 100% of the events ran during this period of time (17 events), there was a drug test failure of 118 (20 failed tests)% “. Having a 118% isn’t impossible since we aren’t talking about parts of a whole (IE: 3/4 of a cake) or probability of an event, just a relationship between two independent factors (MMA events ran and number of failed tests).
MMAWeekly has posted a statement from Franca admiting that he did test positve.
Am I reading MMAWeekly correctly?
BOTH Sherk AND Franca tested positive? This is just too rich…
Oh, the roid shark…
No surprise there to anyone with eyes.
Tomer, if you’re just talking about “a relationship between two independent factors”, you shouldn’t use a percentage, you should just use a ratio.
If you’re going to use a true percentage, you should it as # positive tests / total # tests. End of story. Any other way of using percentages in this type of scenario is misleading at best.
Yup, just got the notice that both sherk and Franca tested postitve. Good greif.
So I guess the Penn fight at UFC 78 will be a title fight after all! =)
Wow. I wanted to believe in Sherk. i really did. Now what?
Well, this was a well-timed article. Losing both participants in a UFC title fight — now that’s something. Franca I understand from his explanation, but Sherk? Amazing.
(P.S. I changed my FightOpinion login name from Euthyphro to what I use on my website)
Doesn’t Sherk/Franca result no get made to a no-contest? And in that case does the belt not reside with the holder before the match? Unless the title is vacated CSAC (I don’t think they can) or the UFC (oh, I’m SURE they can), Sherk retains the belt.
Of course Dana SHOULD vacate it…but that’s a whole ‘nother story…
MMA athletes really have to start ACTING like they’re in the proffessional sport they’re trying to portray MMA as being. Most of the positives in MMA appear to be moronic cases of misjudgment, often related to healing injuries or use of street drugs. Franca is another one on this list. WISEN UP, for f’s sake. ACT LIKE REAL ATHLETES. This is getting so freaking ridiculous, and it really speaks against MMA’s right to be taken seriously. It’s partakers need to take it serious themselves before they can ecpect anyone on the outside to do so, and right now MMA just doesn’t deserve to take the next step towards recognition. Clean up, but most of all, wisen up.
Gassed: CSAC can not overturn outcomes. UFC will have to vacate the belt regardless with the champ suspended for a year.
I agree. My point is, though, that percents, fractions and decimals are technically interchangable. Both X1/X2 (2 interrelated factors) and X/Y (2 independent factors) can be done as a percentage. The only thing is, though, with the interrelated it is assumed that they are comparative (IE: 3 pieces of cake eaten/5 total pieces = .6 or 60% of the cake eaten) whereas the independent only shows the average amount of X in Y (IE: 20 failed testers/17 events = 1.18 failed testers per event on average or there is 118% of the total number of events in failed testers). With independent variables it’s a lot more messy because you are comparing different variables, so yeah, it’s best to keep it as a fraction or decimal.
But yeah, it was an iffy situation to use percentages, I agree. Zach should have simply said 1.18 failed testers per event on average instead, since that’s the statistically correct way of explaining the data.
I don’t think the CSAC has implemented the ‘No Contest’ turnover rule, yet.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Sherk and his title. Everyone knows he is one of Dana’s boys, but he just got suspended for an entire year… they ought to strip him and find a new opponent for Penn to face for the vacated title, but they could also choose to create an interim belt if they want to stand behind Sherk for some reason.
Regardless, that LW title post-Pulver is as cursed as WWE’s WHC-belt.
And I do wonder how 45 Huddle feels about this after acting all crazy about the Pro-Elite failures.
Guess this mean BJ vs KenFlo for the title.
Franca’s an idiot – he’ll lose far more money and likely his UFC career because of this.
With Sherk it’s no surprise, and hopefully we’ll see less of his type of fighter with the drug tests making the sport cleaner.
CStrength: I’m sure Sherk was tested after his Florian-fight in Vegas, so it’s not like we know he’s been on roids all the time.
“Nelson, who said Sherk takes 22 over-the-counter supplements a day, admitted he had not yet spoken to the UFC lightweight champion about the positive test.”
He pumps his body with 22 supplements a day!?! Man, you’re basically concocting your own drug if you take that many supplements. Does Sherk even know the exact ingredients of each of these supplements? If not, then he shouldn’t be taking them.
Sample A and B were both positive. He’s going to lose his title now, regardless if he took steroids knowingly or not. I mean, the guy did seem a little TOO buff… almost like a cartoon character.
The main reason BJ ever considered staying at 155 was to take the title off of Sherk and become the #1 LW mainstay and maineventer for that division.
Now that’s out the window with Sherk’s drug test failure, he’s going where the money fights are, which is at 170.
If Sherk is suspended and stripped of the title, WE WILL NOT BE SEEING BJ PENN FIGHTING ANYONE AT 155!!!!!
So there’s no point in speculating who BJ will face at 155 for the vacant title.
Solution:
Have a LWGP. 8 fighters over 3 events, or 16 fighters over 4. Crown the winner an “interim LW champion” and have that guy fight Sherk next year after his suspension.
HAHAHAH, the UFC doing a Grand Prix? I really wish they would do that. It would bring a nice dynamic aspect to the monotonous events.
Fuck Dana White, he is a fucking idiot who thinks he knows everything. Not that I, nor anyone else on the forums knows everything, but Dana is an asshole, to the max. He could have signed Sokodjou if he really wanted to, but he doesn’t really care that much about “the sport” after all. Fuck you Dana White. Fertittas need to bring Sakakibara to the UFC, then we’d have some events!!!
Where does the steroid use end? At least one guy on every card getting busted looks so, so bad for the sport.
Cyphron,
Those pills include over vitamins, minerals, Essential Fatty acids and whatnot.
Shame shame shame
[…] Do the math – that means 5 out of every 7 drug test failures in California were related to MMA, or a little over 70%. If you count Morton’s refusal to take a drug test as a testing failure (which naturally you should), then the ratio would hit 3 out of every 4 (21/28) drug test failures (75%). [Source: FightOpinion.com] […]
“HAHAHAH, the UFC doing a Grand Prix? I really wish they would do that. It would bring a nice dynamic aspect to the monotonous events.
Fuck Dana White, he is a fucking idiot who thinks he knows everything. Not that I, nor anyone else on the forums knows everything, but Dana is an asshole, to the max. He could have signed Sokodjou if he really wanted to, but he doesn’t really care that much about “the sport” after all. Fuck you Dana White. Fertittas need to bring Sakakibara to the UFC, then we’d have some events!!!”
Sakikabarra ran Pride into the ground. On his watch, Pride imploded. He is responsible for the first Pride USA card, arguably one of the worst cards in MMA history. As well, what do your comments have to do with drug usage in MMA? It wouldn’t hurt to make an on topic remark, once in a while.
What no one is talking about here is the fact that if Sherk is going to be stripped of his title because he cannot fight for one calendar year from the day of the fight, he will not be able to make money fighting…and this is a guy with a family to support who at one time stepped away from the cage to focus on a manual career to make ends meet and provide for his family. Plus, he only had 24k for his last fight…which if he only fights one time this year, puts him in the pay range of a BK Manager. I am not saying this to defend Sean Sherk, but to wonder what in the fuck he was thinking. Sure, Tito Ortiz can chance getting caught cause he made 210k in one fight…a guy that makes less then 25k a fight shouldn’t be chancing crap like that.
45 Huddle is here to straighten things out.
1. UFC should not strip the title from Sean Sherk until AFTER his hearing with the Athletic Commission. If they suspend him from roids from there, his belt should be gone.
2. No interm title should be created. Those should only be for injuries. If a fighter gets caught with roids, he shouldn’t even get a title shot right when he comes back.
3. Nobody is more saddened then me that Sherk got busted. I am a huge Sean Sherk fan. Have been since I saw him live for the first time at UFC 30. But I am not shocked either.
4. A lot of blame will be placed on Zuffa for this, and I think that will be unfair. Zuffa is at least trying to get the commissions involved. They are seeking regulation, and not going to states without it. Now, they can work with these states to increase the level of suspensions and fighter purse penalties, but Zuffa is not the main culprit here.
5. Companies like the IFL, who shy away from athletic commissions and have no care to drug test. These are worse then the UFC when it comes to this issue. So are the MMA companies in Japan. I don’t care if it is a cultural issue. This needs to be addressed across the entire sport.
6. Some fans might laugh at this, but don’t be shocked if some fighters enjoy fighting overseas because of the lack of regulation. There are at least a few who want nothing to do with Zuffa because of the fact that Zuffa only goes to commission states in the US.
7. People love to blame Dana White for everything, but bringing up his name in this debat is pointless. They run to regulation. Besides, do you think Dana White is happy with this? This is the last thing he needs to worry about. They just get a good champion at Lightweight, and he can’t keep needles out of his butt.
8. I don’t care what excuses Hermes Franca has. He is a cheater. That is pathetic.
As for the vacant UFC Title.
I doubt the UFC will do a Grand Prix. After the way they got screwed with the 4-Man Tournament at UFC 39/41, they probably will never do another one again.
Sadly, the UFC Lightweight Title has always had issues. Never has the title changed hands from a defending champion to a challenger. Never has a Lightweight Title fight ended on anything but a decision. And now this. Horrible. Just horrible.
45 Huddle, Sean has already been suspended by the CSAC, the suspension system works a little different in California.
Sherk’s camp says they plan to appeal, and I believe they have a shot at winning it, maybe the UFC will wait for those results before stripping his title.
This is going to make it a lot harder for anyone to deny that there is a serious drug problem in MMA and that the major promotions such as the UFC need to test everyone themselves in addition to all of the athletic commission testing. Events like the UFC 73 where the commission tests everyone are the exception, not the norm. It’s far more common to have four or six fighters on the entire card tested, or zero in the case of UFC 69 and UFC 70.
I agree Ivan, this should convince even the serious doubters that there is an alarmingly high rate of steroid use in MMA. I won’t be surprised if most states require all fighters be tested as opposed to using random testing.
45 Huddle,
I appreciate your commentary, you always make intelligent points, but why do you see it as your duty to defend Zuffa and Dana White? If you aren’t already on the payroll they should hire you as online PR agent!
I don’t see any comments above blaming the UFC for Sherk’s steroid use. I think we are ALL in agreement that the drug issue needs to be addressed across the board – that is, all promotions, domestically and internationally. I don’t hear anybody celebrating Japan’s lack of testing, do you?
Also, it costs less than $300 per fighter to test for banned stimulants, steroids, and recreational drugs, which makes it all the more ridiculous that less than half of the fighters are typically tested.
With the alarming rate of fighters caught for using steroids even with a testing system in place, it makes me wonder about Pride in Japan. Is it safe to say that 75% of all fighters in Japan are steroid freaks as well? I know, that’s a big jump in conclusion… but with no system in place, why wouldn’t most athletes use it for a competitive edge?
For example, the Wanderlei fighting in Japan was very different from the one who got KOed by Henderson. Remember the fight VS Fujita? That looked suspiciously like Roid Rage to me. Even his stare down had more “oompf” in Japan. It makes you think…
If the cost of testing is a problem, a first step is to STOP TESTING FOR CANNABIS – and any recreational drug that is not “performance enhancing”.